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Texas won’t have 40 million let alone 48 million by 2050. California will likely stay 10-12 million above Texas.
It’s unlikely to stay the same, the gap has shrunk 10% over the last 8 years. But unless something dramatic happens, it’s unlikely Texas will supplant California by 2050. Might be only about a 5 million person gap by then.
With declining birth rates and waning immigration this country's growth rate overall will likely begin to decelerate.
The hardest-hit states---states that will likely see population declines in the future---will be those with high populations of non-Hispanic whites (low birth-rate group) and low numbers of unskilled immigrants (high birth-rate group). States like WV, VT, ME, CT, MS, IL, and PA are already seeing either stagnant populations or just very minimal growth for these reasons. If growth in Greater NYC cools in terms of population growth, then NY can be added to that list as well as Upstate NY is very similar demographically to PA. I predict a similar future for KS, NE, SD, ND as well.
It's pretty inevitable that Texas will overtake California at some point right? Their projections estimate 47.4M by 2050.
Projecting things out 30 years in the future is impossible. Think about this: if we were using 1990 growth rates every year til now, how far off the mark would it have been given unseen events like the end of the Cold War, the real estate bust, the dot com boom/bust, 9/11, various natural disasters, etc.
Projecting things out 30 years in the future is impossible. Think about this: if we were using 1990 growth rates every year til now, how far off the mark would it have been given unseen events like the end of the Cold War, the real estate bust, the dot com boom/bust, 9/11, various natural disasters, etc.
Of course. It's just Texas seems like it could keep expanding for a lot longer where as California is already at a breaking point...
Only way I could see California relieve pressure if they strongly encourage high density/mass transit.
Of course. It's just Texas seems like it could keep expanding for a lot longer where as California is already at a breaking point...
Maybe, but 30 years is 30 years. And adding a "could" in there only makes it even more speculative. A lot can happen between now and 2050 to change the paradigm.
In 1980, the gap between California was 9 million, then increased to 13 million in 1990, then back to 12.5 million in 2000 then 12 million in 2010 and nowadays, its at 10 million. If you're thinking big picture, you have to think that far back too, instead of extrapolating today's events 30 years out.
You're very misinformed if you think the Nashville area isn't growing fast and certainly have never step foot there.
It's certainly not pitiful. Nashville is growing fast, but it's a bit overhyped relative to other metros.
In terms of absolute population growth, Nashville MSA was ranked 20th. In terms of percentage growth, it's only 9th in the sunbelt (lower than Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, and Raleigh).
The high rise construction is impressive, but the overall growth is pretty mid-tier for sunbelt metros.
It's certainly not pitiful. Nashville is growing fast, but it's a bit overhyped relative to other metros.
In terms of absolute population growth, Nashville MSA was ranked 20th. In terms of percentage growth, it's only 9th in the sunbelt (lower than Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, and Raleigh).
The high rise construction is impressive, but the overall growth is pretty mid-tier for sunbelt metros.
Nashville probably ranks higher in its rate of domestic migration than overall population increase, as the Southwest and Florida metros have higher foreign immigration. The Texas metro areas also have a demographic skewed younger than elsewhere, so they have more growth from births over deaths.
Nashville is a bit geographically separated from other fast growing major metro areas, so it does stand out in that respect. The South Central states (other than Texas, which is far away) are seeing moderate growth at most.
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