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The thing is, you are assuming the pie is fixed in size and that all these people who are proclaiming support for a candidate are steadfastly committed. In fact, about 40% of the electorate is flat-out undecided and a substantial portion of the rest is 'soft' in their support. This is why especially in these early states, the polls are so notoriously unreliable.
Anyway, I don't know how well Christie will do, but it will not surprise me at all if he finishes ahead of Marco Rubio in New Hampshire.
This is a good point. there are still a lot of undecideds out there. Kudos.
honestly I don't think any of them are in any position to hit 270. The bar is simply too high and demographics are too unfavorable.
Virginia has been trending D for years. They have a democratic governor and two democratic senators right now. In a mid term republicans can make gains, but in a presidential election year? forget about it.
Pennsylvania has always been republican fools gold. There are somewhere around a million more democrats than republicans here, and when Philadelphia and Pittsburgh bother to pay attention (which is usually during a presidential year, or when Ed Rendell was running for governor) Republicans winning statewide elections is nigh impossible. Democrats also just swept elections for state supreme court in an off year here by a 300K vote margin which almost NEVER happens.
Colorado is 21% Latino. To say republican favorability with latinos is "bad" this year, especially with the narrative Trump started with walls and rapists would be putting it lightly. Had Bush (who notably has a MUCH different tone with Hispanics and could have steered the narrative in a different direction) actually managed to gain any traction instead of getting steamrolled, this might be a different story. As it is, I think Colorado is a lost cause.
Likewise, Florida also seems like a swing state but really isn't. Florida has always had a lot of Hispanics, but most of them were Cubans who tended to vote republican. This is no longer the case. since the 2012 election (which went D), Puerto Rico has been in a state of complete economic meltdown under the weight of bonds it can't discharge. Its got something ludicrous like 70 billion worth of debt, and every free cent of revenue is going towards bond payments, choking the economy. Unlike Mexicans, Puerto Ricans are full US citizens and have responded by simply leaving Puerto rico and flooding into florida at the rate of thousands of families per month. Unlike Cubans, Puerto Ricans vote democratic by lopsided 70-30 margins. Florida now has more Puerto Ricans than any other US state besides New York, and this one is CLOSE. They'll easily pass New York for that #1 spot within a year.
The only state I can see being in play is Ohio, and that relies on Kasich being the nominee which is a long shot. Getting to 270 in 2016 just might not be feasible- the party may be focusing on limiting the damage to down ballot races in the house and senate, depending on who the nominee might be.
Good post.
I am particularly skeptical of the "missing conservative voter" scenario that the far right wing echoes whenever a "RINO" (anyone other than a RWNJ) loses in the general election. Four of the states that I mentioned (Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia), along with Nevada were carried twice by Dubya in elections where at a maximum in 2004, he only received 16 electoral votes beyond the minimum needed for election. Pennsylvania has long been the primary Pub target in reclaiming the Blue Wall, but thus far, it's been, Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football.
I'd rather have another election without Barack Obama before I get too comfortable with Virginia, let alone the other swing states, but the demographics of Old Dominion and Nevada in particular are breaking very badly for the GOP.
The true believers want to believe that masses of non-voting conservatives will be awakened from their crypts when Ted Cruz is nominated, but when you examine what states are contestable now, it's hard to see a rational path to victory in November.
Kasich may be the strongest GE candidate, and he has virtually no chance of being nominated.
I personally believe Christie was given a promise by one of the other candidates if he put his prosecutor's suit and tried to destroy Rubio. All it did was make me cross Christie off my potential list...enough of him and his bs.
Now, who put Christie up to it?
And I'm still a Rubio supporter.
I echo this. I too wonder who did the dirty drug deal with him and what they promised him.
And to answer the OP's question, those votes will go to either Cruz, Bush, or Kasich. Who they won't go to is Trump or Christie.
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I am particularly skeptical of the "missing conservative voter" scenario that the far right wing echoes whenever a "RINO" (anyone other than a RWNJ) loses in the general election. Four of the states that I mentioned (Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia), along with Nevada were carried twice by Dubya in elections where at a maximum in 2004, he only received 16 electoral votes beyond the minimum needed for election. Pennsylvania has long been the primary Pub target in reclaiming the Blue Wall, but thus far, it's been, Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football.
I'd rather have another election without Barack Obama before I get too comfortable with Virginia, let alone the other swing states, but the demographics of Old Dominion and Nevada in particular are breaking very badly for the GOP.
The true believers want to believe that masses of non-voting conservatives will be awakened from their crypts when Ted Cruz is nominated, but when you examine what states are contestable now, it's hard to see a rational path to victory in November.
And what will the turnout be for Hillary Clinton, if she wins the nomination for her party? Will it be close to what Barack Obama turned out?
Just as a point of reference, it is appearing that Republican turnout and enthusiasm is far higher than turnout and enthusiasm for the Democrats this year.
It is always helpful to keep in mind that there will be two candidates in the general election. Not two parties mind you, but two candidates.
Christie is top-notch VP/Cabinet material for any candidate, including Trump.
Still, I don't think he went after Rubio to help another, but it's something
that's been nagging at him. Something that annoyed him about Rubio, who
Christie can still hope to outperform in New Hampshire because he's spent
a lot of time there and he knows people will show up for him tomorrow.
Concerning Rubio's debate performance, too much is being made of the
repetitive comment. He did quite well in all other parts of the debate.
If you support Rubio it would be silly to change your vote. Do you
believe Barack Obama knows exactly what he's doing ?
Absolutely, been saying that for years.
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Until 2012, I have voted for the Democrat POTUS candidate ever since 1972, the first time I could vote. In 2012, I voted for a third party candidate because I strongly disliked both Romney and Obama, although I had voted for BO in 2008. (In hindsight, I now wish I had voted for Romney!)
Now, in 2016, the top three POTUS candidates (according to percentages of support) are Trump, Clinton and Sanders, and I don't like ANY of them for different reasons. In fact, the only candidate I do like is Kasich, even though I don't like all of his stands on the issues, because I think he is the best of the lot, and I especially like what he has done for Ohio.
So, FWIW, if the Republican candidate is not Kasich (which it almost certainly won't be), I will vote for the candidate, Republican or Democrat, who has the most moderate running mate.
And what will the turnout be for Hillary Clinton, if she wins the nomination for her party? Will it be close to what Barack Obama turned out?
Just as a point of reference, it is appearing that Republican turnout and enthusiasm is far higher than turnout and enthusiasm for the Democrats this year.
It is always helpful to keep in mind that there will be two candidates in the general election. Not two parties mind you, but two candidates.
Wasn't Republican enthusiasm supposed to carry the day in 2012?
62,039,572
That's a number that will be a benchmark in 2016.
It was the amount of votes received by George W. Bush in 2004. It remains the largest number of votes that a Pub has ever received in a presidential race, even though the number of registered voters grows with virtually every election. That's 10 million fewer votes than BHO received in 2008 and 3.9 million less than he received in 2012. If we go through another election cycle and the GOP still can't best that number, it would probably be unprecedented.
How much of that difference is due to the popularity of Obama and how much is due to a changing electorate is subject to debate. We'll have to wait until November for a definitive answer.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 02-08-2016 at 04:48 PM..
Wasn't Republican enthusiasm supposed to carry the day in 2012?
In 2012 Republicans nominated a rich guy who couldn't connect with blue-collar republicans. Romney made comments such as "corporations are people my friend" and "There are 47% ...".
Because of this Romney was only able to get 1 million more votes than John McCain.
Jeb! is the new Marco. Don't believe it? Trump does. Look at all the insults he is hurling at Jeb! today.
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