2016 Election prediction thread (John Kerry, Al Gore, voters, campaign)

[downnice]

First I think this will be a hardcore election. There will be a lot of swing states Here is what they will be in my prediction.

Note traditional swing states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado will not be shown because we know they are swing states.

Democratic States that will become purple

Oregon - This state is a lot closer than people think. Oregon Election Results Throughout the state in 2012 his vote totals went down and some counties such as Wasco were for Obama in 2008 then went to Obama. I moderate choice like Huntsman and Christie could take close counties such as Columbia and Clackamas Counties. This state will be really really close and I personalty think like Obama surprise win in Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 Oregon will go to the GOP.

Nevada - Yes Nevada is pretty liberal but only 2 counties in the state matter so for that reason it will be a swing state.

Wisconsin - Rather close in 2012. Wisconsin and Oregon have similar voting patterns and some counties such as Marquette countie were decided by a few votes. This state I also think could flip like Oregon with a moderate running. Wisconsin Election Results

Michigan - This state will be a heavy swing state IMO but I just keep on seeing it stay with the Democrats. Michigan Election Results

Pennsylvania - This state always gets attention but never really becomes a swing state. This state will be a very very close state. Pennsylvania Election Results

Republican states that will be purple.

Arizona - Arizona Election Results The county that matter is Maricopa County. There are more transplants from other states going to Phoenix and Glendale and this should make it very close. The GOP must retain this state because it going blue becuase it will have a huge role in who wins. I think if they pick a moderate they will retain but if they do not it could go blue.

Georgia - This place will be a dogfight. If Hillary runs this state will I think will carry the state because Atlanta and the suburbs are growing and it is getting a little more and a little more each election cycle closer to the Democrats. Hillary can win some southern support and I think Georgia will be a upset.

Now the traditional Swing States

Colorado - This states became more liberal over the years. Some states that went McCain in 2008 went to Obama in 2012. This state will be close I think it stays with the Democrats (note I think Colorado is more liberal than Oregon)

Iowa - This state will always be a swing state. I think Christie will bring Iowa back to the GOP Iowa Election Results

Ohio - The big one. Romney lost this state due to his stupid comments. Christie appeals to Ohio and Ohio will go to the republicans. Ohio Election Results

Virginia - The northern part of this state is having a population boom and that makes it more liberal. They will fight hard and who puts on a better campaign wins here. I say the GOP wins here to make it interesting

North Carolina - This state is also becoming more liberal. Hillary could draw from southern support and because of that it goes to the Democrats.

Florida - Another dogfight here. I think the GOP wins because Romney spit on hispanic voters and I do not think a Moderate (Christie) will do that. But hillarys southern charm should help in northern part. But Republicans take a small victory.


I say this will be a tie and be a supreme court mess (Maine will have spilt electorate.

HAVE FUN WITH YOUR PREDICTIONS

[crbcrbrgv]

I guess you didn't learn from 2012.

Demographics favor an even bigger victory for the next Democratic candidate.

They most certainly ensure victory.

I know, I know, it's way too late to predict such things. I was a fool to predict Obama was going to win in 2009 using the same theory.

I'm still wiping the egg off my face.

[dsjj251]

That list makes no sense.

President Obama got 54% of the Vote in Oregon, john Kerry only got 51%, Al gore got 46%. the state has actually trended more democratic.

your argument was to compare 2012 to 2008, but 2008 had the largest turnout in actual numbers and percentage than any election in the last 50 years( since Kennedy's election). President Obama won 2 counties that Bill Clinton didnt even win in that year.

and Wasco county has like 25,000 people TOTAL, and only 11,500 voters. and he only won the county by 800 votes. Basically, you are talking about swing counties that swung for Obama in 2008, that Swung for Romney in 2012. Oregon is a solid Democratic state, just as every other place you listed under "Democrats states that will be purple"

[blackf150]

I heard about Texas could becoming purple state by 2016.

[miamihurricane555]

It all depends on who the parties chose if the republicans chose rand paul for example. I would expect him to do well in traditional blue and purple states like New Hampshire,Maine,Colorado,Nevada,Minnesota,Iowa and Wisconsin. If the democrats chose someone like Hilary Clinton than I would expect her to better than most democrats would in the south winning states like Arkansas and west Virginia . each candidate appeals to different groups so u can't just say a state is going one way or another simply based of one election because the person running maters just as much as the result

[red4ce]

Barring any further health setbacks, if Hillary runs she wins. Not saying she'll win by a lot but she will win. The historic opportunity for America to have its first female president will be too much to pass up.

[florida.bob]

I suspect Rubio exposed his phoniness this weekend... He better work on seeing if he can hang on to his Senate seat, which may not be possible when Fla turns even more blue.

[Old Gringo]

Originally Posted by blackf150

I heard about Texas could becoming purple state by 2016.

I'm in Texas and I've been hearing that same thing for years. I'll believe it when I see it. We just elected that teabagger Cruz by an overwhelming majority.

Nope. Texas is as deep red as any red state.

[sxrckr]

Originally Posted by blackf150

I heard about Texas could becoming purple state by 2016.

I think you heard wrong.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by blackf150

I heard about Texas could becoming purple state by 2016.

the U.S. legislature from Texas could be purple, but not the state. Georgia is more likely.

Originally Posted by Old Gringo

I'm in Texas and I've been hearing that same thing for years. I'll believe it when I see it. We just elected that teabagger Cruz by an overwhelming majority.

Nope. Texas is as deep red as any red state.

Tex cruz won with 56% of the vote, Ann Hutchinson won with 61%. The state is turing blue, it wont be there in 2016, but it is turning. There was also less than 50% turnout.