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There will be high "anti-votes" if it's Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz.
Mick
Yes. It is always easier to get turnout against things than for them. That was clear in the off year elections of 2010 and 2014 when the tea party people turned out to vote against the Obama agenda. Trump would be much better as a negative draw than Cruz, I think. Republicans will turn out to vote against Clinton. The pubs are making the calculations right now whether they can sell Cruz as a middle of the road, harmless conservative. If they go with him, it could be hard to get lazy dem leaners to show up. Thinking of Cruz as president scares me.
It seems as though there are large numbers of voters (both democrat and republican) who dislike thier likely party candidate, as well as hate thier opposite party opponant.
One would think that this would be a recipe for a low voter turnout. If so, who does that favor and why? I have no idea, as I could see (under certain circumstances) either Hillary or Trump winning the election.
Depends on who the candidates are. If Trump is the GOP nominee, a record number of Democrats will turn out to vote against him. If it ends up being something odd like Kasich, Rubio, Ryan etc...vs Hillary, I would guess a fairly low turnout.
If only one of them runs as an Independent, then the other side wins,
BUT if both of them run, there's a decent chance one of the two Independents could actually win.
Sadly, no one would get the needed 270 EVs and the house would pick the President and the Senate the VP, the chances are non existent that any independent would be picked.
Republicans/Conservatives are well Conditioned to VOTE a Litmus Test based on "True Conservative" Pundits.
IF their Dream Perfect TRUE Conservative (Ted Cruz) - is not the candidate, they will stay home (just as they did in 2008 & 2012).
The main BASE for Democrats is the "victim" class - Blacks & the poor Survivors of the "War on Women".
IF the Anointed HISTORIC First Woman (Hillary Clinton) is not the candidate -- they will stay home.
The "FED-UP" and want Real Change Crowd (Sanders & Trump), will stay home if their candidate is not chosen by the Party - the one thing we are all learning with this election is that the VOTERS don't count. The "Party" Counts and the way they choose to "count" could possibly throw out the Citizen vote. They are just fine with that. Has anyone noticed that the "election battle" is not between Left & Right/Democrat and Republican - the battle is between the Political Elite (mainly those in office + Media) and the VOTERS who are Fed-Up enough to turn to a non-Politician Business Mogul and a Socialist.
Who benefits most?
1) Hillary Clinton, just exactly the way that Obama did.
2) The Corporate Media - they get the Candidate they want and the Bonus of a Bloody battle to destroy the GOP
3) The Political Elite (Establishment types, including Party officials, Lobbyists, Lawyers & those currently in Office).
4) FOLLOW THE MONEY! ........ Election records are showing who is financing (buying) this "election".
The last thing in the World any of them want is for some "real change" to hit town. It would be kicking sand in their private, spendy Sandbox.
I agree that the "establishment" wins. However, Obama had very good turnouts, which assured his victory. Would Hillary or Trump be the beneficiary of a low voter turnout? I really have no idea, but if someone had specific reasons, it would be interesting to hear.
Depends on who the candidates are. If Trump is the GOP nominee, a record number of Democrats will turn out to vote against him. If it ends up being something odd like Kasich, Rubio, Ryan etc...vs Hillary, I would guess a fairly low turnout.
Could be. One would argue the opposite that many republicans (and democrats) would either vote against Hillary (as she has high negatives as well, even in her party) or not vote at all.
Both Trump and Hillary have large cohorts who do not like them and trying to parse out "who is hated more" prior to each gaining the nomination is very difficult. Until one or both are nominated, the polls gauging sentiment are somewhat meaningless.
Most of the polls about 1-2 months prior to the 2012 election were pretty accurate. Karl Rove, of course, flopped.
Sanders has said multiple times that he wouldn't run independent if he does not get the DNC nomination. I believe him, because . . . . he's Bernie.
Mr. Trump . . . . well, he has disavowed his pledge to RNC.
Ultimately, I believe there won't be any independent run (unless it is a GOP establishment candidate running solely to take electoral votes from Mr. Trump).
Mick
v
Ted Cruz AND John Kasich have "both disavowed their pledge" also ...... but the Media never mentions that - it's all Trump, Trump, Trump. Different Standard with anything Trump.
I've never been a Trump fan, didn't vote for him in my State Primary - BUT, I've never been a fan of the Double Standard and that is what is constantly applied ONLY to Trump.
Could be. One would argue the opposite that many republicans (and democrats) would either vote against Hillary (as she has high negatives as well, even in her party) or not vote at all.
Both Trump and Hillary have large cohorts who do not like them and trying to parse out "who is hated more" prior to each gaining the nomination is very difficult. Until one or both are nominated, the polls gauging sentiment are somewhat meaningless.
Most of the polls about 1-2 months prior to the 2012 election were pretty accurate. Karl Rove, of course, flopped.
Again, depends on the candidates. The number of Democrats who would show up to vote against Hillary by voting for a Trump or a Cruz are minuscule indeed. If its someone like Kasich or Rubio who have a more crossover appeal, I could see that, but still not in huge numbers.
If my only choices are Hillary or Cruz, I will not vote.
If they take the nomination away from the highest vote getter, please take it out on every person in your party down to the town level. Some of them are delegates. Make them pay.
I agree that the "establishment" wins. However, Obama had very good turnouts, which assured his victory. Would Hillary or Trump be the beneficiary of a low voter turnout? I really have no idea, but if someone had specific reasons, it would be interesting to hear.
The 2 biggest groups to vote for Obama were the Blacks and the Kiddos/Snowflakes.
Hillary won't get the Kiddos - they want Bernie. She will get almost as many Black votes as Obama did and she will get the Progressive Left - they won't like her, but they will vote for her in a "protest" against their real enemy - anyone who is not "progressive".
While the "True Conservative" (Mark Levin approved only) crowd will stay home IF Trump is the Candidate -- Trump will bring in the "Silent Majority" FED-UP crowd, many who haven't voted in years.
Trump will also get some of the Bernie folks AND the Democrats that just can't stomach voting for the Known to be Untrustworthy Clinton.
I don't think many Trump people would vote for Cruz (especially after such a dirty election) -- I also think the Preacher Trump and his side kick Glenn Beck, will motivate a large Democratic turnout and possibly the Fiscal Conservatives that are Socially Moderate. Cruz/Beck & their Big Money people are more interested in what goes on in Bedrooms, Banks and Lawyer's Offices than they are in National Security, the Economy and getting Corruption out of our Government.
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