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Lock? Perhaps not, but advantage? Yes. Regardless point still stands. Cruz seems to have an advantage with the traditional Caucus voter (which in the GOP in Iowa's case tends to be socially conservative Evangelicals), Trump seems to have an advantage among those who don't traditionally vote in Caucuses. If Trump is successful in getting them out to the Caucus, he likely has the advantage, if turnout is closer to those who traditionally turnout for a GOP caucus in Iowa, Cruz likely has the advantage.
Why would a die hard partisan Democrat know much about this?
Yes he does. He has a huge ground game. A ground game that is also now bolstered by Sarah Palin's organization which is quite considerable in Iowa.
Palin never ran for anything in Iowa so there really is nothing to gauge how much of a ground game she has there or can help Trump with. Not saying she doesn't have one, or Trump doesn't have one, but at this point it is hard to determine on how strong a ground game they have there (good or bad)
Lock? Perhaps not, but advantage? Yes. Regardless point still stands. Cruz seems to have an advantage with the traditional Caucus voter (which in the GOP in Iowa's case tends to be socially conservative Evangelicals), Trump seems to have an advantage among those who don't traditionally vote in Caucuses. If Trump is successful in getting them out to the Caucus, he likely has the advantage, if turnout is closer to those who traditionally turnout for a GOP caucus in Iowa, Cruz likely has the advantage.
The last two weeks is the first time in my 68 years that I have ever been a Republican. I did that to vote for Trump - NOT Cruz! I will cast my vote for Trump and nobody else in the primary. Then I can again switch back to Independent. I presume that the 20% of Democrats, that are willing to vote for Trump, will do the same. Trump has promised a chance to break the special interest stranglehold on the election and possibly in government. I know that it is one big uphill battle; but I want to see what happens in the next four years with a President that claims he will work for us.
If he doesn't take the effort to fulfill his promises; then we will rethink our/my position.
Palin never ran for anything in Iowa so there really is nothing to gauge how much of a ground game she has there or can help Trump with. Not saying she doesn't have one, or Trump doesn't have one, but at this point it is hard to determine on how strong a ground game they have there (good or bad)
Then you only demonstrate that you do not know, what you claim to know.
Then you only demonstrate that you do not know, what you claim to know.
What??
Here is what I have said
1. Traditionally Iowa GOP Caucus voters have been heavily Evangelical and socially conservative. This is where Ted Cruz is strongest and he has done best in polls that have a larger amount of Evangelicals and the polls that have previous Caucus voting as a big piece in measuring likely turnout.
2. Trump has tended to do better in polls that include a larger amount of people who haven't voted in GOP Caucuses in the past.
3. Cruz's best path to victory is if turnout in the GOP Caucus closely resembles past GOP turnout, Trump's best path of victory is if he turns out those who have traditionally not voted in the GOP caucus.
4. Turning out those who haven't typically turned out in the past for the Caucus relies on a strong ground game. There is simply too much unknown about Trump's ground game operation (even with the help of Palin) to really definitively predict how turnout will be among those who don't typically turnout for a GOP caucus. It could be excellent, it could be poor, its just hard to be completely sure about it.
Now is there any portion of the above statements you disagree with? And if so, why?
You claimed that Palin has no ground game in Iowa.
I didn't say she had no ground game in Iowa, I said there really is no way to tell how strong her ground game in Iowa is, she hasn't run in a Primary there in which you needed to rely on a ground game.
.......I said there really is no way to tell how strong her ground game in Iowa is, she hasn't run in a Primary there in which you needed to rely on a ground game.
And that is why I said you demonstrate no knowledge of what you claim. Ultima Thule
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