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Am I the only one who thought this thread was about a fashion model’s prediction?
So the model that accurately predicted the blue wave in the house 4 months before the 2018 midterms now projects a Trump Electorial College loss 16 months before the election.
No, what he said is probably true. It doesn’t necessarily mean it is correct, but it reflects that in our lives we have as a country largely self-segregated ourselves into red and blue enclaves and that we seldom have contact with large numbers of people that disagree with us. It’s a topic that former newspaper columnist Bill Bishop explored in “The Big Sort:Why The Clustering of Like Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart”.
Quote:
In 2004, journalist Bill Bishop coined the term "the big sort." Armed with startling new demographic data, he made national news in a series of articles showing how Americans have been sorting themselves into alarmingly homogeneous communities -- not by region or by state, but by city and even neighborhood. Over the past three decades, we have been choosing the neighborhood (and church and news show) compatible with our lifestyle and beliefs. The result is a country that has become so polarized, so ideologically inbred that people don't know and can't understand those who live a few miles away. How this came to be, and its dire implications for our country, is the subject of this ground-breaking work.
In The Big Sort, Bishop has taken his analysis to a new level. He begins with stories about how we live today and then draws on history, economics and our changing political landscape to create one of the most compelling big-picture accounts of America in recent memory.”
No, what he said is probably true. It doesn’t necessarily mean it is correct, but it reflects that in our lives we have as a country largely self-segregated ourselves into red and blue enclaves and that we seldom have contact with large numbers of people that disagree with us. It’s a topic that former newspaper columnist Bill Bishop explored in “The Big Sort:Why The Clustering of Like Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart”.
Yeah sorry, this idea that we "don't know and can't understand those who live a few miles from us" is BS. That may be for the people on the left, only because they'be been so successful in getting conservatives among them to hide their sociopolitical viewpoints they've practically had to go into hiding like modern-day Marranos. If conservatives dare to share their viewpoints in most settings today they face social scorn, they jeopardize longstanding friendships, and they could suffer professional repercussions.
So conservatives keep their mouths shut to get along, the left thinks their viewpoints are far more predominant than they really are, and then they wake up on November 9th 2016 absolutely stunned that Donald Trump won the election. That's because the ballot box is the one place left where they can't brow-beat conservatives into keeping their opinions to themselves.
The right perfectly understands the left because the left controls virtually all of the cultural and intellectual (I use that word advisedly) institutions, and have made significant inroads into corporate boards, marketing/ad agencies, and HR departments -- we are verily immersed in the messages and social clout of the left. Leftists on the other hand have to go out of their way to hear arguments from the right any more in-depth than glib memes posted on social media.
Time will tell of course but it's interesting nonetheless. The model that predicted the Democratic takeover of the House is predicting Trump will lose reelection in 2020. They predict he will not get Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan this time. It's just a model, one of many, but they were surprisingly accurate in November.
Something they are saying is something I've been noticing. It doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is. Most everyone I know is planning to vote for the Democratic candidate no matter who it is.
"She acknowledged the Democratic candidate has not been chosen yet, but argued it is not incredibly important who the nominee is."
Trump predicted to lose reelection in model that forecasted Democratic takeover of House
If conservatives dare to share their viewpoints in most settings today they face social scorn, they jeopardize longstanding friendships, and they could suffer professional repercussions.
Seriously? I've lost many friends because I DON'T support Trump. I guess it depends on what part of the country you live in.
Something they are saying is something I've been noticing. It doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is. Most everyone I know is planning to vote for the Democratic candidate no matter who it is.
I've never voted for a Democrat for president only R's from 1996-2004 and Libertarians in 2008, 2012, and 2016, but will vote for any of them against Trump. I'm not excited about any of the Dem candidates, but will still gladly vote for them against Trump.
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