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Mark me down as "no". I am not going to use the markets to keep score. Anything can happen.
These are what I will use to keep score:
Did Trump get us jobs back? And not just a few, a lot.
Did Trump keep his promise about illegal immigration?
Did Trump do everything that he could to keep this country safe? Bearing in mind, we could already have silent homegrowns just waiting.
Under a Trump presidency, will we have better health care plans?
Under a Trump presidency, will we get rid of NAFTA and TPP?
Under a Trump presidency, will we fix the Social Security problem?
Under a Trump presidency, will the overbloat of people on welfare go back to working and paying their own way?
If he fails to do at least 3 of those, I will vote him out next election.
I predict that the following WILL happen:
* Trump will generally keep his promises about cracking down on illegal immigration.
* Trump will do everything in his power to keep the country safe. Radical Islamic Terrorism will be called Radical Islamic Terrorism.
* NAFTA and TPP will either be gone or will be renegotiated, and companies that send jobs to foreign countries will be dealt with harshly.
I think it's POSSIBLE that the following could happen:
* Social Security gets reformed.
* Welfare will be reformed again.
I'm not as optimistic on:
* Jobs coming back. I think Trump can stop the bleeding of jobs going elsewhere. I'm not sure he can get them back.
* Healthcare. Obamacare will be repealed, but I don't know if there is a much better solution to out of control costs.
The stock market is nothing more than a fickle phenomena. It can use any excuse for it to rise or fall, and it's all a matter of bringing as many suckers on board, and when there's enough suckers to drown, the big holders decide to all sell on the flimsiest of reasons.
Alan Greenspan, one-time chief Economist, was always puzzled as to the rises and falls of the stock market, always completely unpredictable.
He saw no reason for that 500+ crash in 1987, and he saw no reason for the rise in the market in the late 90's.
Fickle, fickle, fickle!
Trump Stock Market? A sucker's Market!
There's absolutely no reason for the Dow to be up over 1500!
Obviously someone disagrees with you otherwise the market would not have moved.
So who do you think is right? YOU, or the people and companies who do this for a living?
Hmm. So some people predicted the stock market would tank if Donald John Trump were elected President of the United States. Odd, I have never known stock market pundits to be wrong.
I am, of course, gratified that the market has not crashed. Of course, if it did, many would, no doubt, blame President Obama, since he is the sitting president.
Regardless, the word 'rally' seems like it would be incorrect. We have been in a 'bull market' for some six years. The market has seen a steady rise, with, of course, the usual peaks and valleys. A 'rally' indicates that it had been a 'bear' market, and that the market is 'rallying' from such.
It is akin to a football team being ahead of the opponent by a score of 50 to 7 at halftime. If the winning team then proceeds to add more points in the second half, say to 72-7, one does not speak of the winning team as having 'rallied' in the second half.
As an aside, it was back in the Nixon Administration that the Dow Jones broke the 1,000 barrier. While in college in the mid 1970s a book came out predicting that the market would reach 10,000 in the years to come (which people thought was crazy). Alas, it was not until 1987 that the market broke the 2,000 barrier, with 10,000 being reached in 1999 (not from memory: see the link):
Under Obama the market has broken five barriers (15, 16, 17, 18 and 19,000), which appears to be the most of any president. If 20,000 is broken soon, as it may well, it will be six.
Of course, one must hesitate to assign much credit to Obama, or any sitting president, concerning the stock market. I do feel like the investors felt that things were going well under Obama, hence the bull market. Of course, if Mr. Obama had started his presidency talking about a new nuclear race, of tariffs, etc., the situation may not have been as rosy.
Obviously someone disagrees with you otherwise the market would not have moved.
So who do you think is right? YOU, or the people and companies who do this for a living?
And how many of these companies went belly-up or got taken over during the crash of '08? Remember Lehman Bros.? Merrill Lynch?
And how many of these companies went belly-up or got taken over during the crash of '08? Remember Lehman Bros.? Merrill Lynch?
Fair point.
And we could be in a complete bubble right now.
But my point is also valid -- the market is up this much for a reason --- namely that traders probably see a loosening of some regulations under a Trump presidency.
Funny though that when the same was said over any major rally under Obama you same people said that the President had nothing to do with changes in the market, and that it was cyclical. This current rally began before he was elected as well, another point that some of you are ignoring.
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Do the math:
