Almost guaranteed that nominee will be Cruz or…. (thought, poll, regular)
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I disagree. This is not like any other time in history so relying on what was, is not going to be the reality.
Cruz is showing his true colors and they aren't pretty. He wanted to use the "holier than thou" as a platform and use deceit on the side, and for those not familiar with how Christianity is supposed to work, that is not the way. I would hope that he loses the votes of those that believe that honesty and fairness are Christian values. The polls for Trump have held pretty steady while the others came up and went down.
Do I win something here?
I just found the one person left in the US (besides the pollsters) that still has confidence in the accuracy of the polls!
Like it or not, every individual that has ever been the eventual GOP nominee has won either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Period. No exceptions.
If history is any indication, this will be a two-man race between Cruz and whomever wins NH.
The stakes are yuuuuggggeee (as someone once said…very often….and with redundancy)!!
Bottom-line: If you aren't a Cruz guy and your guy doesn't win Feb 9th, you're out of luck. It will either be time to bail completely or pick another camp to get behind.
Iowa is out of step culturally with the rest of the country. The pervasive influence of fundamentalist evangelical Christians leads to the Iowa caucus essentially determining who will not become President. To win in Iowa you have to alienate large chunks of the electorate. In the internet/social media age, the pivot back to the center for the general no longer works.
Iowa is out of step culturally with the rest of the country. The pervasive influence of fundamentalist evangelical Christians leads to the Iowa caucus essentially determining who will not become President. To win in Iowa you have to alienate large chunks of the electorate. In the internet/social media age, the pivot back to the center for the general no longer works.
Disagree but regardless, that doesn't disapprove the original point of the thread as to what history suggests will happen this cycle.
Disagree but regardless, that doesn't disapprove the original point of the thread as to what history suggests will happen this cycle.
You at least have to admit that recent history - the last two elections, would indicate that Cruz will not be the nominee. The Iowa caucus winner gets a job on Fox News or talk radio, not the GOP nomination for President. The Bible thumping it takes to win in Iowa is a big turnoff in most of the rest of the country.
You at least have to admit that recent history - the last two elections, would indicate that Cruz will not be the nominee. The Iowa caucus winner gets a job on Fox News or talk radio, not the GOP nomination for President. The Bible thumping it takes to win in Iowa is a big turnoff in most of the rest of the country.
Romney was essentially the Iowa winner last time. Santorum wasn't declared the winner until 2 1/2 weeks after the caucus was over.
Romney got what he needed from Iowa before the record was corrected.
Romney was essentially the Iowa winner last time. Santorum wasn't declared the winner until 2 1/2 weeks after the caucus was over.
Romney got what he needed from Iowa before the record was corrected.
History. It is a ***** to argue against.
It is especially hard to argue against someone that creates their own history. Huckabee and Santorum won in Iowa and neither of them got anywhere near the nomination. Which pretty much destroys your own argument regarding history and the relevancy of the past Iowa winners.
I know that you are a Cruz supporter and want to believe that winning Iowa will lead to the nomination, but by your own logic, the last eight years of history indicates that will not be the case.
This is interesting fodder for discussion but the problem is these are odds based on polls without any consideration for what has occurred historically.
Polls continue to disappoint...and they are trending downward in reliability.
Why are polls less reliable today than they were 4, 8 or 20 years ago?
It is especially hard to argue against someone that creates their own history. Huckabee and Santorum won in Iowa and neither of them got anywhere near the nomination. Which pretty much destroys your own argument regarding history and the relevancy of the past Iowa winners.
I know that you are a Cruz supporter and want to believe that winning Iowa will lead to the nomination, but by your own logic, the last eight years of history indicates that will not be the case.
A win creates momentum. Romney was declared the winner of Iowa. He rode that "faux win" into NH.
Santorum couldn't benefit from a win that wasn't declare for him until after the NH primary.
IF you don't acknowledge that, you don't understand the significance of winning an election and thus everything that occurs in a primary, means nothing. That would be odd...and would make one question why you're even spending time on the forum.
Even if I ceded your point (which I don't), Huck and Santorum came out of Iowa with little money or organization. Cruz has both....enough to run a 50-state campaign.
Disagree but regardless, that doesn't disapprove the original point of the thread as to what history suggests will happen this cycle.
History suggests that a candidate that uses profanity, openly and brazenly insults his opponents during debates, participates in Wrestlemania, openly brags about his wealth, has been married multiple times, calls for a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims," tells a journalist she has "blood coming out of her whatever," offers no specifics other than "make it great again," engages in petty Tweeting everyday, and jokes about killing journalists shouldn't place 1st and 2nd in the first two contests of the nomination process. Trump wasn't even supposed to make it this far so all of the "what normally happens" talk needs to go out of the window.
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