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Probably better than it is today...especially around the second auto bail out this country has done. I firmly believe that the artificial propping up of this mismanaged, bloated industry has kept us from true innovation that could have happened if they were allowed to fail, and people with better ideas and plans were allowed to take advantage of that failure. Same goes for TARP and AIG...let them fail, let the smaller, smarter, better leveraged businesses pick up the slack. All of this propping up of the system eliminates competition and innovation, which is what we lack today, and why we have such employment problems.
That's funny. We would have failed our way into a 40% unemployment. But maybe that's cool with you. Nothing wrong with a two decade long contraction...
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206
Nobody bailed out the Internet industry during the internet bubble in the early 2000s and today that is one of our few industries with innovation, profits, plentiful jobs and a bright future.
There's a big difference between an internet bubble popping and the implosion of the global financial and credit markets. In case you haven't noticed, this is a global economic slowdown, not an American economic slowdown.
Funny enough, however, America is doing much better than the EU (which decided austerity was better than stimulus).
Its game over for Romney. No way he can win now that Ohio is in the bag for Obama. These numbers will further cement Obama's win and add to his electoral college victory.
That's funny. We would have failed our way into a 40% unemployment. But maybe that's cool with you. Nothing wrong with a two decade long contraction...
There's a big difference between an internet bubble popping and the implosion of the global financial and credit markets. In case you haven't noticed, this is a global economic slowdown, not an American economic slowdown.
Funny enough, however, America is doing much better than the EU (which decided austerity was better than stimulus).
You have some facts or anything to back up this claim of 40% unemployment or a two decade long contraction? I mean its not like the current contraction isn't going on for a long time anyway.
You are right that there is a difference between the Internet Bubble mostly only impacting the US, and the Financial Sector issues impacting the world. It doesn't however change my opinion that the basic fundamentals of the business cycle require failure to promote growth and innovation. The more we try to limit failure, the more we limit growth and innovation.
I don't know that I'd be so quick to say the US is doing better than the EU, both of these economic cycles and the policies defining them are very early on in their life cycles.
You have some facts or anything to back up this claim of 40% unemployment or a two decade long contraction? I mean its not like the current contraction isn't going on for a long time anyway.
That's like asking "You have some facts you would die if you stayed parked on train tracks?" The best example we have of an economic contraction resulting from bank runs (which is what happened in 2008) is the Great Depression. If AIG had faltered, the whole system would have come crashing down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206
You are right that there is a difference between the Internet Bubble mostly only impacting the US, and the Financial Sector issues impacting the world. It doesn't however change my opinion that the basic fundamentals of the business cycle require failure to promote growth and innovation. The more we try to limit failure, the more we limit growth and innovation.
This wasn't a cyclical downtown. Cyclical downturns don't voraciously eat up 900,000 jobs per month and freeze up credit markets. 2008 was what we call "Armageddon."
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206
I don't know that I'd be so quick to say the US is doing better than the EU, both of these economic cycles and the policies defining them are very early on in their life cycles.
We are doing better than the EU. Europe is basically doing the same thing we did in America after the Great Depression.
That's like asking "You have some facts you would die if you stayed parked on train tracks?" The best example we have of an economic contraction resulting from bank runs (which is what happened in 2008) is the Great Depression. If AIG had faltered, the whole system would have come crashing down.
I agree that it would have caused a big meltdown (40% is still only a guess on your part) but again, the way we get to these breaking points is through the constant tinkering and manipulation of markets, and the housing bubble was most certainly man made through ill advised tinkering with a dose of horrible management from private business that needs to be punished. Unfortunately sometimes the best answer in terms of long term growth is not so comfortable in the short term. Many of these jobs that were lost shouldn't be replaced. Do we need financial analysts cranking out new products all day long that in the long run caused the melt down? Do we need people working at the ratings agencies and the SEC that didnt do their jobs? All of these are "jobs" but they damaged the economy more than they did good. Not to say that there weren't a ton of good and productive jobs lost though.
This wasn't a cyclical downtown. Cyclical downturns don't voraciously eat up 900,000 jobs per month and freeze up credit markets. 2008 was what we call "Armageddon."
We are doing better than the EU. Europe is basically doing the same thing we did in America after the Great Depression.
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, October 2012 -- Table of Contents We live in a different world now than we did during the great depression, so I'm not sure about that...I still contend that it is too early in the cycle, and quite frankly our "sh&*t has not hit the fan" yet so its hard to judge at this point. And not to sound snarky or uninterested, but linking to a 250 page PDF doesnt really help convey your point...maybe you could summarize or provide a few quotes from within to put context or give examples? I'm happy to listen to points of view, but I don't have the time right now to sift through that entire thing.
The gross domestic product, or GDP, is the total value of a nations goods and services produced within a preset period of time. Usually, GDP is measured on a calendar year basis. More precisely, GDP can be calculated by adding up the following components: consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports, or the spread between imports and exports. Consumption includes personal items such as food, utilities, rent, clothing, fuel, and financial services received by individuals. It is important to note that housing purchase costs are NOT included in this category. This is by far the largest component of GDP. Investments refer to capital expenditures which would include costs associated with building new factories, business machinery expenses, new home purchases, business inventory changes. One important note to make on investments is that stock and bond purchases are not considered in this category as they do not add to the GDP, or any actual output.
The Government spending category includes state and local governments as well as the federal government. This category is the second largest component of the gross domestic product. Items such as school teacher salaries and pensions, congressman and senator salaries, and military goods are a few of the major components.
Another important ratio that is derived using real and nominal GDP is the GDP Deflator. It can be calculated using the following formula: (Nominal GDP / Real GDP) / 100 (converts to %). The GDP deflator is key because it allows us to measure how much a year over year change in the base level of GDP (2006 to 2007 in our example) is due to inflation.
The GDP deflator is similar to the consumer price index in that it measures inflation; however, it has a distinct advantage. CPI measures a fixed basket of goods and services while the GDP deflator takes into account a much broader variety of goods and services, especially new ones that are introduced into the economy.
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,852 posts, read 10,456,964 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by t206
See, nobody that is being honest wants the economy to fail, but many conservative leaning people like myself just see the truth behind this number which is that its being driven by government/military spending which indicates that this is not about the actual private sector experiencing a recovery.
Fair enuff, but your argument (and "objectivity") might be a little more convincing if you somewhere, sometime, ever gave Obama credit for anything (like say, helping avert another Great Depression, or however slowly lowering the unemployment rate, or Bin Laden's takedown, or taking out Khadafi without a single American loss, or...)!
I mean, even a broken clock is right at least once a day, and we can probably even come up with some nice things to say about Dubya (which would be no small accomplishment...)?!
In other words, what makes makes you "doubters" any more qualified, or even "objective" than the official data you're questioning?
That's funny. We would have failed our way into a 40% unemployment. But maybe that's cool with you. Nothing wrong with a two decade long contraction...
Isnt it great that you can just make up crap using absolutely nothing to substantiate it..
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
There's a big difference between an internet bubble popping and the implosion of the global financial and credit markets. In case you haven't noticed, this is a global economic slowdown, not an American economic slowdown.
Funny enough, however, America is doing much better than the EU (which decided austerity was better than stimulus).
um, no, not really..
Its true the gdp growth of america is greater than the EU, but by time you equate the debt that was added, and needs to be paid back, and thus removing that currency from the economy, the net effect for america is actually NEGATIVE, since the debt needs to be paid for with interest.
Isnt it great that you can just make up crap using absolutely nothing to substantiate it..
by time you equate the debt that was added, and needs to be paid back, and thus removing that currency from the economy, the net effect for america is actually NEGATIVE, since the debt needs to be paid for with interest.
But by the way, NPR elaborated that 2% is still crawling. Not good enough to significantly affect the unemployment rate in itself. If unemployment goes down, it will be because more people stopped looking for work.
But spin it however you want for The One....
and OMB says 12 million jobs will be created based on where we are right now. so exactly what does Flip bring to the table? changing policies, benefits for the rich that the middle will have to deal with? Did you get enough of that under W?
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