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Yeah, my lazy take is growth north of West Palm Beach has been heavily GOP retirees (think Jupiter), so that part of the county is looking more like the Treasure Coast. Maybe there has been some decline in the Black/Jewish vote too. It's a mystery for sure, as Broward/Miami-Dade have become Democratic bastions.
Well, Palm Beach County is older than the state overall and still blue, so there's that.
Palm Beach County also has a strong Black and Hispanic community. I think that the county may be a good barometer for the country in 2020. We'll be able to see if the 65+ community moves toward Biden or not. This will be especially interesting to watch since a lot of the 65+ community in Palm Beach is significantly wealthier than the average retiree. After all, the county is home to Mar a largo.
NC is consistantly increasing by about 100-125k people per year. Mostly from transplants, that lean heavily blue (NY, NJ, CT, MI, MA, even VA/MD and FL).
However, with COVID spurring out hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers from the city.... and other cities... are we expecting a BIG increase in population throughout GA NC FL SC ?
I wouldn't be surprised if FL increases over 300k again this year. NC, also would not be shocked if it increases 130k too. New Yorkers and city dwellers are moving like crazy. They have to be going somewhere? WIll they eclipse the Southern states to be more blue than we initially thought?
WHat your opinions on how city dwellers will affect NC SC GA FL?
I'll give you Florida but how do you figure Georgia and North Carolina? Are there that many transplants?
Uhhh...yeah.
Georgia, NC, Texas, and Arizona are jam packed with transplants. Its to the point where less than 50% of the major metro areas in the states were born in the state. Thats definitely the case for Phoenix and Austin. DFW, Atlanta, and Raleigh are approaching that threshold. Houston is a little different because its growth come from international immigration as opposed to domestic migration.
That is actually very accurate. The other part of the equation is geography. The Suburbs are becoming more blue each election, and the suburbs of Kansas City are in Kansas for the most part(see Overland Park/Johnson County, KS). Thus the “blueing†of KS.
Also KS has had a huge split in the GOP going on about 20 years now between the moderates and the conservatives. Moderates tend to be mainline Protestant, highly educated people while the conservatives are evangelical and in some cases conservative Catholics (think Gov. Brownback). People forget but before Gov. Brownback the state had a Dem governor, Kathleen Sebelius, who was elected to two terms. In her first term she won because a lot of Moderate GOP voters supported her over the Conservative nominee. Same thing happened in 2018.
Its not just them. If we look at the 2018 governors election, there were quite a few rural counties in KS that went blue. You had the KC area and Sedgewick County (Wichita) which were blue but also Harvey, Lyon, Crawford, and Riley counties going blue. Those are all very small. In OK, there are no rural counties that are even close to going blue.
I'll give you Florida but how do you figure Georgia and North Carolina? Are there that many transplants?
It's not simply about transplants vs. non-transplants, although that is a part of it. Georgia and NC are becoming increasingly urban and educated (at a higher rate than most other places), whether that's from native Southerners or people from all over. There's also a decently sized Black population that tends to vote Democratic. NC was blue for the 2008 election, and Georgia narrowly lost in the most recent Governor's race.
It's not simply about transplants vs. non-transplants, although that is a part of it. Georgia and NC are becoming increasingly urban and educated (at a higher rate than most other places), whether that's from native Southerners or people from all over. There's also a decently sized Black population that tends to vote Democratic. NC was blue for the 2008 election, and Georgia narrowly lost in the most recent Governor's race.
Also, regarding NC small cities and rural areas, they are much older in age and growing more slowly over the last decade compared to prior decades.
I'll give you Florida but how do you figure Georgia and North Carolina? Are there that many transplants?
Both Charlotte and The Triangle (Raleigh/Durham) have been growing for decades with Northeastern transplants; this is especially true for the Triangle where IBM started transferring New Yorkers as early as the 1960s. At this point, there are second and third generational "transplants" in Raleigh. One measure of this is that Wake County has the largest percentage of Catholics in the state. The city also now has one of the largest Catholic Cathedrals in the nation.
Both Charlotte and The Triangle (Raleigh/Durham) have been growing for decades with Northeastern transplants; this is especially true for the Triangle where IBM started transferring New Yorkers as early as the 1960s. At this point, there are second and third generational "transplants" in Raleigh. One measure of this is that Wake County has the largest percentage of Catholics in the state. The city also now has one of the largest Catholic Cathedrals in the nation.
White Catholics, particularly devout ones, vote by a pretty large margin for the GOP. Hispanic Catholics are just the opposite. Is it mostly white or Hispanic Catholics in Raleigh?
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