Quote:
Originally Posted by imbobbbb
Unless Trump decides not to run in 2020 no republican of an consequence is going to challenge him....because they all know they can't win.I'm not sure Trump will win re-election but I have no doubt he will be re-nominated.
|
A lot can still happen. I think it may depend on how long this shut-down lasts. It's the longest one ever, with no real promise of an end, although I think that may - may - be beginning to change.
So far, the people who are really getting hit have been government employees, with SNAP recipients next on the list if nothing changes. The conventional wisdom seems to be that most of these people are Democrats, and that may or may not be true. Government contractors are getting hurt, too, and I have no idea how they usually vote. The thing is, over time, what affects them will eventually start to affect the economy in general. People will default on loans, people will be buying fewer groceries, and grocery stores already operate on a slim profit margin. In other words, business will be harmed. That doesn't even take into account the reaction to some other potential shut-down related crisis - a major outbreak of food-borne illness or a major air travel disaster.
If the shut-down ends tomorrow, harm will have been done, but probably not a terrible amount of irreversible harm. If it continues, that will change. Eventually it's going to touch the economy, and then I think Trump's support may begin to erode. Most of his hard-core base will likely remain faithful (although I've seen at least a couple here say they've become disillusioned), but Republicans for whom he was second, third, or last choice might start wishing for someone whose approach to negotiation is a bit less...scorched earth. I don't mean to say that they won't still blame the Democrats, too, but that does not mean he will come out of it unscathed, and he cannot win without at least some support from these "establishment" types.
This isn't necessarily a prediction that he
will be primaried, but it is my opinion that damn near anything could happen. Time, as always, will tell.