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Even Nate Silver couldn't have predicted GOP seppuku. It isn't a coincidence that the amount of people who blame Obama is the exact percentage of people who identify as Republican. GOP is getting the blame as they should.
and why do you say they are getting the blame as they should? Has Obama bent even a little? All I keep hearing is: do what I say and we will talk later...
Not necessarily. Even the PPP poll (national) had Romney up 4 at one point after that first debate. I don't think anyone was going off of 2004 math necessarily (or pundits were necessarily going off of "math" at all). More 2008 math and simply assuming that the minority share of the vote would not increase (despite growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations).
White turnout was actually down from 2008 and 2004 by quite a bit (despite increases in the white voting age population). It was not conventional wisdom that white turnout would be down so much in sheer numbers.
Looking back, there have been roughly 3% gains in the percentage of the vote that is minority in every presidential election when compared to the previous one and in every midterm election when compared to the previous one, but that trend has somewhat slowed, with only about a 1.5% gain between 2006 and 2010 (though one could argue that 2010 was a special case). Will black voters turn out in such large numbers in 2016 (when their share of the population is not increasing) with a Democratic nominee who will probably not be black? Unlikely.. Will the Hispanic vote continue to get larger? Yes. Will whites continue to not turn out? We don't know. The idea that there is some permanent Democratic majority emerging is really a wet dream of the left. While the demographics will get harder for Republicans as the Hispanic population grows, there is no certainty that 70%+ of Hispanics will be voting Democrat in every election. Look at how well Bush did among Hispanics in 2004.
Actually, racial, sexual, ethnic and economic demographics have swung hard toward the democrats taking back the House in 2014:
More than 60% of respondents in a new CNN poll out Monday said Boehner should lose his leadership position. Only 30% said they supported him, the poll showed.
The same poll also showed that 54% of Americans polled thought it was a bad thing that the Republicans controlled the House.
The surveys come amid a slew of other polls that have shown that Republicans are bearing the brunt of the blame for the shutdown, which furloughed more than 800,000 government employees and sucked $24 billion out of the U.S. economy, according to economic analysts.
Worst case scenario?
The democrats only control the House by one seat starting in 2015.
Democrats need only to flip 17 districts to gain control of the House.
There are 17 districts held by Republicans that Obama won in 2012. There are 17 districts held by Republicans where Obama lost by 2 points or less. These are districts where because of Boehner's poor leadership anti-tea party backlash could help Democrats win seats.
and why do you say they are getting the blame as they should? Has Obama bent even a little? All I keep hearing is: do what I say and we will talk later...
Three quarters of Americans saw the intractability of the Tea Party for exactly what it was and laid the blame where it belonged.
Judging by all your posts here, you are a moderate Republican. It is Republicans like you who should be the most outraged by the way the Tea Party is attempting to tear your party apart. If voices like yours aren't raised against them, it will not be the Democrats who suffer in the fallout, but your own party.
Don't give them political cover. They don't deserve it, and they will merely use it to destroy the GOP, to whom they feel they owe no allegiance. Ted Cruz has said exactly that.
With their behavior in shutting down the government to try to prevent millions from getting affordable health care and pushing for default, the tea party branch of the GOP handed over the 2014 and 2016 elections to the Dems. House will again belong to the Dems.
In essence, the tea party has been a benefit to this nation because they have managed to destroy the GOP (and themselves with it). This because a black man was elected President and he's been doing an exceptional job.
With their behavior in shutting down the government to try to prevent millions from getting affordable health care and pushing for default, the tea party branch of the GOP handed over the 2014 and 2016 elections to the Dems. House will again belong to the Dems.
In essence, the tea party has been a benefit to this nation because they have managed to destroy the GOP (and themselves with it). This because a black man was elected President and he's been doing an exceptional job.
Ironic that the party that freed the black man was, in turn, destroyed by a black man.
With their behavior in shutting down the government to try to prevent millions from getting affordable health care and pushing for default, the tea party branch of the GOP handed over the 2014 and 2016 elections to the Dems. House will again belong to the Dems.
In essence, the tea party has been a benefit to this nation because they have managed to destroy the GOP (and themselves with it). This because a black man was elected President and he's been doing an exceptional job.
Ummm, Lexus, millions of us are now finding out that our health care is much less affordable under the "Affordable" Care Act. The plans we liked, we cannot keep. In some cases, we liked our doctors but can't keep them either. And we used to be in the 85% that had health care insurance coverage and were pretty happy with it.
One of my young adult offspring had been paying $130/month for a good Blue Cross plan, now his choices range from paying $230 to $480--and every one of these new options inflicts a higher out-of-pocket maximum exposure.
Bottom line, no matter how badly you believe the Tea Party behaved, Obama has done an exceptional job of screwing up the health care finance system in this country--probably beyond repair. Single payer or some other nationalized scheme of care will be the only way forward.
Oh, and yeah, the pro-default, anti-prosperity wing of the Tea Party hurt itself and Republicans as well. You are right about that.
But you are wrong in thinking that any criticism of the worst president since Richard Nixon must be race-based. Many of us discriminate on the basis of competence.
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tea party has decimated the GOP
House will again belong to the Dems.
