Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Believe it or not Georgia is trending more Democrat, just like North Carolina, Florida, and South Carolina. The only thing that is slowing the flip is the large numbers of older white voters that vote heavily Republican. Over time they won't be enough to prevent the realignment though. The same as the Democrats won't be able to alter the realignment of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota either.
Nate Silver has a pretty good track record. He is worth observing. His reputation depends on it, and he is only reporting what the polls show, and clearly shows his methodology. Why not try arguing with it, and show us why it is wrong? (HINT: You better have a good UNDERSTANDING of statistics if you are going to deconstruct it; there are very few if any statisticians that argue against his methodology).
Just last week he had Trump at 56 percent. This is what people get from only cherry picking the data and not looking at it deeper. He bases his most aggressive model *polls plus* off of 3 things. Current polling, house effect, and trend lines. Right now polling is good for Clinton, the house effects benefit her, and trend lines show a move towards her and away from Trump. He has even cautioned that this is likely the high water mark for Clinton and expect the race to tighten up. And even said that even thought Trump might be at 20 percent in the models there is still a solid chance that he could win. People win with a 20 percent shot all the time.
Believe it or not Georgia is trending more Democrat, just like North Carolina, Florida, and South Carolina. The only thing that is slowing the flip is the large numbers of older white voters that vote heavily Republican. Over time they won't be enough to prevent the realignment though. The same as the Democrats won't be able to alter the realignment of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota either.
Those states have 1 thing in common, which is a large metro area which heavily influences national elections. Detroit, Milwaukee, and the twin cities of Minneapolis–Saint Paul. All vote heavily democratic and in enough numbers in a presidential year to boost Democratics to victory. Minnesota even in off years is still very heavily democratic more than Wisconsin and Michigan though.
Arizona doesn't surprise me as much, but Georgia sure does. I hope McCain makes it though, as there needs to be a strong balance in Congress against Hillary. And if Trump were to slip in, man, there needs to be a veto proof Congress. I don't see much likelihood of a Trump presidency anymore, although it scares the bejesus out of me thinking about it. Can't imagine that guy with his hands on the nuclear button. I trust Kim Jong Un more, and that is not saying much.
One of the theories is that Trumps gains with WWC voters that help him more in the rust belt don't really do so in the south. Since Republicans are already getting most of them as it is. Whereas in the rust belt the loss of college voters simply cancels out his gains. Since Obama only lost by 6 in 2008 if Clinton can steal a solid portion of college voters she then makes winning Georgia a real possibility.
Isakson vs. Barksdale 44-38. Isakson is down from his polling high of 48 in this cycle. This is very bad for Isakson, a popular incumbent senator who is below 45% and hasn't cracked 50% this cycle. Just how much is Trump hurting him?
With regards to some of these senate races, Trump WILL improve, I mean he can't poll much worse, if he just shuts up for a few weeks he'll probably gain 3-5 points.
We're looking at these senate races assuming Trump loses by 10 points, which he might, but he might lose by 3 or 4 points and that would be enough to save some senate seats and put them back above water. Democrats would still probably win the senate, but the GOP might be reduced to 48 or 49, which would put them in excellent shape still for the 2018 mid terms.
I'm not a Trump supporter, but it's hard to believe that AZ is turning blue. I do think Gary Johnson will do better this time in AZ.
Not many thought CA would turn blue, but it happened not long after the flood of illegals started to pour in, they had kids and the demographics shifted in the largest cities. AZ is going to end up the exact same way, it will be a blue state by the next election. TX by 2024. Border states are a lost cause for Republicans.
IBD/TIPP latest poll has it being a 4 point race in a 4-way. 39/35/12/5. Johnson and Stein apparently took more support from Hillary in their poll.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
