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In the event Moore is nominated, he will likely receive votes from people who didn't show up in the 2017 special election when nothing else was on the ballot. Given the president's popularity in Alabama should lead Trump to win by a huge margin, this virtually guarantees Jones will lose regardless of who is the Republican nominee. Getting enough crossover votes to win would be prohibitively difficult.
Moore running for Senate is likely to be less of a problem for Republicans in Alabama than in Colorado, Maine, Arizona, Iowa or North Carolina. The Republican incumbents in those more moderate states will be questioned about whether or not they agree with Moore's controversial statements and alleged history. Senate Republicans know it is in their best interest for Alabama primary voters to select someone with less baggage - and Trump's campaign team knows as well, regardless of what the president himself may say off the cuff at some point.
I can't deny that all of the above is a good possibility, but I believe there's also a good possibility that Trump will win Alabama and Jones will be re-elected.
Trump has already slammed Moore for running again, and the RNC announced they would not support Moore in any way. This combines with Moore's recent loss, and he could lose the primary to an opponent more easily now.
This loss could also affect Jones' chances of winning more than if Moore was to win the primary. He's been working the state hard ever since his election ever since he took the oath of office, because he fully understands how shaky the special election was, and so far it seems his voters are still pretty happy with the job he's done for them.
I'm sure that if he wins against someone else it would be as close as it was with Moore, or even closer. But Moore will split the GOP voters, no matter how far he gets, as his own voter bloc is just as solid for him as Trump's is. I think Trump will win the state again, but I also think Jones could pull of another squeaker of a win too if Roy's voters decide not to vote for anyone in the race.
If an fervently religious independent jumps in, which is a possibility, and steals some of Moore's voters, it will further split the November GOP vote.
Moore's announcement sure created more questions than answers.
Looking back after hearing of his announcement today, the first thing I could remember about him was how badly he abused his poor horse and how much ridicule, revulsion. laughter, and attention that brought him on election day. Roy Moore is certainly no Roy Rodgers when it comes to riding a horse.
People don't seem to mind someone who abuses other people as much as a person who abuses animals these days. Those videos of him on a horse might be enough for him to lose, I think, if they are re-played often enough.
I would like to think Republican primary voters will reject him this time. But who knows. Unfortunately the conservative movement is a lost cause when it comes to keeping their base fom going off the rails. (And sure some on the left are tugging the Dems that way as well).
He barely lost last time in a black swan event. It's unlikely lightning will strike twice, so if he gets the nomination he has a pretty good chance of being the next senator from Alabama
Clearly Roy cannot find a job elsewhere so his only recourse is to try again for the job he failed to get previously.
Personally I think he should settle for a job in Wal Mart.
Roy Moore is no spring chicken; isn't it time he retired and let someone else have a shot? Someone younger and without his baggage? Aren't there other jobs Moore could do that wouldn't require all the public scrutiny? Even the republicans don't want him to run.
Good lands; what a selfish man.
I hope Alabama stands up again to throw this trash out.
I wish he’d go back to Etowah County and stay there. The man is an embarrassment to our state, and hopefully Richard Shelby will speak out against him like he did the last time.
I would think Tommy Tuberville will draw a lot of votes, from at least LA.
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