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There are now 10 polls making up the RCP 4-way average - 7 of those have it 6% or less.
IDK how RCP does its average, but lets remember that some of these are individual polls, others are tracking and they all have different sample sizes and methods(Likely vs registered voter)
For example
Rasmussen and IBD both had clinton losing or tied) just a week ago ( Rassmussen Trump +2, IBD Trump Tie)
While they may bring the average down, it is not because it is closer in more polls, but because they both would have bumped off other polls like the Associated Press one that has her up 14 in a 4 way race or Qunnipiac that has her up 9.
And again it is a change from her losing or being tied to her leading in those very same polls.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
According to our resident "experts" simply mentioning a poll that could in any way favor Trump is cherry picking. Fascist.
For example, if I mention that 9 of 11 polls making up the RCP average have it within 6% (average 3.3%) - I'm accused of cherry picking.
Based on the dates the polls were conducted(not the dates released) there hasnt been a poll with Trump in the lead since 10/13
and even then, it was an outlier, which does indeed mean you were cherry picking. I dont think there has been a single point in this election where you could sample 10 polls and have 5 come up with trump leading.
Mind you that he also doesnt have an electoral college(no toss up) lead at any point either, which is what really matters.
Let me put it this way, today is 10/27 and when I read the latest poll analysis on the Rachel Maddow blog, I sighed and shook my head. So, I'm not going to write off Trump until the election is over.
"As the race tightens a bit, those voters should realize that a Clinton victory is not a foregone conclusion, and while Trump is an underdog, it’s plausible to imagine a scenario in which he continues to close the gap in the race’s final days.
In other words, the more race “tightens,” the more it reminds the American electorate that this thing isn’t over, and the possibility of a Trump presidency remains real."
[URL="http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/latest-polls-offer-mixed-results-clinton-trump"]Latest polls offer mixed results for Clinton, Trump[/URL]
Let me put it this way, today is 10/27 and when I read the latest poll analysis on the Rachel Maddow blog, I sighed and shook my head. So, I'm not going to write off Trump until the election is over.
"As the race tightens a bit, those voters should realize that a Clinton victory is not a foregone conclusion, and while Trump is an underdog, it’s plausible to imagine a scenario in which he continues to close the gap in the race’s final days.
In other words, the more race “tightens,” the more it reminds the American electorate that this thing isn’t over, and the possibility of a Trump presidency remains real."
That's why it's important to volunteer if you live in a battleground state. If you live close enough to a battleground state, then go there and volunteer. If you can't do that, then phone bank.
Bottom line, the majority of news (particularly in early voting) favors Clinton at the moment, so for CNN to make a big stink over the Bloomberg and Fox polls is just laughable.
The race should tighten a bit down the stretch, but not nearly enough to give Donald the win. The cake is all but baked at this point.
Thr final RCP average in FL before the 2012 election was +1.5 for Romney, yet Obama carried the state. So yeah, Bloomberg has Trump +2, big whoop. Two other polls released the same day had Hillary up +3. She has the lead and the MUCH stronger ground game. It's her state to lose.
Last edited by RaymondChandlerLives; 10-27-2016 at 12:49 PM..
The race should tighten a bit down the stretch, but not nearly enough to give Donald the win. The cake is all but baked at this point.
...
Thr final RCP average in FL before the 2012 election was +1.5 for Romney, yet Obama carried the state. So yeah, Bloomberg has Trump +2, big whoop. Two other polls released the same day had Hillary up +3. She has the lead and the MUCH stronger ground game. It's her state to lose.
She could lose Florida and still win as long as Pennsylvania and Colorado stay on board.
Let me put it this way, today is 10/27 and when I read the latest poll analysis on the Rachel Maddow blog, I sighed and shook my head. So, I'm not going to write off Trump until the election is over.
"As the race tightens a bit, those voters should realize that a Clinton victory is not a foregone conclusion, and while Trump is an underdog, it’s plausible to imagine a scenario in which he continues to close the gap in the race’s final days.
In other words, the more race “tightens,” the more it reminds the American electorate that this thing isn’t over, and the possibility of a Trump presidency remains real."
Taken together, what we see is an electoral landscape in which Clinton is still favored to win the election, but her odds have slipped a bit as GOP partisans start to gravitate anew towards their party’s slate.
But this is actually the narrative being pushed by the Clinton campaign too - from what I can tell, internal polling is ok, this isn't a panic situation, but they know that poll numbers still need to be converted into actual votes and they want to make sure that people don't get complacent and not bother. And I think the goal is to really try to run up the numbers, to take away any possible claims by a sore loser Trump that the alleged rigging led to a different outcome. Not that he has proof of any voter fraud of course, but the larger the margin, the marginalized that claim becomes.
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