Homes going up or Down in Price? (Cape Coral, Fort Myers: spring break, home builders)

[monikac21]

you might be right in the Sarasota Market, however Cape Coral/Fort Myers is very different right now. sometimes you even have to offer above asking price, just to get the property you want. Yes there are still "overpriced" homes on the market and they are sitting there since a while. But good priced homes in good locations are coming on the market and are sold within a few days. Foreclosure don't come on the market in numbers anymore, banks are holding off. They will not release foreclosures back on the market in a bulk, they will put them on the market individually. Our median price increase within the past 6 month from 90,000 to 96,000. Which would equal about 1,000/month. Our inventory is shrinking.

but not all markets are equal - and I am sure you are right for the Sarasota Market.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Here is my FAVORITE site that shows a snap shot what is really going on in Cape Coral.

Since November, Median prices are UP, the cost per square foot is UP, and the inventory is DOWN. Disclaimer: This does not address "shadow inventory". This is a very real (especially in FL). Why?? Think legal wranglings and the sheer volume of having to get things though the courts (not as big of a problem in nearly all other states). So this could be a false start or the real-deal. Remember the false start of April of 2009??

Altos Research has real-time data. In a fast moving market, who cares about the C-S data when it is already 3 months old? The graphs speak for themselves.

My source (which gets paid very well to model every RE market based off of risk management) says FL hasn't hit bottom. But then again, he thought the crash correction was going to be 10%.


See CAPE CORAL, FL Real Estate Market Report for April 17 2011





AND

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

As a side note, use that link that I posted. Type in the town of choice and see how others are doing. You will notice Panama City Beach is still falling, Tampa just started to turn the other direction, and Vegas is still dropping. You gotta feel for those guys in Vegas.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Maybe the Cape is coming back! Why?? It looks like Daytona Beach is still falling, Miami is stabilize, Venice is stabilized, Tampa is just starting to rise, Orlando is dropping, Jacksonville is dropping etc.

It seems that Sarasota and Cape Coral are coming out of it with some steam! That's some great news for your area!

[hiknapster]

That is incredible info! Thanks!


This is very simple. Prices are going up, inventory is going down.

This reminds me of when the opposite happened. You could tell people to save their lives. I don't know what it is with people but there are always that few that stand on the shore while everyone is yelling from the mountain, "Tsunami!"

Move it or lose it.

[nhkev]

Although I would welcome those median prices and expect them 13 months from now, they are not accurrate. Monika is dead on with her numbers. The trajectory of the charts would be the same (pretty much on pace for a 12% annual increase. Altos must not be counting distressed sales in their figures. And the inventory is either including condos or pending sales (but again the charts trajectory would be the same. I think the important thing is the direct correlation that when the inventory level broke it's trend line the prices surged. It's all about supply and demand.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by nhkev

Although I would welcome those median prices and expect them 13 months from now, they are not accurrate. Monika is dead on with her numbers. The trajectory of the charts would be the same (pretty much on pace for a 12% annual increase. Altos must not be counting distressed sales in their figures. And the inventory is either including condos or pending sales (but again the charts trajectory would be the same. I think the important thing is the direct correlation that when the inventory level broke it's trend line the prices surged. It's all about supply and demand.

Altos counts distress sales. And there data is spot on.

It's not just all about supply and demand (there are other variables that contribute to price). I can point to dozens of cities where supply is dropping and the price is also dropping as well.

Let's pick on Daytona Beach.

The price is dropping.

And so is the supply:


The supply can drop and the demand can also drop resulting in people dropping their prices. Notice that the Average Days on The Market is increasing while inventory is dropping. That means people are pulling heir stagnant home off because homes aren't moving. Simple!

[hiknapster]

Beyond opportunism, Arsenault says key indicators have turned positive for housing. On the demand side, initial unemployment claims have dropped below 388,000, a leading indicator of job growth, suggesting that foreclosures will decline. The rent-or-buy pendulum has swung in buy's direction because home prices have crashed while interest rates have remained low. The percentage of banks that are tightening their residential-lending standards has decreased.

On the supply side, the pair look at a 50-year trend line in the growth of housing stock, which, on average, has increased 1.1% annually. Supply started to go above trend in 1997 and went off the charts in 2006. Now, with new homebuilding stalled, the trend has reversed. "In our view, 76.7% of the 2.8 million oversupply of housing inventory has burned off," says Arsenault.

Vulture Investing - TIME

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Here is my FAVORITE site that shows a snap shot what is really going on in Cape Coral.

Since November, Median prices are UP, the cost per square foot is UP, and the inventory is DOWN. Disclaimer: This does not address "shadow inventory". This is a very real (especially in FL). Why?? Think legal wranglings and the sheer volume of having to get things though the courts (not as big of a problem in nearly all other states). So this could be a false start or the real-deal. Remember the false start of April of 2009??

Altos Research has real-time data. In a fast moving market, who cares about the C-S data when it is already 3 months old? The graphs speak for themselves.

My source (which gets paid very well to model every RE market based off of risk management) says FL hasn't hit bottom. But then again, he thought the crash correction was going to be 10%.


See CAPE CORAL, FL Real Estate Market Report for April 17 2011





AND

It is a false start the "shadow inventory" is hugh in Cape Coral, all you have to do is go through the neighborhoods, houses that are in the foreclosure process are easily identified. There are tons of them and the banks are trying to hold on to them waiting for the (manipulated) bounce, and it will come, or maybe we are in the middle of it right now, but before it's over prices will drop again.
i suggest that anyone thinking of buying right now is very careful and patient, Don't let someone talk you in to raising your offer, don't fall for the old "it's time to buy right now trick" The market is being manipulated you can gain or loose from this.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

It is a false start the "shadow inventory" is hugh in Cape Coral, all you have to do is go through the neighborhoods, houses that are in the foreclosure process are easily identified. There are tons of them and the banks are trying to hold on to them waiting for the (manipulated) bounce, and it will come, or maybe we are in the middle of it right now, but before it's over prices will drop again.
i suggest that anyone thinking of buying right now is very careful and patient, Don't let someone talk you in to raising your offer, don't fall for the old "it's time to buy right now trick" The market is being manipulated you can gain or loose from this.

While we agree that the shadow inventory is the wild card as to when the "bottom" is in, my educated guess is you are giving the banks way too much credit. Remember, Fannie and Freddie (who got stuck with most of the junk mortgages so that the banks could clear their books) are the one holding the bag. So while BofA or Wells Fargo are the ones that list the property and take care of the logistics, they don't give a rats a** how much they government looses.

So personally, I'm not buying the conspiracy theory. I think the real problem is the court system delays (ESPECIALLY in FL). Now. If you show me some concrete evidence that the delays are strategic, I'm easily persuaded.