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2004 vote: Early Likely
Bush……………40%…………..40%
Kerry…………..45……………..40
This shows two significant problems. First, Bush beat Kerry by three points, which makes this a little less valuable as a predictive tool. Second, how did CBS determine “likely voters”? In their methodology, they show only 9% of their sample as new voters, but the combined total of Bush and Kerry voters only comes to 80%. Where did the other 11% go? Into the ether? And why would Bush voters be less likely to vote in 2008 than in 2004 (the missing 3%)?
It’s not the only problem in this poll. As it does in most polls, CBS far oversampled Democrats. The party-identification split on Democrats to Republicans has a 13-point gap, 41% to 28% respectively, among likely voters. With most people predicting a gap closer to 3-5%, CBS gives Democrats at least an extra 8% in the sample — which accounts for most of Obama’s lead, apart from the other problems in this survey.
I am voting for Mr. Obama and I sincerely hope the rest of you will as well.
Sorry, I refuse to lose my manhood and turn my back on the country I have proudly served for 22 years and vote for a man who voted to cut our funding in the middle of a war.
Sorry, I refuse to lose my manhood and turn my back on the country I have proudly served for 22 years and vote for a man who voted to cut our funding in the middle of a war.
Amen!!!!
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