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Old 08-17-2018, 09:50 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,687,712 times
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For those who don't understand math and stats, please don't display such in this thread.

These are odds. That means there is a probably that things could fall anywhere along these lines.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

Note - at the bottom of that page you can clearly see Dems have had house control during most of when "America Was Great" - unless you think that hasn't happened in the last 80 years!
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Old 08-17-2018, 09:54 AM
 
51,655 posts, read 25,850,631 times
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This interactive map shows how the various districts might vote if the swing all across the country lined up with how each of various districts voted recently.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1028388083475963904

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-s...edc29948f.html
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Old 08-17-2018, 09:56 AM
 
5,731 posts, read 2,196,360 times
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Oh Dems, have you forgot your lesson from 2016 polls? It’s going to be close, I’m sure they weren’t expecting the success the Trump administration has had and continues to have.
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Old 08-17-2018, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Somewhere out there.
10,535 posts, read 6,172,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColoradoOnMyMind View Post
Oh Dems, have you forgot your lesson from 2016 polls? It’s going to be close, I’m sure they weren’t expecting the success the Trump administration has had and continues to have.
^
These figures are not based on polls. The map gotherequickasIcould provided is based on the special election results.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:02 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,687,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColoradoOnMyMind View Post
Oh Dems, have you forgot your lesson from 2016 polls? It’s going to be close, I’m sure they weren’t expecting the success the Trump administration has had and continues to have.
Uh, the 538 polls came out within a percent or so.......

Fail.........

Again, if you don't understand the way statistics work, you shouldn't comment except to perhaps note that the odds are that way, but the (lesser) odds also include them not taking over the house.

75% is not for certain by any means. I wouldn't fly in a plane that had a 75% chance of making it to the destination. I wouldn't invest 100,000 in something that had a 75% chance of making me 150K but a 25% chance of giving me back zero.

Odds, my man...simple odds. And the odds are now. The odds will be closer to reality a week or so before.....

No surprises here...just percentages.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:28 AM
 
5,731 posts, read 2,196,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Uh, the 538 polls came out within a percent or so.......

Fail.........

Again, if you don't understand the way statistics work, you shouldn't comment except to perhaps note that the odds are that way, but the (lesser) odds also include them not taking over the house.

75% is not for certain by any means. I wouldn't fly in a plane that had a 75% chance of making it to the destination. I wouldn't invest 100,000 in something that had a 75% chance of making me 150K but a 25% chance of giving me back zero.

Odds, my man...simple odds. And the odds are now. The odds will be closer to reality a week or so before.....

No surprises here...just percentages.
Hmmmm

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:32 AM
 
639 posts, read 249,248 times
Reputation: 313
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
For those who don't understand math and stats, please don't display such in this thread.

These are odds. That means there is a probably that things could fall anywhere along these lines.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

Note - at the bottom of that page you can clearly see Dems have had house control during most of when "America Was Great" - unless you think that hasn't happened in the last 80 years!
Hillary was favored to win the election.....
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:35 AM
 
Location: In your head, rent free
14,888 posts, read 10,043,981 times
Reputation: 7693
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Uh, the 538 polls came out within a percent or so.......
No, no they didn't.
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,872 posts, read 9,554,916 times
Reputation: 15598
The Trumplings here are still busy advertising the polls before the 2016 election, but it seems to be lost on them that all the polls for the special elections and primaries this year have done a pretty good job.

But as I've said before, I've little doubt they'll be using the "Polls - phooey! Look what happened in 2016!" excuse 20 years from now if it's convenient for them to dismiss a poll.
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:37 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,872 posts, read 9,554,916 times
Reputation: 15598
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Note - at the bottom of that page you can clearly see Dems have had house control during most of when "America Was Great" - unless you think that hasn't happened in the last 80 years!
I was just thinking the same thing, like, yesterday. The heyday of American liberalism was the 30's through the 70's, which is the same era most conservatives here seem to wax nostalgic about.
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