Homes going up or Down in Price? (Lee: houses, neighborhood)

[rikoshaprl]

If someone wants to live here, and thinks prices will rise in two years, it may pay to buy now. They wouldn't be able to apply for a homestead exemption until the end of this year and the price for the 3% increase exemption won't set until the end of 2012.
(If someone recently moved here they can apply for the exemption up to March 1st.)

[equalrightsforeveryone]

From the AP.
Census: Near-record level of US counties dying

"In all, roughly 760 of the nation's 3,142 counties are fading away, stretching from industrial areas near Pittsburgh and Cleveland to the vineyards outside San Francisco to the rural areas of east Texas and the Great Plains. Once-booming housing areas, such as retirement communities in Florida, have not been immune."

Some folks claim that there are going to be more retirees in FL, Then again maybe not.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

More from the AP.
Foreclosures, cash deals lifted January home sales

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- More people bought previously occupied homes in January. But the increase was driven by rising foreclosures and all-cash purchases by investors, while the number of first-time buyers shrank.

Prices sank to their lowest levels in nearly nine years, a troubling sign for the struggling housing sector."
Prices still dropping,

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by rikoshaprl

If someone wants to live here, and thinks prices will rise in two years, it may pay to buy now. They wouldn't be able to apply for a homestead exemption until the end of this year and the price for the 3% increase exemption won't set until the end of 2012.
(If someone recently moved here they can apply for the exemption up to March 1st.)

Good point. That's why I say that if you are retired or are retiring and can get a house at a good price, why not?

As far as how this plays out, though, I'm not sure. More people are working past retirement, it's mostly investors buying up foreclosures, some banks like BofA are in a holding pattern, and economic indicators are mixed. I'd like to see local real estate sales go up for March and April, as season winds down. That would be a good sign.

[nhkev]

Well anyone who predicted homes prices would fall they can at least say they were right for the month of jan.. sales were a little down from last year (not as much as I would have expected with all the snow storms). The median was down as well. Still in the range it has been for the last two years but on the low end of the range nontheless. As I said in a previous post jan's inventory bumped up a little. It has been going down in feb so we will get the chance in about 30 days to see how much inventories impact prices.

Overall if I had to grade januarys figure I would say ..... sales b~, price d~, inventory c. Not a good report card

[firemed]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

Don't I know it. Firemed - one of the few that could see the big picture. I'll never forget you pointing out how everything could all play out, especially with banks melting down and even further implications. I could see that the whole situation was a sort of Ponzi/musical chairs game - as did you - but you were able to keep playing the tape through to its logical disastrous outcome, figuring out how things were probably going to shake out. And you were correct.

Recognize that cast of characters from that thread? I came across quite a few of your posts, today, and the usual suspects running their spin. Good times. Good times.

The market was a mess and now it has to come back to the cost of building a home to be real. some of us seen the mess building but greed is hard to stop. I remember the spin very well. The County went nuts! 1200 sqft homes selling for 300k in lehigh, Look at Cape Coral, This is a mess, so far under water its not funny. each week its a new story of how the city needs money and can't pay on its obligations. The easy fix is declaring bankruptcy! New York City was in the same mess at one time. But Cape Coral has land size but no Sea port, Rail, Jobs out side of service and health care. Mercantile jobs won't run a city of that size. All the people can't work for the City! I feel sorry for the people on fixed incomes who are under water. Well I guess I got started! LOL

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by firemed

The market was a mess and now it has to come back to the cost of building a home to be real. some of us seen the mess building but greed is hard to stop. I remember the spin very well. The County went nuts! 1200 sqft homes selling for 300k in lehigh, Look at Cape Coral, This is a mess, so far under water its not funny. each week its a new story of how the city needs money and can't pay on its obligations. The easy fix is declaring bankruptcy! New York City was in the same mess at one time. But Cape Coral has land size but no Sea port, Rail, Jobs out side of service and health care. Mercantile jobs won't run a city of that size. All the people can't work for the City! I feel sorry for the people on fixed incomes who are under water. Well I guess I got started! LOL

It was sheer greed. No one will ever convince me otherwise. I REMEMBER. People were practically dancing in the streets. Folks boasted that they could get into a house that they couldn't afford but turn it around in a month or so and make a killing. They new EXACTLY what their mortgage said. Now they all play dumb.

And the local government allowed developers wherever and whatever they wanted. Remember the builders whining about impact fees, especially down in Collier County? And the government spent like drunken sailors and has nothing to show for it. Meanwhile, no one paid any attention to elections or officials. It was get in, make the money, and get out.

Those days, I just wanted to be sick. They were ruining my beautiful swFlorida.

Make note of the "unbiased advice'" and the spin on the numbers - no matter what they are - so that it's always a good time to buy. Some things never change. It's very simple. Buy if you want to retire or can afford a second home. Move down if you have a job and it is a firm offer.

Yes, there are people that paid dearly for others greed. Some people had normal mortgages, did not overpay, have lived in the area for awhile and did not refinance over and over again, taking all their equity and blowing it. But they lost their jobs due to other's greed. The majority paid because of a few.

I have faith that things will be back to normal. I've always thought that the majority of local officials were stooges, unfortunately. The biggest problem with the area is apathy and it has always been taken advantage of. I think that very well could change. A lot of new residents seem more interested in the area and want to get involved. It's the first time I've ever seen that.

I wish you would come back and contribute firemed. I missed ya.

[rikoshaprl]

I'm thinking that the newcomers, like me, are reaping some benefit from that wild speculation. The infrastructure had lots of improvements: roads, parks, dual water system. Plus there are more shopping centers and restaurants. And property taxes, based on lower values, are low.

[kroeran]

there are definitely winners and losers in this economic gyration, once in a century opportunities side by side with a significant proportion of the population being wiped out financially, most through no fault of their own.

your point is well taken though, you have to separate out in your mind the artificial monetary measure of things from what has and is happening at the level of bricks and mortar.

prices have been cut in half in some areas, yet, the average American with at least one job in the family, is still physically living way way beyond the standard of living of most OECD citizens, let alone those of developing nations.

there is a lot of talk of trade deficits, but from where I sit, the key driver is the desire on the part of everyone outside of the US to send their savings to the US for safekeeping.

all this money inflow leads to cheap money, which is what permits blue collar workers to have 3000 sq ft houses with a three car garage, and a mall every 2 miles.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

From the AP
"New-home sales in January drop 12.6 pct"
WOW
This isn't going to help the local prices.