[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by SanyBelle

What were you mad about? That you missed the looting? Missed not having the power (and thus A/C) that was out for weeks? Missed having a working refrigerator? I'd like to know.

I went through 3 minor ones in 2004, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, when I lived in Melbourne Beach.... I don't want to experience anything stronger.

I love bad weather. Give me 70 to 80 mph winds anytime. Not like i am wanting 150mph+. Since we no longer have winters our weather is just boring year round and dry at least where i live on the gulf.

[WRnative]

<<The NOAA forecast now calls for 15-21 named storms and 7-10 hurricanes, up from the May outlook calling for 13-20 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.

The prediction for major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher—remains at 3-5.

Should the forecast pan out, activity is about to ramp up significantly from what had been a quiet period....

65%. That's the probability NOAA is giving for an above-average season, defined as more than 14 named storms. It's only putting the chances for a below-average season at 10%....

A combination of low vertical wind shear, a strong African monsoon and above average sea surface temperatures will lead to conditions favorable for storm development, according to NOAA. Forecasters did note sea surface temperatures are not as high as they were last year, though, which led to 30 named storms forming—the most in a single season since record-keeping started in 1851.>>

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola...h=44eb9a9e46f2

[beach43ofus]

NOAA is wrong a lot, claims this 2014 article:

https://globalnews.ca/news/1347409/r...ane-forecasts/

Yes, the article is old, but that doesn't change the results from the years cited....the historical data's correct.

I'd like to see the same analysis done for 2015-2020...is NOAA getting any better at this?

I give NOAA a 50-50 chance of being right, which adds nothing to our lives except we may paying a bunch of weather "scientists" a lot of cash to produce near-useless predictions.

We are 2.5 months into the 2021 Hurricane season, & we've had nothing to lose sleep over.

That doesn't mean we can't get slammed 2 weeks from now, or 6 weeks from now.

My point is that most of it is educated guessing, & fear-mongering to produce computer clicks, & ad revenue.

The historical facts indicate to me that these NOAA predictions are just more media propaganda.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

NOAA is wrong a lot, claims this 2014 article:

https://globalnews.ca/news/1347409/r...ane-forecasts/

Yes, the article is old, but that doesn't change the results from the years cited....the historical data's correct.

I'd like to see the same analysis done for 2015-2020...is NOAA getting any better at this?

I give NOAA a 50-50 chance of being right, which adds nothing to our lives except we may paying a bunch of weather "scientists" a lot of cash to produce near-useless predictions.

We are 2.5 months into the 2021 Hurricane season, & we've had nothing to lose sleep over.

That doesn't mean we can't get slammed 2 weeks from now, or 6 weeks from now.

My point is that most of it is educated guessing, & fear-mongering to produce computer clicks, & ad revenue.

The historical facts indicate to me that these NOAA predictions are just more media propaganda.

We never have something to lose sleep over 2.5 months in for the most part ever bart. Things don't heat up until the mid and later part of Aug thru Oct. My area never heats up anyways as i have never had a hit in 58 years i lived here.

[Huasho]

ANother unannounced Rain Pouring here in The Hammocks since 6 AM.

Gotta LOVE it ... Send all the Water you want Mother Nature, the Hurricanes to the Middle of the N Atlantic, where they all fizzle out.

[WrongStreet]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

NOAA is wrong a lot, claims this 2014 article:

We are 2.5 months into the 2021 Hurricane season, & we've had nothing to lose sleep over.

That doesn't mean we can't get slammed 2 weeks from now, or 6 weeks from now.

My point is that most of it is educated guessing, & fear-mongering to produce computer clicks, & ad revenue.

The historical facts indicate to me that these NOAA predictions are just more media propaganda.

I agree that NOAA gets it wrong a lot. I also would put their predictions at around a 50 to 60% chance of being correct. It's far from an exact science. One thing to note is that just because Florida doesn't get impacted doesn't mean it isn't an active season. Their prediction for last year was correct though.

No sure I get the propaganda angle though. It's not really fear mongering, it's just awareness so people can get prepared just in case. I'd rather have early warnings and have what I need in case of a storm than see the anarchy and chaos of the last minute panic-buyers.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by WrongStreet

One thing to note is that just because Florida doesn't get impacted doesn't mean it isn't an active season.

Hurricanes have existed as part of Earth's cycles for who knows how many eons.

In the past few years, what has changed is humans' ability to count them all at once all around the world.

Parabens!

One day humans may not be around to count them anymore. It won't make a difference to the hurricanes.

In the meantime, of course NOAA is very helpful with its five-day forecasts of a possible threat to one's personal geographic position.

Yes, NOAA counts them all, that's what they do. But for the average person, if it's not here, it's not there.

Having said that, personally I would not allocate more than 10% of my assets to any coastal property, especially in Florida.

All the best!

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by WrongStreet

I agree that NOAA gets it wrong a lot. I also would put their predictions at around a 50 to 60% chance of being correct. It's far from an exact science. One thing to note is that just because Florida doesn't get impacted doesn't mean it isn't an active season. Their prediction for last year was correct though.

No sure I get the propaganda angle though. It's not really fear mongering, it's just awareness so people can get prepared just in case. I'd rather have early warnings and have what I need in case of a storm than see the anarchy and chaos of the last minute panic-buyers.

If a person lives in a Hurricane prone area, & he/she don't know its Hurricane season, & he/she don't know how to prepare, & he/she needs the media to tell them all this, they are a moron.

[WrongStreet]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

If a person lives in a Hurricane prone area, & he/she don't know its Hurricane season, & he/she don't know how to prepare, & he/she needs the media to tell them all this, they are a moron.

Sure, but I think you're grossly underestimating how many morons live in this state. Hence the need to constantly warn them.

[Corrie22]

and in a month from now...when this prediction doesn't pan out.....they will come up with a new one

....They will do that a 1/2 doz times before it's over

and claim ”accuracy” at the end....just like they always do