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1) WHAT is Trump's strategy to manage COVID-19 to give him the best chance for reelection?
2) How could a second wave beginning in September or October affect the election?
It seems the most rational thing would be to get this virus under control as quickly as possible and re-open
businesses to the extent of it not causing a drastic spike in cases.
Am I asking a question with an obvious answer here?
Perhaps opening some states is an experiment to see if in a few weeks how much virus spread will occur and to relieve some pressure from the mounting protest about the lock downs.
It seems like a gamble because if new cases increase too much in states that have re-opened they will be compelled to lock them down again.
And there will have to be a certain amount of deaths to convince the public not to support lock down protesters.
Recently Trump criticized Brazil for going to an extent with a herd immunity approach but all of this is influenced on how conditions unfold.
Question 2 may also be obvious, a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall would obviously be bad for Trump.
However if a second wave were to occur in December similar to when the first wave did that would be after the election
His best strategy from a pure political standpoint (winning the election) is disband the task force and go on as if the virus will just "go away" on its own while playing down the number of deaths.
Let's say that he continues this daily task force briefing. And it goes on through October (the virus and the task force). By October, the average American is likely thinking "what has this guy done in the last 8 months to solve this problem." Whether it could be solved or not, because he kept that task force going for that long with possibly not demonstrable impact, his efforts will be seen as a failure.
In other words, if he keeps up whatever effort it appears he is doing now and we are not "back to normal" by Nov 2020, he is seen as responsible for the current situation.
Another option is: push for full reopening of the country. Disregard all warnings from medical experts and the virus models. Get us "back to normal" in the next few months. Even if 1 million Americans die from this, he'll be seen as a hero. Keep pushing the "cure is worse than the virus" idea. It isn't like there is a number set in stone for how many deaths are acceptable before it is unacceptable. 999,999 is ok. But 1,000,000? Nope, he failed. It is a gray area. He can work that to his advantage.
Trump is going to step back and "let 'er rip" in hopes that the virus magically vanishes into thin air and we see a V-shaped economic recovery, for which he will claim credit. When neither of those things come to pass, he is going to claim that the death toll is massively inflated (false) while shifting the goalposts of an "acceptable" number of deaths, with the support of Fox News and OAN he will largely ignore the virus and (successfully) tell his core supporters what is happening isn't really happening even while their family members are dying, and blame the country's economic woes on a conspiracy to undermine him by "the Dems" referring to coastal states that are taking necessary precautions when opening up.
Meanwhile, we are likely to see somewhere in the range of 150-200k deaths by August, most of which will be hitting red states that are opening up now.
Let Biden talk more and more, about complex issues, his strategies and big problems facing Americans--namely COVID-19.
Biden will crash and burn most likely. He will sound helpless.
Debate Biden.
As long as ailing Biden is the opponent, Trump--however divisive--looks like the boss, while Biden, sadly, looks lost and confused.
Trump will win no matter what if Biden is the opponent, that's the bottom line.
Trump is going to step back and "let 'er rip" in hopes that the virus magically vanishes into thin air and we see a V-shaped economic recovery, for which he will claim credit. When neither of those things come to pass, he is going to claim that the death toll is massively inflated (false) while shifting the goalposts of an "acceptable" number of deaths, with the support of Fox News and OAN he will largely ignore the virus and (successfully) tell his core supporters what is happening isn't really happening even while their family members are dying, and blame the country's economic woes on a conspiracy to undermine him by "the Dems" referring to coastal states that are taking necessary precautions when opening up.
Meanwhile, we are likely to see somewhere in the range of 150-200k deaths by August, most of which will be hitting red states that are opening up now.
So we should stay locked up forever? As you said the virus isn’t just going to disappear
Trump has to hope that we don't have flare ups from the reopenings. Many states are not following the 14 day decline. I think Arizona is largely stagnant on cases but I'm sure isn't declining. Trump has backed off the 14 day guidance and is allowing states to do their own thing. If we have surges, we will see problems. I think the economy will not be as good as the cheerleaders are thinking. We have serious issues from a lot of people not being able to get unemployment. Lots of money they make will go to backed bills and rent and food. Unless you need new pants or a shirt, I doubt these will goto the mall or stand-alone department stores.
Trump is going to step back and "let 'er rip" in hopes that the virus magically vanishes into thin air and we see a V-shaped economic recovery, for which he will claim credit.
He'll get his V-shaped recovery. Open the flood gates. People will get back to their normal routine. The economy will recover. You can quantitatively measure the health of the economy. We know what it was in February 2020. That is the measuring stick.
But, we can't truly measure the impacts of deaths. Sure, the number of deaths is a number. But we have nothing to compare it to.
If today, the Dow was back to 29k. Unemployment was at say... 4%. Home prices were steadily climbing. But, we had 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, would the recovery be a success?
What if it was 500,000 deaths? Is that a success?
1,000,000?
10,000,000?
It is tough to say.
You have 40% or so of the country that either going to look at the economy in the dumps (if there is no V recovery) and say "Trump is the man to fix it" or the economy will recover at the expense of hundreds of thousands of American lives (Millions?) and say "Trump fixed it, I didn't die."
Frankly, pushing to open the economy is Trump's best strategy. Any death total less than 330M will mean he can claim success.
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