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I think that the easiest path for any Republican (and not just for Trump) is to win the Romney states plus FL, OH, and PA. States such as VA, CO, NM, & NV have become solidly Democratic; a Republican would most likely carry those states only in the event of a landslide victory. On the other hand, the fact that PA is part of the "blue wall" isn't terribly meaningful, since that state's demographics are generally favorable to the GOP. (And I have little doubt that George W. Bush would have twice won PA--while at the same time been unable to win VA, CO, NM, & NV--if the politics & demographics of 2000 & 2004 were identical to what exists today.) As a final note, FL and OH have changed relatively little over the past 15 years (in comparison to the other states that I mentioned); because they still remain the quintessential swing states, a Republican candidate would be wise to heavily invest in these two states.
I would have said PA until I saw the terrible polls for Trump just this week. That's one reason I cobbled together another path with a number of smaller states instead. I think that PA is going to have to play a big role in any R battle plan for the foreseeable future. If CO, NV and VA join NM with regularity in the D column, and with the demographics in FL and NC not too favorable long term either, there has to be a take back somewhere to compensate. PA probably remains the best bet, if a candidate can take advantage of the growing R trend in the rest of the state without getting crushed in the Phil suburbs. A Republican doesn't have to carry those bedroom counties, but he probably needs to get close to breaking even. Romney lost those counties by 9% and lost the state by 5%. The Franklin and Marshall poll had Trump losing them by 40% and those 4 populous counties account for 1 out of 5 votes in the state.
Aside from those among the Trump enthusiasts that think he'll win in a Ronald Reagan 1984 style landslide, what are the handful of states that you think are critical for Donald Trump to carry in order to win?
As a reminder, the George W. Bush path consisted of:
Carrying the Romney states including North Carolina to reach 205
Add Florida (29) to reach 235
Add Ohio (18) to reach 253
Add Virginia (13) to reach 266
Add Colorado (9) to break the 270 threshhold (275)
For good measure, add Nevada (6) to reach 281
Bush also carried 3 additional states one time that currently have a total of 15 electoral votes; Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4) and New Mexico (5). The current total maximum electoral state value of states carried by Dubya in either 2000 or 2004 is 298, meaning only a margin of 28 over the minimum unless new states are won over.
For a Trump victory, I wouldn't think that the first three steps of the Bush path have to hold; keep the Romney states plus Florida and Ohio to reach 253. I don't see a path without those pieces. It's at that point that the old path looks really dicey to me. Colorado and Virginia look to be really heavy lifts for Trump to me due to how those states have changed. Nevada's changes aren't favorable either, but Trump seems to be more competitive there. Take Nevada and Trump is at 259. If he can take Iowa and New Hampshire he reaches 269 and he can win it by taking the 1 delegate in Maine's 2nd District. Given the latest polls in PA and WI, those Rust Belt paths don't seem that promising.
I'm not trying to start a fight, I'm just curious what states some of you will be watching and see as critical for your side.
Once he focuses on talking about economy (NAFTA, NAFTA, NAFTA)-it is Southern Red Wall which IMO will hold, plus a few pickups from Pa-Michigan, NAFTA based.
I like Free Trade, but recall Michigan primary lesson in both parties-and NAFTA drove that. the putrid LFPR -particularly blue collar men, are a solid reason Free Trade will matter in 3 months, like it has not in decades.
Aside from those among the Trump enthusiasts that think he'll win in a Ronald Reagan 1984 style landslide, what are the handful of states that you think are critical for Donald Trump to carry in order to win?
As a reminder, the George W. Bush path consisted of:
Carrying the Romney states including North Carolina to reach 205
Add Florida (29) to reach 235
Add Ohio (18) to reach 253
Add Virginia (13) to reach 266
Add Colorado (9) to break the 270 threshhold (275)
For good measure, add Nevada (6) to reach 281
Bush also carried 3 additional states one time that currently have a total of 15 electoral votes; Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4) and New Mexico (5). The current total maximum electoral state value of states carried by Dubya in either 2000 or 2004 is 298, meaning only a margin of 28 over the minimum unless new states are won over.
For a Trump victory, I wouldn't think that the first three steps of the Bush path have to hold; keep the Romney states plus Florida and Ohio to reach 253. I don't see a path without those pieces. It's at that point that the old path looks really dicey to me. Colorado and Virginia look to be really heavy lifts for Trump to me due to how those states have changed. Nevada's changes aren't favorable either, but Trump seems to be more competitive there. Take Nevada and Trump is at 259. If he can take Iowa and New Hampshire he reaches 269 and he can win it by taking the 1 delegate in Maine's 2nd District. Given the latest polls in PA and WI, those Rust Belt paths don't seem that promising.
I'm not trying to start a fight, I'm just curious what states some of you will be watching and see as critical for your side.
He's got to win the Romney states, Florida is a must, Ohio is a must. Beyond that, it gets tough unless the landscape shifts in the next 89 days. I think he could win Iowa, could win NH, Michigan & Penn or long shot possibilities. Colorado, Virginia, Nevada are also long shots. I think Trump either has to show through debates he would be a much better President or have Hillary fall through more dirt that sticks to her or some other calamitous event.
we have 3 months until the election and 3 debates........you have more Clinton's emails that are coming out.....to say she has this a lock is totally clueless.
Republican voter turnout in 2016 primaries is higher than Democrats in key states:
Florida:
Republicans: 2,355,183 votes
Democrats 1,702,878 votes (down trend from 2008 by half a million votes)
Virginia:
Republicans: 1,024,913 votes
Democrats: 782,895 votes (down trend from 2008 by 203,308 votes)
Michigan:
Republicans: 1,324,621 votes
Democrats: 1,194,643 votes (can't compare since Obama and other candidates didn't participate because Michigan got punished. But its a down trend for Democrats)
Ohio:
Republicans: 2,043,043 votes
Democrats: 1,202, 163 votes (down trend from 2008 by over 1 million votes)
New Hampshire:
Republicans: 284, 120 votes
Democrats: 247,479 votes (down trend from 2008 by 40,000 votes)
Democrat voter turnout is way down from 2008. Hillary doesn't excite anybody to come out and vote for her. It shows in her rallies.
Debate's might change things he is good in front of the camera and news media won't be able to control him like they do now by cutting his video coverage to a few wild remarks he makes. She might come out looking like a fool because she has real problems with thinking fast on her feet in interviews such as this week over the email server. Trump needs to hammer home the facts on future gun control that will be coming with Clinton and Supreme court shift to the left if she is in office which will impact future gun control even if GOP holds control over the house. Can Trump take Colorado possibly being an outsider and since Romney lost there has been successful recall elections against gun banning politicians.
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