Florida - Where History is (Likely) Decided (support, Blacks, top)

[xboxmas]

Originally Posted by satellite92

D Lead is now at 138k, down almost 25k in the last 3.5 hrs.

Thats almost 7K an hour.

Where are you reading it? I want to follow along too.

[Variable]

TOTAL VOTES CAST MIAMI DADE FL as of 10/30/2020 morning
Mail ballots + Early in-person

Dem 355,234
Rep 269,005
No Party 335,441 <---Bigger turnout than Rs. Most likely young voters. Large mail vote over early in-person like Ds

[Storm King]

Clinton won Independents in CA by 13 pts in 2016, I seriously doubt Biden will win them in Florida by more than 10, but we will see.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Achtungdrive

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeNBC/st...24846567690240

Republicans gained another 50,000 today in Florida. Democrats’ lead has been cut from 430,000 to about 110,000. Republicans have 2 days to pick up 25,000 more to outperform their 2016 numbers. Unless Ds stop the slide this weekend, Biden is in a bind in Florida.

If Trump can close another 50,000 today & Sunday, that would be great to pull w/in 10,000 votes coming into election day (Indy's not included)

I think Trump will improve his 2016 performance w/ Indy's in FLA, & hopefully replicate his Republican-voter election-day dominance of Democrats.

There's no early voting in person on Monday, so Sunday Nov 1st is it for early in-person voting.

We'll have Sunday's totals and the final early vote #'s at 8:35 a.m. Monday morning.

Democrats must be getting nervous by how fast Trump's closing the early deficit gap, and about how Trump dominates on election day.

Right now, its looking like Biden's counting upon Indy's big time in Florida.

[Daywalk]

Originally Posted by Achtungdrive

Biden is toast

He's dropping like a rock in the betting odds

Biden seriously doesn’t need Florida... he has better chance of winning North Carolina and Arizona than Florida

[kell490]

474,860 Republican mail in ballots have not been returned yet that's not a good sign those ballots have to be received by election day. I wonder if those Republicans have chosen to not vote in this election.
It does show over 600k Democrats have not returned their ballots.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados...ts/PublicStats


In 2016 about half of the Republican voters 201,144 did not return their mail in ballots.
https://dos.myflorida.com/media/6973...t-2016-gen.pdf


Those ballots could show up Monday or Tuesday maybe haven't been processed yet.

[Variable]

Originally Posted by Storm King

Clinton won Independents in CA by 13 pts in 2016, I seriously doubt Biden will win them in Florida by more than 10, but we will see.

Latest Siena Florida poll released today (11/1/2020) shows Biden +10 with independents/other

Same poll shows 4% more Rs voting for Biden versus Ds voting for Trump

Below Siena poll has diff sections for AZ, FL, PA, WI:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttoo...50414/full.pdf

[Phil75230]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/u...wisconsin.html
Actually shows Biden ahead in Florida by +3 - and ahead by at least double that amount in three other key swing states Trump won in 2016 besides.

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by WrongStreet

You left out NPA voters.

No Party Affiliation = 1,621,275 = 20.7


Will be interesting to see who is winning those.

Whoever wins them likely win the election.

[JohnBoy64]

Here the twitter feed for Steve Schale, the Florida campaign manger for Obama in 08 and 12. Expert at Florida politics but is not afraid to say things people want to hear. His blog on the current state of the race in in this twitter.....sum it up....we don't know.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/stat...76446210576386