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I've read the yield curve is one of the best predictors of a recession. So far it hasn't inverted, although long bond yields remain stubbornly low historically relative to short term yields. https://www.marketwatch.com/investin...countrycode=bx
The stock market is short-term leading indicator, in that when the evidence of a impending recession reaches a critical point, the stock market will react... and react quickly. It can take only weeks to wipe out years of gains.
I've read the yield curve is one of the best predictors of a recession. So far it hasn't inverted, although long bond yields remain stubbornly low historically relative to short term yields. https://www.marketwatch.com/investin...countrycode=bx
The stock market is short-term leading indicator, in that when the evidence of a impending recession reaches a critical point, the stock market will react... and react quickly. It can take only weeks to wipe out years of gains.
You can see signs of recession on our roads. When the truck stops have many vacant spaces; then we are in for a recession. Companies immediately stop ordering if they suspect hard times ahead. The number of trucks on our roads, in the rest areas, and in the truck stops immediately decreases; almost overnight. The only trucks on our roads are empties being juggled between terminals so they can be in position when the economy rebounds.
You can see signs of recession on our roads. When the truck stops have many vacant spaces; then we are in for a recession. Companies immediately stop ordering if they suspect hard times ahead. The number of trucks on our roads, in the rest areas, and in the truck stops immediately decreases; almost overnight. The only trucks on our roads are empties being juggled between terminals so they can be in position when the economy rebounds.
No so here in the Sunbelt. They are crying for people to come and drive trucks because there is so much business and not enough drivers. All the manufacturing plants around here in Charlotte are running 3 shifts and need the trucking.
No so here in the Sunbelt. They are crying for people to come and drive trucks because there is so much business and not enough drivers. All the manufacturing plants around here in Charlotte are running 3 shifts and need the trucking.
Out in West Texas the need for truck drivers is so great that they are offering 6 figure salaries.
I do a lot of shaking my head at the notions that we liberals want another recession just so Trump will look bad. Been there, done that, struggled with unemployment, underemployment, and almost losing my house as a result. Took me years to build back up, and while I'm a lot better off now, there's still a few areas I'm working to catch back up on. I'm probably 95% of the way there, and would prefer to be able to focus on getting all the way there, rather than go through all that again. It was hell, and I don't need it.
So I worry a lot about what Trump's doing with the trade wars, and how it's going to affect people, and how it will affect certain industries--mine included. My field isn't one of the items *directly* involved, but something that is could *indirectly* affect mine. (Just because I don't see the connection doesn't mean it's not there.)
People were clammering and warning a recession under Obama during his final years and the conditions are only getting worse under Trump, and that is without including potential trade wars.
I agree with the first half of your statement: people warning of a recession under Obama.
I don't agree with the second half: I don't see the conditions getting worse under Trump. I see a continuation of what we had with Obama.
As a Democrat, I'm not cheering on a recession. I'd rather the economy do spectacularly regardless of what goon is in office. What I don't get is why things like salary hasn't seen a nice bump given how companies have a huge windfall in taxes and how we are supposedly at "full employment." Full employment alone should lead to handsome salary growth. Couple that with the supposed "trickle down" of these tax cuts, and I'd expect that synergy to really see middle-class America earning a lot more money than they are.
People were simply grateful to have jobs under Obama after the 2007-2009 debacle. Now that the Obama recovery is possibly continuing into Trump's administration, we should want more than just "a job." We should see salary growth. We aren't there yet. If voters can put aside political rhetoric in 2020, they'll look to their wallets. Simply just being employed isn't good enough anymore.
No so here in the Sunbelt. They are crying for people to come and drive trucks because there is so much business and not enough drivers. All the manufacturing plants around here in Charlotte are running 3 shifts and need the trucking.
I did not mean that you can see signs of recession now. I meant that the disappearance of tucks/trucking is the precursor of recession. It happens almost before the markets react since it can start in one segment which then affects others. I was responding to a post that was talking about the market being a short term leading indicator.
I do a lot of shaking my head at the notions that we liberals want another recession just so Trump will look bad. Been there, done that, struggled with unemployment, underemployment, and almost losing my house as a result. Took me years to build back up, and while I'm a lot better off now, there's still a few areas I'm working to catch back up on. I'm probably 95% of the way there, and would prefer to be able to focus on getting all the way there, rather than go through all that again. It was hell, and I don't need it.
So I worry a lot about what Trump's doing with the trade wars, and how it's going to affect people, and how it will affect certain industries--mine included. My field isn't one of the items *directly* involved, but something that is could *indirectly* affect mine. (Just because I don't see the connection doesn't mean it's not there.)
a lot of us are concerned about the trade war, not just liberals, but as for hoping for a recession, it isn't a made up dream, it is pretty much apparent libs would love to do whatever it takes to stop Trump. They have very little right now, anyway to hope for other than a recession. Of course between now and 2020 that could change.
it is pretty much apparent libs would love to do whatever it takes to stop Trump.
Don't paint everyone with the same brush. Americans in general would rather see their wallets flush with cash from gainful employment and rising stock markets while dealing with the reality of having a megalomaniac in power.
However, one doesn't come with the other. Trump's economy has been simply a continuation of Obama's economy. Major indicators pretty much agree. So, if you were down on Obama's economy, be down on Trump. If you were up on Obama, be up on Trump's economy - at least in regards to not "f***ing this up too bad." That's my stance.
If he's re-elected in 2020, it shouldn't be for keeping up the status quo. It will be for other reasons that the non-plurality decided make him worthy of a second term.
I read how today the market is only up so far in 2018 mainly due to a few specific companies doing well. Amazon comes to mind.. I would think an overall economy is not in great shape when only a few companies are doing well and the rest are just holding their own or struggling. To add to this.. Many companies now do a new scheme where they are offering options for employees and others to buy their own stock and no other benefit perks. This will obviously not end well and is just a nice short term measure which will bite them in the long run..
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