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Old 11-05-2012, 10:05 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,523,129 times
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I know there are some polls out there saying this man has a 32% approval rating. But guys like us, we don't pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in "reality." And reality has a well-known liberal bias.

— Steven Colbert
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:55 AM
 
Location: Cape Coral
5,503 posts, read 7,338,959 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Well, there's NO guarentee that they will be RIGHT.
I think it's LIKELY but it's not a CERTAINTY.
That's not my argument. My argument is that the REASON you folks think the polls will be wrong is BOGUS (ie that ALL THOSE POLLS are somehow deliberately slanting towards Obama). That just plain dumb.

IF the polls turn out to be wrong - it will probably be because they underestimated the size of the turnout by GOP voters. That's the same issue they had with the Walker recall. Turnout is much harder to predict than preference - and turnout this time around sounds like it will be HUGE (how huge we just don't know).

I STILL think Obama will win - but we won't know until tomorrow (hopefully).

Ken
But how (and why) can they underestimate the GOP turnout? It is obvious there will be a greater GOP turnout than Democrat. (See my original post)
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:57 AM
 
Location: Cape Coral
5,503 posts, read 7,338,959 times
Reputation: 2250
Quote:
Originally Posted by adiosToreador View Post
Only someone who's hyper-partisan to a fault.

All that guy has done is take the data put out by the polls and compiled them. How in the world can an ANALYSIS of POLLS be anything but non-partisan?

Because the polls show an over weighting of democrat voters and he knows it but does not mention that in his analysis.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:00 AM
 
Location: Cape Coral
5,503 posts, read 7,338,959 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
Cell phone use skews towards Obama supporters, genius!

How could problems reaching cell phone users cause a disproportionate number of respondents being Obama supporters? Man, you guys will say anything -- anything at all, no matter how nonsensical -- to hold out hope for Romney!

Aside from that bit of insane nonsense, you obviously aren't even familiar enough with Rasmussen to know that they don't even call cell phone users.

FAQs - Rasmussen Reports™


Gee, they're a polling outlier and they don't call cell phones... ... I wonder if they two are related?
Maybe that is their problem. I don't have a landline anymore.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:02 AM
 
Location: Cape Coral
5,503 posts, read 7,338,959 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78 View Post
I think the ones stuck in two wars might argue that....granted many of them are dead.
So Obama did not expand the war in Afghanistan? And don't tell me he ended the war in Iraq. It was a done deal by Bush in Nov. 2008.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:50 AM
 
12,867 posts, read 14,921,177 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rikoshaprl View Post
So Obama did not expand the war in Afghanistan? And don't tell me he ended the war in Iraq. It was a done deal by Bush in Nov. 2008.
if the wars are over, why are we still funding them?

War Costs To Date (costofwar.com)

•Total War Funding: $1.38 trillion has been allocated to date to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, including $121.1 billion in fiscal year 2012.
•Iraq: To date, $807.4 billion has been allocated for the war in Iraq since 2003, including $10.1 billion in fiscal year 2012.
•Afghanistan: To date, $570.9 billion has been allocated for the war in Afghanistan since 2001, including $111.1 billion in fiscal year 2012.


americans are smarter than our leaders think we are.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:53 AM
 
Location: Chicago Area
12,687 posts, read 6,740,882 times
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It should be interesting to see how accurate or inaccurate the polls are this go around. The polls are in the business of predicting the outcome. PPP and Rasmussen have been the most accurate recently despite being labeled "that Democrat poll" and "that Republican poll" respectively. Every poll wants to be able to point to their own product and tout their own accuracy. They're likely to miss by a large margin this election because the dynamics are so different from 2008. We'll see what happens later today.

My prediction: We won't know who won until at least a week from now.
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Old 11-06-2012, 05:42 AM
 
Location: On the border of off the grid
3,179 posts, read 3,167,854 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78 View Post
No, I don't support "one world government".....actually I don't really care about "one world government," only the Tinfoil Party care about that.
HAPPY ELECTION DAY!

You don't even know WHAT you believe or don't believe in! You obviously don't believe in U.S. sovereignty or the Constitution as the law of the land.

Also, I don't take any issue with what the UN does because it acts on the calls of many nations, not just one, and we are apart [sic] of the UN. We did not attack Libya in the name of the USA, we did it under UN orders and provided the manpower to help them. Much like many other nations do for the UN.

No U.S. President should ever circumvent Congress and our Constitution and use U.S. military might "under UN orders". You are obviously one of the brainwashed who think the UN is all kumbaya, peace, love and make the world a better place. It's a dang shame that the UN didn't fall into the East River during hurricane Sandy!
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:24 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,343,211 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rikoshaprl View Post
But how (and why) can they underestimate the GOP turnout? It is obvious there will be a greater GOP turnout than Democrat. (See my original post)
Not necessarily. By all accounts turnout has been HUGE - and not JUST in RED states. New voter registration here in "True Blue" Washington for example, has been record-breaking - so clearly it's not JUST RED voters who are turning in gigantic numbers - and as a general rule Red voters tend to vote more reliably than Blue voters do. This has meant that when the turnout is small the GOP generally wins (because they are most likely the more-reliable GOP voters) but when the turnout is large it's usually because the Democrats are turning out in large numbers.

So, in historical terms a HUGE turnout does not generally bode well for the GOP - and that's what we're seeng this time around.

Will this time be DIFFERENT for the GOP?
Possibly - but when you combine that huge turn out with Obama having the edge in the polls, that's not such a good thing for the GOP.

Ken
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:29 AM
 
Location: On the border of off the grid
3,179 posts, read 3,167,854 times
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250,000 fewer Democrats early voting in Ohio than 4 years ago.
Bush beat Kerry by 118,000 in Ohio
Romney will take Ohio
The Jets won their 2nd away game.
Republicans will take the White House.

ROMNEY/RYAN!

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