[SKB]

Yes, property taxes are being addressed all right, kind of like when you tell your kids "we will see" when they ask for something.

I don't see all of the retirees buying up 350K + prices when they are usually downsizing to more modest homes for their old age.

We are a family coming from the north and I can assure you we will not be buying anything until prices are back in line with historical norms again and many many others feel that way. Why do you think homes are not selling then?

Of course prices coming down are in my best interest and the best interest of any person wanting to buy a home to LIVE IN. How selfish can anyone be that they would deny their own children, and grandchildren that opportunity based their greed.

If you think "pending sales are up" what about closed sales?? Half of the homes that go into escrow fall right back out again.

All of the fake equity of the past will be gone and we will once again return to what works for the long term for everyone, six percent appreciation with an adjustment for inflation, so you are looking at a 3% gain YOY.

You also have your own best interest involved as you are a real estate investor.

You are the first person that I have heard about that actually is happy about his insurance rate and claims it has gone down.

I will say my claim once more, prices will reduce from peak 2005 levels by 50%.
Why is that so hard to believe? I am sure if someone would have predicted the credit bubble before it happened and that prices would double in a few short years you would have said they are crazy.

Why is it so crazy to now believe that they are going to go back to where they were before?

[tallrick]

Wait till the assessments come out and people don't see a drop, but a rise in taxes. What happens if a hurricane hits Florida? Insurance will continue to rise. If people's wages haven't increased since 2001 and real estate has doubled, doesn't that tell you it's a bubble? Florida is the nation's riskiest real estate market, a drop is comming so be ready for it.

[Audacious]

Besides all that this thread was about quotes not stats, she posted the quotes she wanted to but it didn't fit to your liking so she was attacked.
The quotes she put up regarding housing were very similar to ones that I have read from posters on this site, not exagerated.



Thank you Mike,



Per SKB,
"All of the fake equity of the past will be gone and we will once again return to what works for the long term for everyone, six percent appreciation with an adjustment for inflation, so you are looking at a 3% gain YOY."

I bought my first house in 1980 for $41,500. 20year mort that is now paid off. I still have the house and recently turned down 375K. I do not have to sell it, the rent is great and the house will continue to appreciate very nicely. Kinda takes the wind out of 6% YOY. My Dad built his house in1965 for 25K. Today ther mortgage is paid and the house is worth over 700K. A good friend bough on an open (sailboat water)canal here in 1990 for 160K He is homesteaded but the house is assessed at 1.2MIL. I guess no one told them about the 6% rule.


I will say my claim once more, prices will reduce from peak 2005 levels by 50%.
Why is that so hard to believe?

Are you asking the question, believing in the question or begging for the question to be correct???

I am sure if someone would have predicted the credit bubble before it happened and that prices would double in a few short years you would have said they are crazy

And after a 30% correction from 2005 levels it is insane to think they will fall another 50%.

Good Luck

[Audacious]

I just thought of something else. After my post re the number of counties in Fl vs. the number of foreclosures, many attacked me from saying " I should "start believing" to having my head up my a#%. What I found most interesting is that NO ONE could/did challenge the analysis I posted.

As to the Jeffersonian comment I wonder if the poster knew that while formulating the Constitution Jefferson only wanted landowners to have the vote. His premise was if you worked hard enough to own a piece then you should be rewarded with the right to vote basically he believed that if you did not have a piece of it you should not be allowed to vote. Too bad he gave in.

The Jim Jones group and the wackos in Waco, they were all believers and look what happened to them, granted that one is a little far fetched but not too far so when compared to some of stuff here.

I do not drink Kool Aid, never had, nor do I buy into all the doom and gloom. Sorta reminds me of the Stock Market after 9-11. Everyone KNEW the US economy was going to tank. Don't you wish you bought back then?

It would appear that some are trying to create a self fullfilling prophesy in the futile belief that if you say something often enough it might come true. I hate pop YOUR bubble but history has PROVEN that in the long run RE goes in only one direction UP!


There are those who wish and hope then there are those who act and do.

[lostbuyer]

about your analysis of counties vs. foreclosures,what about it?thats like me dividing thousands of murders vs. 300million people in the country,it just gives a false impression of "no big deal" when the reality is another.waco has nothing to do with real estate or did I miss something?..I agree with you that r.e. only goes up with time,but double,or triple,in 2-3 years...thats crazy and unreasonable...or do you think prices will double again next year?oh and about us saying something enough that it becomes truth,I think you are confusing us with the bush administration,except we have facts backing up our claims and he doesnt....

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by Audacious

And after a 30% correction from 2005 levels it is insane to think they will fall another 50%.

Good Luck

Have you really seen prices drop 30% from 2005 levels in Sarasota (city not county)? I haven't seen anything like that kind of drop in the houses I have been looking at. Wondering, since you live in the area.

[rstate]

When people on this site are making predictions of 50% price drops, etc. please be specific as to which areas of Florida you are talking about and not just Florida. Where we live in Northeast Florida, prices WILL NOT drop 50% and prices will not spiral out of control.

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by rstate

When people on this site are making predictions of 50% price drops, etc. please be specific as to which areas of Florida you are talking about and not just Florida. Where we live in Northeast Florida, prices WILL NOT drop 50% and prices will not spiral out of control.

They cannot be specific because their position is flawed to begin with. You do bring up a very valid point. However the doom and gloom group prefer to paint with a very broad brush. What happens in Nevada or Calf MUST be true for Fl. I love this nonsense, makes it a whole lot easier to buy cheap.

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by UKOK

Have you really seen prices drop 30% from 2005 levels in Sarasota (city not county)? I haven't seen anything like that kind of drop in the houses I have been looking at. Wondering, since you live in the area.

The high end market, Long Boat and Siesta Key have increased in value over the last few years including 2006 - 2007 but not as strong as in the early 2000's Interestingly enough, Lido Key and St. Armands have seen a decrease in value. I cannot explain that one, traffic?

The SRF market in South county, eg North Port, has dropped by about 30% off of 2005 prices but at this time the prices appear to have stabilized, it is a unique situation when prices stabilize but the marketing time is in excess of 90days. A tough one to appraise. The builders are no longer "giving away" the ranch. Their backlog of spec homes is decreasing rapidly but the residual effect of their actions is still reigning back the market. There are those out there who firmly believe that they can buy/build 1800SF for under 100K! I guess the novacine will off in mid 2008.

Impact fees, site work, sewer/water "hook up" has increased the cost of new construction drastically. From what I have learned they are building by contract only, minimal if any spec building, and many of the "wannabe" builders have gone broke or moved on. Either way a good thing for the market.

SRF homes in Sarasota City are still at a bargain price. There is a tremendous amount of commercial construction going on or soon to start in the City. Approx 3.5 Billion dollars worth . That is not small change and will definitely have a major impact on the local residential market, all for the better.

The condo market is still in flux. Down here there is a lot of $$$ and they have the ability to weather the storm. Minimal if any forclosures in that market. Again there is a lot of cash in this area and most of the people who bought in 2005 can afford to wait a year or so to recoup their investment. Remember, the new tax reform plan favors NEW purchases. This should be interesting to see how it unfolds. There have been a few auctions of condos that made the local news but those were owned by the developer and at 50 cents on the dollar the builder still made a profit. The savings of scale with a large project enabled that.

To all those who believe RE is tanking and the world will end next week, puhlease do not respond to this post. I am responding to an honest question with an honest evaluation. Do not muddy the waters with emotional opinion.

If you have a particular area that you are interested in then let me know and I will do a little research for you. So you know, I AM NOT A REALTOR.

[Obrero]

Audacious; Thanks for taking the time to post this. Interesting observations. I will send you a PM later today when I have more time. Thanks again.