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Old 05-04-2021, 05:16 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
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Wonder which of TX, FL, or GA will pass the four million mark first. Interested to see how close NC is to CA.
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Old 05-05-2021, 08:24 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Wonder which of TX, FL, or GA will pass the four million mark first. Interested to see how close NC is to CA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...can_population

Based on this, It comes down to Georgia or Texas, both over 3.9 million. Texas can siphon off from all states west and the central south of LA, Ark and MS. Georgia has more neighboring states with higher black populations so that's to their advantage due to sheer numbers. At the same time, because the Carolinas and Tennessee are attractive places, some looking to relocate from farther away may chose those states rather than Georgia.
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Old 05-05-2021, 08:38 AM
 
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Originally Posted by walker1962 View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...can_population

Based on this, It comes down to Georgia or Texas, both over 3.9 million. Texas can siphon off from all states west and the central south of LA, Ark and MS. Georgia has more neighboring states with higher black populations so that's to their advantage due to sheer numbers. At the same time, because the Carolinas and Tennessee are attractive places, some looking to relocate from farther away may chose those states rather than Georgia.
Keep in mind that the estimates were off in comparison to the 2020 figures that just recently came out. So, those figures are likely off a bit as well.

FL and NY are likely in the mix in terms of alone and in combination figures.

https://blackdemographics.com/popula...opulation/amp/

Looking at the 2 lists, that would be a very big increase for GA. I get growth, but that would be a lot for 1 year.

Last edited by ckhthankgod; 05-05-2021 at 08:48 AM..
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Old 05-05-2021, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Baltimore
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Originally Posted by walker1962 View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...can_population

Based on this, It comes down to Georgia or Texas, both over 3.9 million. Texas can siphon off from all states west and the central south of LA, Ark and MS. Georgia has more neighboring states with higher black populations so that's to their advantage due to sheer numbers. At the same time, because the Carolinas and Tennessee are attractive places, some looking to relocate from farther away may chose those states rather than Georgia.
Wouldnt even all the way trust that list. It ranked MA at 9.0% when its own cited link listed it at 9.9%

Piqued my interest when I saw it below Rhode Island...Coulda have been a typo. But i'd double-check every state. And compare with Black Demographics and then theorize from there.

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/map?q...&mode=thematic

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table...SDP1Y2019.DP05

Black demographics has 4000 fewer black in GA than the Census estimate. Yet it has higher numbers for certain states by 30k+ (like MA)

According to the census Georgia had 3,996,000 black people in 2019. So itd have to be Georgia by now.

Black Dmeorpahic had 3,936,000 for TX whereas the census had 3,908,000

Either way its evident GA has more black people than TX circa 2018/2019

Last edited by BostonBornMassMade; 05-05-2021 at 10:57 AM..
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:15 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Wouldnt even all the way trust that list. It ranked MA at 9.0% when its own cited link listed it at 9.9%

Piqued my interest when I saw it below Rhode Island...Coulda have been a typo. But i'd double-check every state. And compare with Black Demographics and then theorize from there.

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/map?q...&mode=thematic

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table...SDP1Y2019.DP05

Black demographics has 4000 fewer black in GA than the Census estimate. Yet it has higher numbers for certain states by 30k+ (like MA)

According to the census Georgia had 3,996,000 black people in 2019. So itd have to be Georgia by now.

Black Dmeorpahic had 3,936,000 for TX whereas the census had 3,908,000

Either way its evident GA has more black people than TX circa 2018/2019
That is a really big jump of about 500,000 from year to year between those 2 lists. Some of this may depend on the aspect of alone or alone and in combination as well.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Baltimore
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Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
That is a really big jump of about 500,000 from year to year between those 2 lists. Some of this may depend on the aspect of alone or alone and in combination as well.
Im 90% sure they're both using "in combination" and including black Hispanics.

Maybe Black Demographics is more inconsistent in their methodology?
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Old 05-05-2021, 02:31 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Im 90% sure they're both using "in combination" and including black Hispanics.

Maybe Black Demographics is more inconsistent in their methodology?
I don’t know, as that is a really big one year jump, even when using the more inclusive numbers. Keep in mind that the Black Demographics list is a more inclusive list and GA was at just under 3.5 million in 2018. That same list showed a decrease for NY from the previous list it had.

I think this goes back to how some states tend to be underestimated and others are overestimated in this regard and in general.
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:46 PM
 
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Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
I don’t know, as that is a really big one year jump, even when using the more inclusive numbers. Keep in mind that the Black Demographics list is a more inclusive list and GA was at just under 3.5 million in 2018. That same list showed a decrease for NY from the previous list it had.

I think this goes back to how some states tend to be underestimated and others are overestimated in this regard and in general.
Obliviously I don't know GA official black pop, but Georgia's 2020 population estimates and the census state results for total population were spot on,
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:53 PM
 
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Originally Posted by chiatldal View Post
Obliviously I don't know GA official black pop, but Georgia's 2020 population estimates and the census state results for total population were spot on,
What are the figures? I thought GA was overestimated by a little bit.
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Old 05-05-2021, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
Yeah thats a good point. It will be interesting to see which groups were predominantly undercounted. I honestly doubt it will be Asians and Hispanics that were undercounted since they were shown to grow significantly in that time period. It will probably be a slower bleed of white and black that were missed.

I worked the 2010 census.



Latino's were under counted, because they didn't want to be counted!! The official number of 11 million in illegal aliens is a fiction. It is probably around 30 million.



See the Ivy League study from a few years back. It is fairly easy to estimate illegals in this country. NOBODY want a accurate number.
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