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19 states and DC are estimated to have lost population since the 2020 census. There is also an increasing number of states that have an excess of deaths over births.
Top gains:
Idaho 3.4%
Utah 2.0%
Montana 1.8%
Arizona 1.7%
South Carolina 1.4%
Delaware 1.4%
Texas 1.3%
Nevada 1.3%
Florida 1.1%
North Carolina 1.1%
Declines:
Connecticut -0.0%
New Mexico -0.1%
Alaska -0.1%
Kansas -0.1%
Rhode Island -0.2%
Ohio -0.2%
Maryland -0.2%
New Jersey -0.2%
Michigan -0.3%
Pennsylvania -0.3%
Mississippi -0.4%
North Dakota -0.5%
West Virginia -0.6%
Massachusetts -0.6%
Louisiana -0.7%
California -0.8%
Hawaii -0.9%
Illinois -1.1%
New York -1.8%
District of Columbia -2.8%
I would take these estimates with a grain of salt. The estimates were WAY off for many jurisdictions vs. the reality of the 2020 census. I no longer trust annual census estimates.
I would take these estimates with a grain of salt. The estimates were WAY off for many jurisdictions vs. the reality of the 2020 census. I no longer trust annual census estimates.
The census, particularly one done in a pandemic, is not necessarily more accurate or “real”. It’s just a different way of calculating.
I would take these estimates with a grain of salt. The estimates were WAY off for many jurisdictions vs. the reality of the 2020 census. I no longer trust annual census estimates.
Generally, I would agree with your sentiment, but theoretically, these estimates should be more accurate than usual since they're going by baseline physical counts taken only last year.
The fact so many states have lost population in the last year also comes as no surprise with a dramatic rise in death rates, a significant decline in birth rates, and a complete collapse in immigration.
It will take at least a few years for those trends to normalize once the pandemic substantially subsides.
Generally, I would agree with your sentiment, but theoretically, these estimates should be more accurate than usual since they're going by baseline physical counts taken only last year.
The fact so many states have lost population in the last year also comes as no surprise with a dramatic rise in death rates, a significant decline in birth rates, and a complete collapse in immigration.
It will take at least a few years for those trends to normalize once the pandemic substantially subsides.
So if annual census estimates are fairly accurate the closer you are to the last official census and then tend to trail off in terms of reliability as the years progress, then maybe we should be like Canada and conduct an official census every five years. The 2019 estimates vs. the 2020 reality were just mind-boggling in many jurisdictions. Were the 2009 estimates likewise terrible vs. the 2010 reality?
If the general consensus among others is that these census estimates are accurate since they are only one year removed from the official 2020 census, then it stands to reason that many people who were permitted to permanently work remotely decided to flee the DC area. It would be interesting to see where these people moved to over the past year. Did those DC people mostly just move to VA or MD? Did they move to a cheaper area while keeping their DC salaries so they could improve their quality-of-life? I know when I lived in Northern Virginia I was there for work and work alone because I hated Northern Virginia. If I was still living there and was permitted to telework when COVID struck I would have been one of those fleeing the coop for a cheaper area while retaining my high DC area salary.
So if annual census estimates are fairly accurate the closer you are to the last official census and then tend to trail off in terms of reliability as the years progress, then maybe we should be like Canada and conduct an official census every five years. The 2019 estimates vs. the 2020 reality were just mind-boggling in many jurisdictions. Were the 2009 estimates likewise terrible vs. the 2010 reality?
In some ways, yes. That was the time Atlanta lost 20% of its population from the 2009 estimates to the 2010 census. The fact is the census is needed every 10-years because of redistricting. The estimates are more cost-effective and used for other (less constitutionally-necessary) reasons.
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