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Posts like this make me laugh... the Hillary liberals are trying to disenfranchise people from voting because they know that every Trump vote will ensure their defeat... if they don't think he can win, don't worry about it... why are you worrying? #Fail
THREAD LOSERS
ElliottCA: None
Calipoppy - None
Legalsea - State of Denial
Petty Pendergrass - State of Denial
BucFan - State of Denial (with a "snicker")
NJGOAT - Can't win without all battleground states (also chastised others for "ignoring any and all objective data")
burdell - state of confusion
Sugah Ray - Confederate States of Denial
Caldus "I still believe he will lose and by a wide margin electorally"
Donna501 "I see someone that is going to be real sad early evening on Nov. 8th" (did you have a mirror handy last night, Donna?)
THREAD WINNERS
MTQ3000 - all battleground states and flip 1 blue state
Bureaucat - WI, NH, or WI
jas75 - WI
BobNJ1960 - MI
Parker501 - NC NV WI OH MI FL and CO with a "?" after CO
LoveToRow - PA
Gee, looks like I was the only one to get it exactly right. Also, where are all of these people? I've only seen calipoppy post since Armageddon happened.
I didn't see this thread or else I would've been wrong as well. My guess would have been that Trump needed to win 9 states to guarantee 270: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and either Colorado or New Hampshire.
I would've said NO WAY on him winning Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Hey, at least I'm honest. I still can't believe he won those, although technically Michigan is still pending for some reason.
When Trump lost Colorado on election night I thought he was in trouble. When they called Wisconsin for Trump I felt that was THE turning point of the night and I was already calling the election for him.
Michigan's Secretary of State said all the votes are in fact in with Trump up 13,000. Some counties may be allowed to recount their ballots, but it is unlikely to flip.
All these 'wrong' threads prove is that none of us are savvy enough, smart enough, intelligent enough, or connected enough to understand where this country is, election to election. It also loves that all of us are susceptible to influence, dues to our own bias(es) and in some cases bigotry.
A healthy does of humility is in order for many, as well as cautionary tale for the others. Moi, included.
Agree with your take, in sum and your last sentence in particular. But, in a nation devoid of 'belief and faith', it is to be expected that science is elevated to the pantheon of gods, idolized. So, so sad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon
Did anyone else notice that the RCP simple average was more accurate than Nate Silver AGAIN?
Let's Review:
-RCP uses elementary math (simple average) and throws out older polls.
-Nate Silver uses complex proprietary formulas as he weights polls and makes adjustments, etc...
Results head to head:
-Nate Silver's Complex Formulas were more accurate in the 2012 General Election.
-RCP Simple Average was more accurate in the 2008 primary, 2008 General Election, 2010 midterms, 2012 primaries, 2014 midterms, 2016 primaries, and 2016 General Election.
Only a liberal could look at this and proclaim that Nate Silver is a genius and is on to something with his polls.
You realize honesty, humility that you display is not en vogue? Particularly in the wild, wild web.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TxStorm72
Don't get me wrong, Florida being called for Trump was yuge for him! Ditto with North Carolina.
Going into election day those states were very close in the polls, so I knew those states could go either way.
In the case of Wisconsin, it was never really close prior to election day, so I did not believe that Trump would be able to pull it off there. Once Colorado was called for Hillary, I felt that New Hampshire was Trump's last path to 270. Those 10 electoral votes from Wisconsin: HUGE for Trump. 20 point swing on the electoral map! I felt that Trump would then come out on top in Arizona, Georgia and Alaska.
Don't get me wrong, Florida being called for Trump was yuge for him! Ditto with North Carolina.
Going into election day those states were very close in the polls, so I knew those states could go either way.
In the case of Wisconsin, it was never really close prior to election day, so I did not believe that Trump would be able to pull it off there. Once Colorado was called for Hillary, I felt that New Hampshire was Trump's last path to 270. Those 10 electoral votes from Wisconsin: HUGE for Trump. 20 point swing on the electoral map! I felt that Trump would then come out on top in Arizona, Georgia and Alaska.
You and I were thinking almost exactly the same thing, except I knew he'd win GA, AZ, and AK from the beginning. I had my eye on Colorado as well, as I knew Trump would do better than Romney there, but still I thought Clinton should have been favored by a few points. Nevada was always going to be tough for Trump, up against Harry Reid's machine. That meant New Hampshire would not be enough to get him to 270 even with wins in IA, OH, NC, and FL. The win in Wisconsin meant that NH and NV were no longer necessary since he'd lock up AZ and AK along with the 1 in Maine. So yes, WI was huuuuge! Once FOX called Wisconsin it was over. PA and MI were two sweet cherries on top.
Looking ahead to 2020, it gets much more difficult for democrats. TX could add 3 electors
Looking ahead to 2020, it gets much more difficult for democrats. TX could add 3 electors
The 2020 census results will be released over a month after the election that year, so the new electoral college allocations will first be applicable in 2024. Texas is set to gain electoral votes, but some red states (or at least ones turned red by Trump) are likely to end up losing ground.
Even states like WI can be a Trump win. However I am dubious of PA, as that is a dream of the (R's) every 4 years, and it does not pan out.
If Trump wins PA, the game is over, as that would be the canary in the coal mine.
Good call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by calipoppy
None....thank God
Nice Job!
You get a Consolation Trophy!
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