2030 MSA Population predictions (manufacturing, train, housing)
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First of all, I'd like to kill this idea of interstate metro areas. That's just a stupid idea that can't be backed up accurately at all! Not by daytime work numbers, not by commuter traffic patterns, nothing! You live where you live. If you have multiple tax returns in different states for whatever reasons, that can't be used accurately to differentiate between primary and secondary residences. Where your head hits the pillow at night is where you live, and I'm dumbfounded by everyone's innability to understand how other heads in other states are counted by cities elsewhere. MSA's and CMSA's are P O S's., and, really, if it weren't for New York's assertion to count out of staters to boost it's own head count ( backup fantasy ), then they would be a slight distant second to a Greater L. A. area that doesn't go out of state for it's head count. As for San Diego, city or metro, it's mid-sized. My stats are accurate, but then, can any database really be? The California Dept. of Finance is more scared than biased, truly. And how come international immigration isn't taken seriously in California but if it came through Ellis Island, oohhhh..so romantic, so proud!! But, you're right, patterns change all the time. It may actually take until 2020 until New York reaches 9 million. Or, it may go back to 7.3 million. Again. Can't see L. A. settling anytime soon.
You're really not letting go of this "double counting" conspiracy theory, are you?
NEW YORK IS NOT COUNTING HEADS, THE U.S. CENSUS BUREAU IS. And they count heads once. It's not that everybody has an "innability" to understand what the conspiracy is. It's that you don't understand how the census is conducted.
Interstate metros are not difficult concepts. Watch closely.
Metros are assigned by the U.S. Census Bureau on a county-by-county basis in most of the country, regardless of what state the counties are in. Is there a tie between Hudson County, NJ and New York County, NY? Yes. Hudson is a metro county. Between Essex County NJ and NYC? Yes. Essex is a metro county. Between Westchester County NY and NYC? Yes. Westchester is a metro county. Between Nassau County NY and NYC? Yes. Nassau is a metro county. The same procedure is done in LA and other metros throughout the country. There is no conspiracy, no double-counting.
I, for example, live in New Jersey and commute to New York City. About 200,000 people join me on that commute every day. Yes, we live in New Jersey, so what? A large part of Northern and Central New Jersey is in the New York City NY NJ CT PA CMSA. We are counted as being part of the CMSA once, just once. Because so many people from this part of Jersey commute to NYC, the Census Bureau feels that there is an undeniable tie between this area and NYC, and hence our inclusion in its metro.
I don't understand what your objection to this is. Lots of people like the suburbs and commuters don't care about state boundaries very much.
Would you say that the Census Bureau needs to discount the VA and MD suburbs from its calculation of the Washington DC metro region? That would only leave the 500,000 people who live in the District. That doesn't seem right, does it?
States on the east coast are small and the masses of people who live in metro regions overlap their boundaries. If LA were positioned in the Northeast, its CMSA would cross state boundaries too. So what?
Angelenos seem to get ahead of themselves. They get overly excited about something that will more than likely never happen. NYC and Philly together right now make over 23,000,000. By the time 2030 reaches, New York CIty alone will have about 12 million, so add 4 million to 23,000,000--27,000,000. And the NYC metro is growing West, East, and North--said to rise by 2.5-3 million by 2030. So about 29.5-30 million by 2030 for NYC. And that's without including the East Coast real estate bubble burst that's getting ready to happen. Once that hits, probably around the time The Big One hits the West Coast or so, people will be flocking to NYC.
A lot of people are forgetting how divided the Census put LA's CSA. For one, the Inland Empire is one metro. Then, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks is one metro. Then Los Angeles. Together, they have close to one million. Together, they grew by 1.5 million from 2000-2006. By 2020, they will have merged in with SD, who's metro is growing. At the 3 million plus to LA's 19 million already. This doesn't count for any growth in the region. This region is growing twice as fast as NYC's CSA is.
A lot of people are forgetting how divided the Census put LA's CSA. For one, the Inland Empire is one metro. Then, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks is one metro. Then Los Angeles. Together, they have close to one million. Together, they grew by 1.5 million from 2000-2006. By 2020, they will have merged in with SD, who's metro is growing. At the 3 million plus to LA's 19 million already. This doesn't count for any growth in the region. This region is growing twice as fast as NYC's CSA is.
But still, I don't see why we use metro area population. I understand it, but who cares who lives in the suburbs. Nobody cares to visit the suburbs, people want to be in the city.
Also, the Big One is bound to hit LA one of these days. Once that hits, do you think people are going to want to move there? Hell no. Just like New Orleans. People will be out the door, and people will no want to move there.
People seem to think they're invincible, but they're in for a big surprise after moving to LA. And since many Angelenos are from New York, they'll be heading back home.
But still, I don't see why we use metro area population. I understand it, but who cares who lives in the suburbs. Nobody cares to visit the suburbs, people want to be in the city.
I actually see two counties in the Los Angeles CSA in there. Thanks!
And check this out:
US Census Press Releases (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/009865.html - broken link)
To save you trouble:
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 771,314
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 584,510
^^ In the same CSA and also one continuous urban area. They will be an MSA by 2010.
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 495,154
I actually see two counties in the Los Angeles CSA in there. Thanks!
And check this out:
US Census Press Releases (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/009865.html - broken link)
To save you trouble:
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 771,314
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 584,510
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 495,154
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. are not considered a part of LA's metro. If you want to do it that way, then New York's current metro population is over 23,000,000. And LA is not growing twice as fast as NYC according to your information. Even though I read things wrong, you made things up by saying LA's growing twice as fast.
And by 2015, NYC will join with Philly.
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