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Old 12-21-2021, 12:12 PM
 
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Weird that the states that were most overestimated in 2020 grew and the states most underestimated in 2020 shrank.
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Old 12-21-2021, 12:31 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino View Post
If you look at real income growth, however, you'll find that faster growth states are often falling behind because of inflation, especially nowadays.

I used to put a lot more stock in numbers like MHI, but unless you're accounting for things like inflation and regional price indexes (cost-of-living), they're basically meaningless.
I was more curious about if economies are noticeably changing, not necessarily if it's been beneficial. The 21.48% growth in California doesn't mean that things are more livable there, but with the info of what's actually going on there, that the gap between the haves and the have-nots is getting worse. Alabama and Kentucky's growth indicate that they're slowly getting more into the Sunbelt industry draw, bit it hasn't hit Mississippi or Louisiana. DC's growth disgusts me; it doesn't make me think it's good despite being the highest by a large margin in any way you look at it. Assuming MHI is the end all in telling about income growth is a folly, but it can be an indicator to look into things. For example, I'm curious why Oklahoma didn't grow much and why Rhode Island did notably better than the rest of the Northeast.
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Old 12-21-2021, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,193 posts, read 2,245,292 times
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Visualization of 2020-2021 state population trends (AK and HI do not fit easily on the map - both saw losses):
Attached Thumbnails
2021 State Population Estimates - minimal growth-2021-state-pop-trend.png  
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Old 12-21-2021, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
7,303 posts, read 10,657,701 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemean View Post
I was more curious about if economies are noticeably changing, not necessarily if it's been beneficial. The 21.48% growth in California doesn't mean that things are more livable there, but with the info of what's actually going on there, that the gap between the haves and the have-nots is getting worse. Alabama and Kentucky's growth indicate that they're slowly getting more into the Sunbelt industry draw, bit it hasn't hit Mississippi or Louisiana. DC's growth disgusts me; it doesn't make me think it's good despite being the highest by a large margin in any way you look at it. Assuming MHI is the end all in telling about income growth is a folly, but it can be an indicator to look into things. For example, I'm curious why Oklahoma didn't grow much and why Rhode Island did notably better than the rest of the Northeast.
That's fair, and yes I would agree that at the very least MHI changes can be telling about some underlying trends and dynamics.

In the case of a small state like Rhode Island, I think you can see some more statistical "noise" with higher margins of error.
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Old 12-21-2021, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Los Altos Hills, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke View Post
Apparently not counting all the millions of undocumente aliens who are moving into California.
Id rather have them then many of the disgruntled folks who are leaving, if we're keeping it real.
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Old 12-21-2021, 01:44 PM
 
484 posts, read 358,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino View Post
Yes, I think 5-year increments would be much better for accuracy. Of course, many would point to administrative costs for administering the Census, but you can't tell me there isn't room for much greater counting efficiencies with today's technology, especially since nearly everyone carries around a built-in tracking device these days.
Meanwhile, in other countries people are registered living in a specfic place and their ability to receives government services is dependent on keeping this accurate.

Here is Norway where I currently live. There is no need for a census or population estimates when you know exactly how many people are living where at any given time

Quote:
This is the National Registry

The registry forms the basis for the tax register, the electoral register and population statistics. An accurate national registry is essential to ensure that all citizens receive information from public authorities and that their rights and obligations are safeguarded.

Both public and private sector organisations use information from the National Registry. Access is however restricted.

N.B.! Skatteetaten.no is not a searchable database for personal or address information.

The National Registry contains information concerning the following, among other things:

births, names, paternity and parental responsibility
changes of address
changes in marital status
deaths
name changes
citizenship

Who uses information from the National Registry?

The tax authorities
The election authorities
Other public authorities such as the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), the Directorate of Immigration (UDI), the Norwegian Immigration Appeals Board (UNE), the Norwegian Armed Forces, the Norwegian State Educational Loan Fund, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, the police, fire and ambulance services
Statistics Norway (SSB)
Banks and insurance companiesEmployers
Researchers
Private organisations and individuals
I imagine both conservatives and liberals in the US would be up in arms (literally) if the federal and state goverments attempted to do something so simple
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Old 12-21-2021, 01:45 PM
 
Location: West Seattle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
Visualization of 2020-2021 state population trends (AK and HI do not fit easily on the map - both saw losses):
Wow, even Washington and Oregon barely ticked up (about how much growth Ohio and Pennsylvania get in a typical year).
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Old 12-21-2021, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTimidBlueBars View Post
Wow, even Washington and Oregon barely ticked up (about how much growth Ohio and Pennsylvania get in a typical year).
My guess is some of Idaho's rapid growth was due to migration from Washington and Oregon (in addition to California). There is a large cost of living differential vs. the West Coast states.
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Old 12-21-2021, 04:02 PM
 
Location: Jonesboro
3,875 posts, read 4,719,631 times
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Default 2021 State Population Estimates

Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
My guess is some of Idaho's rapid growth was due to migration from Washington and Oregon (in addition to California). There is a large cost of living differential vs. the West Coast states.
Generally overlooked but likely a strong contributor to that migration factor you mentioned, there are also the last 2 straight summers to take into account during which the West Coast and much of the Pacific Northwest suffered terribly from fires AND horrible air quality.
The thing I'm anticipating is when the realization hits home that inland Western states like Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Montana Colorado & Wyoming where Westcoasters are supposedly relocating to all also have their own fire (and lack of water) problems that also include markedly worsening air quality.
If you can't find good air quality outside for months in those states, "the bloom will soon fall off the rose" for them too.
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Old 12-21-2021, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,193 posts, read 2,245,292 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atler8 View Post
Generally overlooked but likely a strong contributor to that migration factor you mentioned, there are also the last 2 straight summers to take into account during which the West Coast and much of the Pacific Northwest suffered terribly from fires AND horrible air quality.
The thing I'm anticipating is when the realization hits home that inland Western states like Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Montana Colorado & Wyoming where Westcoasters are supposedly relocating to all also have their own fire (and lack of water) problems that also include markedly worsening air quality.
If you can't find good air quality outside for months in those states, "the bloom will soon fall off the rose" for them too.
Agreed with this - I was raised in southern California myself, and will gladly take the humidity of the South (which isn't overly intense in my area) over the ecological issues that the Western states have been dealing with recently.

Some of the fast growth in Idaho and Utah is also due to the high fertility of the Mormon/LDS populations. Those states are therefore likely to keep growing regardless of migration patterns.
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