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Bloomquist's comments are partially true. Foreclosures are likely to be higher than what the January report shows. But lets be honest about this. If someone was predicting foreclosures in lee county were on the rise they would have been correct until October 2008. After that they have gone down rapidly on average of about 80 per month. So in October 2008 there were 2665 forecloure filings, in october of 2009 there were 1000 less (about 1600 filings) in October 2010 there were about 1000 less from there. So lets talk about before the Robo doc scandal .... the county was averaging 800-900 foreclosure filings per month during the summer of 2010.. again a huge decline from previous numbers it would stand to reason they were naturally heading in a downward trend anyways. if they kept the 80 or so per month decline they would be at 500-600 filings per month. Now we can expect that as the numbers get low it will not continue going down at 80 per month because it is never going to be zero. But the impact of the robo- doc scandal has been put at about 180 filings per month.
let's play a scenario. They were 800 per month.. they went to 400 per month. Why did they do this??? because some banks were not following proper foreclosure procedures. So why did they not just start following proper procedures? answer:because they can't. at least with not all of them. Now as i have said before ... this does not create more foreclosures it creates less. The bank if not able to foreclose will be more likely to loan mod, accept a short sale, or not have the proper paperwork to ever foreclose.
There are some that will get refiled and eventually become foreclosures, but even worse case scenario if 100% got refiled it may go back up to the 800 filings per month. Heck I'll even say that if there were1200 filings that were held off during the 4 month period that for a short time there could be an artificially inflated period to make up for them. But likely when they do come back to the courts the natural progression that has been going on with the filings will offset the refilings.
for anybody who wants to see the trend of the last 28 months watch the first video on this page
what's going to be interesting is that when it went from 800 filings to 400 almost everyone is saying "because of robo doc scandal." If and when it goes from 400 back up to 800 are you going to see people say "no problem , just the effects of the robodoc scandal" or are you going to see "lee county has 100% increase in foreclosures" and people saying "see I told ya things were getting worse". I know I am repeating myself but in a long term trend it is going to look like a sharp increase in filings from 2005 til october 2008 then a sharp decrease untill October 2010 then a break for a couple of months, resuming back to where it left off in October to a slight plateau until slowly down some more.
I haven't been on this forum as much because it has been devolving into silliness. We can all play the cut and paste game, pull numbers and articles from wherever we want. The truth is it's pretty hard to count foreclosures. I mean, yes, we can get the records online at the Lee County clerk's office and count them, but with some banks holding off on foreclosures it is pretty tough to get an accurate picture.
This back and forth, to me, is pretty useless.
All I know is what I see and hear.
I knew when there was going to be a bust. That's indisputable. I called it when the economy started to turn, too. I'm not always correct but I was then.
I understand that if there is a 12 percent unemployment rate and someone is out of work, telling them that the economy turned a long time ago is cold comfort, it even is to me as a business owner, but it did turn. It's going to be awhile before that is going to be felt by the average worker, though. That's what happens when you have a recession of epic proportions.
The truth is Lee County was hit hard by the housing collapse and it was painfully obvious that it was coming for anyone that stopped and took a look. With a service economy, an area that relies heavily on vacationers and retirees is going to take a major hit, especially when their housing "appreciation" went so high so fast.
It's going to take a long time to crawl out, and it has.
Last year was a great time to buy a very low price home. This year may be a great time to buy a moderate and high-priced home. It's tough to call a bottom. We are probably right there when it comes to homes on the lower-end of the spectrum, although surely there are some deals still out there. There may be too many people in the game, though. I don't know.
All real estate is local. Always has been and always will be. And no, sales are not down across the country. Not by a mile. And if sales are up in Lee County they are hardly alone. Either way, they have a long way to go. Yes, Rick, it is good news. I didn't say it wasn't. But I'm pointing out the mountain top. That's all.
Yes, Lee County has to deal with high unemployment and rely heavily on retirees and second-home buyers but their prices are a very, very high temptation and right now that's a very big plus for the area.
Whether sales or up or down, I don't know. I see a lot of massaging of numbers and quite frankly I don't really care. There are too many variables with the real estate credit in play at one point and foreclosures pulled at another, it is hard to call.
Is it getting better? Yes.
Will all the problems be solved tomorrow? No.
But it is not getting worse. Not now, anyway.
BofA and some other companies are holding back on foreclosures but that may not be forever. However, I think at some point the continued sales will grow and by the time BofA and others makeup their minds it may not matter as much.
Either way, I really find all of this hand wringing by investors and all of this doom and gloom by dissatisfied buyers to be a bit much. It's really going nowhere.
Buy if you feel in your gut it is a good idea don't worry about whether the price is right or not. If you want to live there until you die or want to spend your vacations in Lee County, Florida, then do it! The prices are very good. If they depreciate another $10,000 who the heck cares? If you are that concerned, rent.
Oh, and don't show up in swFlorida without a job and a family in tow.
This is a nice forum but in the long run it really doesn't sway anyone, one way or another. People buy if they feel it is right or they don't.
hiknapster has spoken. Now she's going to take an Excedrin.
You can use any term you want (wringing?). But to be fair I am not here to pump up investments but to make sure the truth is known so people who are choosing to buy or not are basing it off facts. Since a certain poster appeared they have said "foreclosures are getting worse, unemployment is getting worse,the economy is getting worse, house prices are dropping, there is zero demand. All which "can" be proven false very easily. When the lies stop I tend to go away.
You can use any term you want (wringing?). But to be fair I am not here to pump up investments but to make sure the truth is known so people who are choosing to buy or not are basing it off facts. Since a certain poster appeared they have said "foreclosures are getting worse, unemployment is getting worse,the economy is getting worse, house prices are dropping, there is zero demand. All which "can" be proven false very easily. When the lies stop I tend to go away.
I am sorry, you used the term hand wringing. when I am reading these posts on my droid some of the words are pretty small. Also the reason for about 90% of my spelling errors, those keys are just so dang small.
Even though you have a headache I am going to add to it.... There will always be something, whether it be a moratorium, a robo doc scandal, a rocket docket, a tax credit, an oil spill etc.. the numbers are what they are. I am not dealing with the national level. I am looking at specifically the foreclosures and sales in lee county, even more specifically Cape Coral. Not to feed the trolls but I do have this vision in my head of Yoko standing behind someone and feeding them what to write.
and yes I am wound up pretty tight these days, not because of this board , but the Navigator that I blew the transmission on New years day is still at the shop, $2400 dollars later still not fixed. I am suppose to drive it down to Florida next week and may end up cancelling my vacation
Hik
I admit I got caught up in the cut and paste just to show how easy it is. I hoped the other person trying to make a case for a downward spiral in Lee county prices would see how silly it is too.
As of this evening there are 3116 single family homes for sale in Cape Coral, and more foreclosures are on the way. That will only add to the downward pressure.
There seems to be a mis-conception that someone can talk the real estate up or down by what is posted here.
Anyone that believes that is just being silly, what is posted on this board is not going to effect the home values (up/down) or sales not now, not ever. Only the facts will do that
i just checked the MLS and it says there are 2382 active single family homes for sale. What is it that you are checking? I just ran a different type of search and included ones that were contigent (meaning they are under agreement) still not quite at your number but most people seperated active listings from pending listings. I at least know that when I go looking at houses the realtor or myself typically don't waste time looking at houses under agreement. and if they do fall through they go back to active. If you are using anything besides the MLS it is not accurate.
Hey Folks,, um,, I've got to put my 2 cents in,,Zillow,, IS SO OUT OF WACK,,I WILL NOT SUPPORT THEM IN ANYWAY! In NY they have my home at like 300's,,I am in the ballpark and way over the 400's,,,they are insulting and IMHO hurting the already badly bursed Housing Market. A Quick note to nhkev,,,we have a very "Unique" pc of Land in the NW,AG2,unlike the majority of "Plots" in the area, however we have other plans for that and are seeking 2 other "house properties". That 59,,sounded good,,up my alley and you know the story,,torn between Gulf and Fresh water,,really am spoiled here on Long Island with Jump in my Boat at Gilgo Beach in 15 mins,,this is hard to give up,,,but you know the story up here too,,Got some surgery going on later this month,,hoping to get up and get going asap,,and get down there! House going up as soon as I am able,,at a silly get me outta NY $$$..Its so over here! I know I have been on for years now saying I am coming,,and seriously I am no lunatic,,if you heard what the last 3 years in my life entailed,,I think I would having everyone believeing, "There is a Time& Season for Everythng" Truely I believe my time is now~ Still hunting in SWF,,lololol
zillow just put out a report in January to test the accuracy of their data and even break it down by different markets. What they did was compare their previous zestimates to sales that happened afterwards. what they published was that (in orlando, and miami) they were within 20% of the selling price 64% of the time. I personally don't think that's a great accomplishment if you took the counter and said 1/3 of the time they weren't even within 20% . So if you had a $400k home 1/3 of the time they could be off by more than $80k. if it was wrong on the upside (saying it was worth $480k) many not be a bad thing buyer thinks they're getting a great deal.
kudos for them to test their accuracy and publish honest results. They also put out a letter saying it should just be a starting point and in no way is it an appraisal.
here's a good one for you. I just checked my massachusetts house on zillow, first it says a vacant lot next to my house was what was sold and it's zestimate is $411k. But get this the house next door to me is the exact same house as mine. Zillow has it's estimated value at 1.6 million (it's only worth around 500k)
I did say hand wringing, but I got confused because I didn't specifically mean you. I meant in general. Sorry about that. I had no idea what you were talking about!
I'm the queen of best laid plans. Did I tell you we were on the news last week? We are now down to pasta, butter and milk. So I understand, I really, really do. There is always something.
But everything is not bad. People are buying in Lee County because the prices are good and the weather is nice.
And Riko, I was doing the same darn thing.
We are getting caught up in something that isn't worth our time and trouble. People can see for themselves.
And Kev, that scenario that you picture? I thought the same thing. Probably not true. Know why? Because there is always one in every crowd. One gets booted out and another one comes along.
Kev, stop by Knoxville and we will fix it, we'll fix it real good.
Seriously, any help you need, let us know. It won't be the first time the hub has fixed something over the phone!
Quote:
Originally Posted by nhkev
I am sorry, you used the term hand wringing. when I am reading these posts on my droid some of the words are pretty small. Also the reason for about 90% of my spelling errors, those keys are just so dang small.
Even though you have a headache I am going to add to it.... There will always be something, whether it be a moratorium, a robo doc scandal, a rocket docket, a tax credit, an oil spill etc.. the numbers are what they are. I am not dealing with the national level. I am looking at specifically the foreclosures and sales in lee county, even more specifically Cape Coral. Not to feed the trolls but I do have this vision in my head of Yoko standing behind someone and feeding them what to write.
and yes I am wound up pretty tight these days, not because of this board , but the Navigator that I blew the transmission on New years day is still at the shop, $2400 dollars later still not fixed. I am suppose to drive it down to Florida next week and may end up cancelling my vacation
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