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Old 07-03-2019, 02:58 PM
 
2,820 posts, read 2,287,063 times
Reputation: 3737

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Riley. View Post
And so it begins: I got a buck says Trump wins in a landslide. I don't believe any poll. We do recall the last election, don't we?

Actually, the national polls were pretty accurate. The said Hillary would win by 3-4%, she ended up winning by 2%. It was the state polls that were off.
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Old 07-03-2019, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Haiku
7,132 posts, read 4,769,652 times
Reputation: 10327
There are more ways Trump can lose votes than he can gain votes.
- The many investigations of his finances and corruption can find stuff that is quite damaging to Trump.
- His continued love affair with Kim from NK can easily back fire
- He can (and probably will) get us in a war with Iran when he could have just stayed in the treaty which was working. He will break his own campaign promise of no more ME wars.
- The economy is showing signs of weakening. Who knows where it will be in 16 months? A lot of this is his own doing with his pointless trade wars.
- The courts are likely going to rule against him for the house investigations and for his Wall.
- His treatment of John McCain is going to really come back to bite him in the arse. He has lost a lot of vets over that and will lose more.
- His mouth will continue to lose votes. Every time he tweets he loses more votes. He is his own worst enemy.

The only way I see Trump winning is if (a) he keeps his mouth shut, (b) the economy remains strong, (c) no more dirt surfaces on him and his family, (d) International relations don't blow up on him (and by extension, all Americans).
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Old 07-03-2019, 03:42 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,295,922 times
Reputation: 7284
Quote:
Originally Posted by uggabugga View Post
All 3 of those models are based solely on the economy. This one considered other factors but only time will tell.
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Old 07-03-2019, 04:23 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,636,151 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertdetroiter View Post
Trump should win easily. At least in my opinion.

But Trump is the kind of guy that could screw up a boiled egg.

One wonders how he beat both the Clinton & Bush political dynasties if this is true. Between them, 5 presidential wins. Yet Trump beat them.
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Old 07-03-2019, 04:25 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,636,151 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
There are more ways Trump can lose votes than he can gain votes.
- The many investigations of his finances and corruption can find stuff that is quite damaging to Trump.
- His continued love affair with Kim from NK can easily back fire
- He can (and probably will) get us in a war with Iran when he could have just stayed in the treaty which was working. He will break his own campaign promise of no more ME wars.
- The economy is showing signs of weakening. Who knows where it will be in 16 months? A lot of this is his own doing with his pointless trade wars.
- The courts are likely going to rule against him for the house investigations and for his Wall.
- His treatment of John McCain is going to really come back to bite him in the arse. He has lost a lot of vets over that and will lose more.
- His mouth will continue to lose votes. Every time he tweets he loses more votes. He is his own worst enemy.

The only way I see Trump winning is if (a) he keeps his mouth shut, (b) the economy remains strong, (c) no more dirt surfaces on him and his family, (d) International relations don't blow up on him (and by extension, all Americans).
How silly.



How in the world do you think the party which now embrces "Betsy Ross Was A Racist" is going to win?
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Old 07-03-2019, 07:00 PM
 
9,911 posts, read 7,702,289 times
Reputation: 2494
I am an unaffiliated voter

I feel for Democrats to win they have to abandon their anti-Trump rhetoric. Blend a mix of progressive and moderate idea's.
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Old 07-04-2019, 05:41 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,771 posts, read 104,772,037 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpdivola View Post
Actually, the national polls were pretty accurate. The said Hillary would win by 3-4%, she ended up winning by 2%. It was the state polls that were off.
How on earth can you say she won? WE live in a wonderful country that has a law stating our president is elected by what is called an electoral college. Our now president kicked ass in the elector college. That spells win not loss.
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Old 07-04-2019, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,771 posts, read 104,772,037 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
How silly.



How in the world do you think the party which now embrces "Betsy Ross Was A Racist" is going to win?
We were at a pre 4th party yesterday, a mixture of family and some good friends; We had a mixture from both parties, a few more Republicans and we got talking about this flag thing and BEtsy Roos. All there thought it was the craziest thing in the world, an insult to our country's history and all agreed they would never again purchase another NIKI product.
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Old 07-04-2019, 06:23 AM
 
11,523 posts, read 14,661,494 times
Reputation: 16821
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
There are more ways Trump can lose votes than he can gain votes.
- The many investigations of his finances and corruption can find stuff that is quite damaging to Trump.
- His continued love affair with Kim from NK can easily back fire
- He can (and probably will) get us in a war with Iran when he could have just stayed in the treaty which was working. He will break his own campaign promise of no more ME wars.
- The economy is showing signs of weakening. Who knows where it will be in 16 months? A lot of this is his own doing with his pointless trade wars.
- The courts are likely going to rule against him for the house investigations and for his Wall.
- His treatment of John McCain is going to really come back to bite him in the arse. He has lost a lot of vets over that and will lose more.
- His mouth will continue to lose votes. Every time he tweets he loses more votes. He is his own worst enemy.

The only way I see Trump winning is if (a) he keeps his mouth shut, (b) the economy remains strong, (c) no more dirt surfaces on him and his family, (d) International relations don't blow up on him (and by extension, all Americans).
I really agree w/ all of this. A-- won't happen, he's too pathological. B-- I think there are signs its weakening. W/ it having been strong his poll numbers should be much higher. C-- I think the dirt will continue to fly. He has a lot of baggage, his own and his families. People around him going to prison. More days that pass he looks like the Crook he is. D-- who knows? I think he's closely crossed the tipping point of losing voters and it will probably continue to happen.
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Old 07-04-2019, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Starting a walkabout
2,691 posts, read 1,668,069 times
Reputation: 3135
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertdetroiter View Post
Trump should win easily. At least in my opinion.

But Trump is the kind of guy that could screw up a boiled egg.

I agree with this post. Trump can just as easily pull a defeat out of the jaws of victory by being stupid even when the economy is very good.


But democrats are shooting themselves in the food with promises of health care to illegals and non criminalization of illegal border crossing. The people who wait for years and come here legally won't like it as will those born here. I really hope a centrist will be nominated.
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