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The thing that hits you is the percentage of people thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction. The pdf from the ABC/Post below shows that early on. This is the kind of sentiment that will not help McCain who is tied to Bush. http://abcnews.go.com/images/Polling...Discontent.pdf
Also, Obama makes it back, perhaps surprisingly, among non-evangelical white Protestants; normally a Republican group, they now tilt toward the Democrat – for the first time in ABC/Post polls this cycle – by 53-44 percent.
Well maybe the Rasmuseen reports will make all of you who feel the polls come from such a "liberal source" feel better. This is the source FAUX news uses! They don't show the large 10 point lead, but a consecutive lead that isn't budging!
Here ya go Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
And that MSNBC/Washington Post will stop at nothing to elect their favorite candidate.
Polls conducted with the help of independent agencies are independent. It is really amazing that some Republicans can take real science like polls and evolution and turn them into "theories".
The Gallup organization has taken the unusual step in its Gallup Daily Tracking Poll of releasing two sets of "Likely Voters" results.
Likely Voter Estimates
Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.
The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.
The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain.
In order to not double count the Gallup Daily Tracking poll survey results in the RCP National Poll Average, and given Gallup has made a deliberate decision to release two "Likely Voters" results and has not indicated a preference as to which "Likely Voter" model they feel is most representative for the general election, RealClearPolitics will average Gallup's two "Likely Voters" results for the Gallup Daily Tracking numbers used in the RCP National Poll Average.
I bet I know why they released two models (unprecedented, btw) for their LV tracking polls. When they saw the Gallup LV down to 4 from a high of 11 with RV, they thought they better have a second one where the criteria would favor obama (new registrations and blacks). Amazing the contortions the media and the pollsters will go through to try and convince the public.
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