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View Poll Results: You or anyone you know change preference from 2016 to 2020?
In 2016 I voted Clinton but in 2020 am switching to Donald Trump 13 25.00%
In 2016 I voted Donald Trump but in 2020 am switching to Biden 2 3.85%
My 2016 preference remains the same in 2020 37 71.15%
Voters: 52. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-28-2020, 11:41 AM
 
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If 2016 preferences hold, the outcome should be the same?
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Georgia
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Trump in 16, Trump in 20. I don't know anyone who is changing. I don't mingle much, pretty much stick to myself.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:07 PM
 
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#trump2016/2020
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:08 PM
 
446 posts, read 168,611 times
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Anecdotally, I don't know ANYONE who voted Trump in 2016 that will not in 2020. If anything, they're more energized.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:27 PM
 
Location: USA
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It's pretty clear who Trump was making a play for at the Convention: Suburban women and black voters.

That could mean they feel they've lost some support among those groups.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:32 PM
 
8,954 posts, read 3,001,513 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RevelateTransform View Post
Anecdotally, I don't know ANYONE who voted Trump in 2016 that will not in 2020. If anything, they're more energized.
Same here. If anything the people I know like him better.

I know of no one who has gone the other way.

Anecdotal yes, but interesting.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:34 PM
 
8,954 posts, read 3,001,513 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wordsmith12 View Post
It's pretty clear who Trump was making a play for at the Convention: Suburban women and black voters.

That could mean they feel they've lost some support among those groups.
No they feel that they have a lock on their base and are looking to expand to non-traditional republican voters.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
10,186 posts, read 14,629,025 times
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I voted Clinton in 2016. As a matter of fact, I've voted Democrat my whole life.

I am an Independent and was strongly considering Biden earlier this year, just due to Trump fatigue of texting, the drama, the seemingly divisive communication style, and the nonstop flurry of activity that was not necessarily "presidential."

I liked Biden as a VP, and he seemed harmless and reasonable. But he didn't have the weight of the world on his shoulders like a president will have.

I heard Biden's videos and interview clips about the COVID-19 response and his plans, and I was pretty surprised how completely out of it Biden was. I could not believe the Democratic party had this guy in the mix. His mind is fading, and fast.

So I gave another hard look at Trump and started researching his accomplishments and his agenda, and everything about him.

It's all pretty impressive and Trump is a man of action. He is pretty socially liberal (on most topics) and a true Republican when it comes to the economy, foreign affairs and policy. I love the fact he's so pro-America.

Add in the fact that Trump is taking on the evil world of human and child trafficking, and I see that Trump is a good person, with good intentions for America. Trump donated $35 MILLION to trafficking victims. WOW, that says everything.

He's got my vote, and I'm telling friends and family who are on the fence about Biden.
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:37 PM
 
11,985 posts, read 5,337,796 times
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Rather than start a new thread, here’s a comparison that Pew Research did between 2016 validated voters and Pew’s most recent poll of registered voters. Also attached is a link to an article by Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report on the comparison.

In many cases both Biden and Clinton are currently polling higher than Clinton and Trump did in 2016, because there is comparatively little third party voting preference this year. While Trump has gained some with black and especially Latino voters, Biden’s currently getting the larger share of the 2016 third party vote, gaining 5% over Hillary’s 48% while Trump support at 46% shows no change from 2016. What the Pew comparison doesn’t show that's crucial, is the variance in support from 2016 per key states.

Pew 2016 Validated Voters vs. 2020 Registered Voters

Total: Biden 53% (+5) Trump 45 (no change)

Men: Biden 50%(+9) Trump 48% (-4)
Women: Biden 56% (+2) Trump 42% (+3)
Age 18-29: Biden 67% (+9) Trump 30% (+2)
Age 30-49: Biden 59% (+8) Trump 39% (-1)
Age 50-64: Biden 48% (+3) 50% (NC)
Age 65+: Biden 46% (+2) Trump 52% (-1)
White: Biden 45% (+6) Trump 54% (NC)
Black: Biden 89% (-2) Trump 8% (+2)
Hispanic: Biden 63% (-3) Trump 35% (+7)
White College Grad: Biden 61% (+6) Trump 38% (NC)
White Non-College: Biden 34% (+6) Trump 64% (NC)
Republicans: Biden 5% (+1) Trump 94% (+2)
Independents: Biden 56% (+14) Trump 40% (-3)
Democrats: Biden 96% (+2) Trump 3% (-2)

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...all-about-base

Last edited by Bureaucat; 08-28-2020 at 12:47 PM..
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Old 08-28-2020, 12:41 PM
 
16,860 posts, read 8,827,915 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wordsmith12 View Post
It's pretty clear who Trump was making a play for at the Convention: Suburban women and black voters.

That could mean they feel they've lost some support among those groups.
I would interpret that as trying to insure a victory, as the (D's) losing even an extra 5-10% of the black vote would almost certainly sink them.

As to suburban women, I would think he should do better with them, because women want safety for their families, and Biden & Co represent chaos and leftist upheaval.


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