Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Aside from those among the Trump enthusiasts that think he'll win in a Ronald Reagan 1984 style landslide, what are the handful of states that you think are critical for Donald Trump to carry in order to win?
As a reminder, the George W. Bush path consisted of:
Carrying the Romney states including North Carolina to reach 205
Add Florida (29) to reach 235
Add Ohio (18) to reach 253
Add Virginia (13) to reach 266
Add Colorado (9) to break the 270 threshhold (275)
For good measure, add Nevada (6) to reach 281
Bush also carried 3 additional states one time that currently have a total of 15 electoral votes; Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4) and New Mexico (5). The current total maximum electoral state value of states carried by Dubya in either 2000 or 2004 is 298, meaning only a margin of 28 over the minimum unless new states are won over.
For a Trump victory, I wouldn't think that the first three steps of the Bush path have to hold; keep the Romney states plus Florida and Ohio to reach 253. I don't see a path without those pieces. It's at that point that the old path looks really dicey to me. Colorado and Virginia look to be really heavy lifts for Trump to me due to how those states have changed. Nevada's changes aren't favorable either, but Trump seems to be more competitive there. Take Nevada and Trump is at 259. If he can take Iowa and New Hampshire he reaches 269 and he can win it by taking the 1 delegate in Maine's 2nd District. Given the latest polls in PA and WI, those Rust Belt paths don't seem that promising.
I'm not trying to start a fight, I'm just curious what states some of you will be watching and see as critical for your side.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 08-10-2016 at 05:07 PM..
Romney states + FL, OH, PA. That's his 'best' (translation: least implausible) shot.
I think NH and NV, like you say, are more likely than PA but they won't put him over the top. The problem is that his odds in PA are very long. It's the unicorn for Republicans, the one they're going to catch every four years - but they never do. So his 'best' path to 270 is still a really unlikely one. Even FL and OH are long shots.
Trump's an incompetent buffoon. As I noted in another thread, his campaign hasn't even opened an office in Cincinnati yet. Clinton? Opened one five weeks ago. The Trump campaign is just bumbling its way from one self-inflicted disaster to another.
And just this afternoon, a Republican Congresswoman in Miami - Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-American - announced that she will not be voting for Trump. Forget PA - he can't even win OH or FL in order for PA to actually be relevant.
Anyone who doesn't see at this point that Trump is very likely to lose is just in deep, deep denial.
Romney states + FL, OH, PA. That's his 'best' (translation: least implausible) shot.
I think NH and NV, like you say, are more likely than PA but they won't put him over the top. The problem is that his odds in PA are very long. It's the unicorn for Republicans, the one they're going to catch every four years - but they never do. So his 'best' path to 270 is still a really unlikely one. Even FL and OH are long shots.
Trump's an incompetent buffoon. As I noted in another thread, his campaign hasn't even opened an office in Cincinnati yet. Clinton? Opened one five weeks ago. The Trump campaign is just bumbling its way from one self-inflicted disaster to another.
And just this afternoon, a Republican Congresswoman in Miami - Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-American - announced that she will not be voting for Trump. Forget PA - he can't even win OH or FL in order for PA to actually be relevant.
Anyone who doesn't see at this point that Trump is very likely to lose is just in deep, deep denial.
I saw where Ileana was going to write in Jeb for President; Mark Kirk is writing in Colin Powell and Chris Shays is ready for Hillary.
I think that the easiest path for any Republican (and not just for Trump) is to win the Romney states plus FL, OH, and PA. States such as VA, CO, NM, & NV have become solidly Democratic; a Republican would most likely carry those states only in the event of a landslide victory. On the other hand, the fact that PA is part of the "blue wall" isn't terribly meaningful, since that state's demographics are generally favorable to the GOP. (And I have little doubt that George W. Bush would have twice won PA--while at the same time been unable to win VA, CO, NM, & NV--if the politics & demographics of 2000 & 2004 were identical to what exists today.) As a final note, FL and OH have changed relatively little over the past 15 years (in comparison to the other states that I mentioned); because they still remain the quintessential swing states, a Republican candidate would be wise to heavily invest in these two states.
NH, NV, IA,FL, and hold all of NE delegates along with NC, which puts it at 269 and the House decides. Of course if Clinton won the popular vote by a decent margin that might politically be risky. It also requires that everything go his way as well. So far polling has her with the edge in FL, OH, and NH though. Fl is likely his toughest state out of all of them considering his issues with minorities.
Dead voter fraud or some economic disaster are the only ways right now...
Well he is not a Democrat so........
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
