2021 State Population Estimates - minimal growth

[jas75]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Georgia appears to be falling behind Texas, Florida, the Carolinas, and now Tennessee.

I got chastized recently for pointing out that population growth in Georgia is decelerating.

Georgia's growth rate was 14th in the nation which isn't too shabby. Some of the other Southern states may have a better overall profile for retirees, which in an aging country has a lot of relevance for growth patterns. South Carolina has a longer coastline than Georgia despite much smaller square mileage for instance.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Georgia appears to be falling behind Texas, Florida, the Carolinas, and now Tennessee.

I got chastized recently for pointing out that population growth in Georgia is decelerating.

That's what the last decade's estimates said before the real census numbers came out and GA ended up having higher growth than NC did so take the estimates with a grain of salt. The estimates are probably once again overestimating sunbelt growth and underestimating everywhere else.

[Harbits]

Originally Posted by jas75

Florida would need to get extremely high net in-migration to achieve a faster growth rate than Texas, due to their excess of deaths over births associated with the older age distribution. There is a diagram broken down for each state on the linked article below that illustrates this.

The main reason states lost population in 2021? People moving to other states.

I honestly wouldn't put it past Florida to be able to pull enough people down there. It's pretty incredible the unique situations that Florida has had to overcome and somehow it's always moving upwards while never missing a beat. Most places don't get these kind of things below written about them ever. And surely Texas doesn't. These kind of articles are commonplace every day down there. Florida's desirability really is growing by the minute.






12/6/21
"Florida accounts for more than 22% of all foreign real estate investments in the U.S., the strongest market in the country, according to a National Association of Realtors report that came out last month."

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/busi...kia-story.html





11/12/21
"The biggest worldwide jump over the past year in luxury housing prices was in South Florida."

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...ry-home-prices





11/22/21
"Miami is set to reign as the most prosperous high-end housing market next year, according to a 2022 forecast Monday from Knight Frank."

"The South Florida metropolis leads the estate agency and property consultant’s global cities ranking, with its luxury property prices expected to grow 10% in 2022"

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articl...ys-01637605239







11/22/21
High-End Urban Area Housing Markets

[atler8]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

That's what the last decade's estimates said before the real census numbers came out and GA ended up having higher growth than NC did so take the estimates with a grain of salt. The estimates are probably once again overestimating sunbelt growth and underestimating everywhere else.

You are exactly on target here!

In terms of the newly-released 2021 estimate, like you I do not put too much stock in population estimates of a 1 year nature much less longer term estimates.

Furthermore, there seems to have been a commonly-found misconception in existence for some time that says that North Carolina is growing faster &/or that it will (soon) pass Georgia in population.

The claim keeps popping up and has been repeatedly bandied about ever since the 2000 Census count revealed that Georgia had in the prior decade grown 5% faster than North Carolina and that it it had passed that state in population rank and thus come in at 10th place among the 50 states.
And that same claim once again continually turned up during the most recent last decade during which Georgia actually grew by 10.6% while North Carolina grew by 9.5%. It is a fact that Georgia's numerical growth then was over 1 million while North Carolina grew just over 900,000.

In fact, after the new 2020 Census count came out with the new state populations last spring, I posted on a North Carolina thread that dealt with their growth and their new state population figure whereby I made a correction to one post that said "North Carolina grew faster than Georgia". I made the corrective post there because that claim just wasn't true.

In my view, a major cause for confusion probably lies in the methodology used in awarding the 435 U.S. House seats after a new 10 year census count is released. Via the quirky nature of how the 435 seats are awarded on a population basis, a state can gain less in population than another one but yet appear to be a faster grower because it gains a House seat while the other faster grower does not. (see the 3rd link below)

As the old saying goes, the proof in the pudding is the fact that from 2010-2020, Georgia did once again indeed grow faster than North Carolina both in absolute numerical & in percentage terms.

On a related note, both states however shared in the national trend for slower growth in that their percentage & actual numerical gains were very markedly slower than what they experienced in both of the prior 2 decades.

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...us-decade.html

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...us-decade.html

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R41357.html

[pnwguy2]

I understand the Florida draw. But this real estate market is way more expensive than just 10 years ago. I should have bought 15 years ago when it was on sale. Today, no deal.

[Heel82]

10 years ago was the aftermath of the recession. It was a great time to pick up property if you could have afforded it.