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Regardless of current polls, I think North Carolina is more likely than Arizona to vote for Clinton in the end. NC was considerably closer in 2012 and her campaign is already deploying resources in the state, reserving time for advertising in the months approaching the election. There is a competitive governor race in NC as well and Democrats are strongly motivated given the state's recent experiences with a Republican governor and legislature.
Trump doesn't seem to have much awareness of political dynamics if he's planning to concentrate his efforts in NJ, CA, NY and MD like a recent discussion suggests. Reducing Clinton's advantage by a few percent in those strongly blue states won't earn him a single additional electoral vote. It would make more sense for him to focus on states like OH and PA that are more competitive and have significant portions of the electorate that may be receptive to his platform. But I wouldn't bet on him winning either of those in the end.
Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania are where he should focus his time. I think even PA would be tough flip but he would be better serviced there than thinking he can flip New York.
Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania are where he should focus his time. I think even PA would be tough flip but he would be better serviced there than thinking he can flip New York.
Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania are where he should focus his time. I think even PA would be tough flip but he would be better serviced there than thinking he can flip New York.
Yes, those states would make sense for Trump's strategic focus - and get him a 277-261 Electoral College victory. Trump's personality seems to be a poor fit for the upper Midwest swing states and his rhetoric around Hispanics is a problem in the western swing states, so an eastern strategy could be the most plausible but narrow path to victory.
For what it's worth, I'm convinced West Virginia will be Trump's best state in the general election. The state is homogeneous, elderly, economically depressed, rural, and has the lowest proportion of college graduates nationwide. Ironically it was a mostly blue state less than a generation ago. Aside from DC, Clinton's best performance will probably be in Hawaii.
New Jersey and Connecticut haven't voted Republican or even been particularly competitive since 1988. Trump would have to get a lot of previous Democratic voters to flip in order to gain their electoral votes - plus the media markets in those states are very expensive and he's well behind the curve in fundraising.
New Jersey and Connecticut haven't voted Republican or even been particularly competitive since 1988. Trump would have to get a lot of previous Democratic voters to flip in order to gain their electoral votes - plus the media markets in those states are very expensive and he's well behind the curve in fundraising.
I agree long shots but if he plays his cards right, he could be competitive and even win in one of them.. NJ especially. Its going to be a lot closer in NJ than the last two elections.
I'm so glad to live on the beautiful blue west coast. Trump is so unpopular in Seattle he had to hold his rally way up on the Canadian border in a town no one hears of.
I'm glad to be here too even if the local government is a bunch of clueless Democrats.
Inslee? LOL
Can we please get some more green crosswalks and bike lanes in Seattle to address the traffic issues?
Trump could have had that rally in a lot of towns here. The state is red outside of Seattle metro.
Hillary is leading in polling averages over Trump in Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia. Trump leads over Hillary in polling averages in Georgia and North Carolina. That's what I based my created map on in my original post. I did not just make up this map out of thin air. There's measurable polling data behind each state.
It looks like a very reasonable forecast of where things might be headed. I'd love to see AZ go blue, but I would guess NC is more likely to actually fall into Hillary's column.
According to the polls Hannity has been reading Ohio has Trump by 4, Michigan,Pa, and Wisconsin are in play. He also claimed that this primary the {D} party is down 7 million votes from the last one. I just wonder what the percentage was the black vote? If Hillary with the help of Obama can not stir up the black vote and get them to the polls Trump has a good chance to win all 4 of those states.
The black vote was a big part of why Hillary prevailed over Bernie. I don't think she has to worry too much about the black vote in the general election.
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