2022 Population Estimates (calculation, live in, moving)
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For all intents and purposes, the Northeast is basically becoming the Europe of the United States.
It will continue to get wealthier, and still has plenty of economic competitiveness and assets to attract talented and highly-educated people, but I just don't see where it can ”boom” anymore given its underlying demographics of being older and less child-bearing than the rest of the US.
I think slower growth will return after more of the COVID kinks continue to get worked out, but it's unlikely for even the Northeast Corridor to return to the more recent boom days of the 2010s.
To be fair, if you're focusing only the NYC area, you're missing a ton of Upstate hinterland.
Not trying to be alarmist, but the rural Northeast and Midwest are going to be in a for a long, slow decline in the coming years because of simple math--more deaths than births, and a decline in child-bearing.
This is going to be a drag on statewide numbers unless really robust immigration takes hold again in the US.
There's really no other way around it.
The problem with this is that metro areas such as Rochester and Albany have never had a population decline in an official census and Buffalo and Syracuse have held steady or had slight growth in recent official censuses. A small metro like Ithaca has had steady growth as well. So, it is likely a mixed bag and there has been examples of overestimation of places in NY losing people and then they end showing growth in an official census. That's why I agree with others that say to keep that in mind in terms of census estimates.
Also, if the Micron announcement for the Syracuse area even makes out of half of what it presented, there will be some population growth in parts of Upstate NY for a while to come.
Does any of this take into account the number of illegal immigrants?I know some people want them counted, others don't. But the fact is, they are here and they gotta live somewhere.
Next census is going to be interesting. I think we're going to end up counting them - or at least asking them to be counted. A lot of them will continue to hide themselves.
There's not a single source that says its gaining people- Movers, census,, school district head counts. Its definitely losing people.
CT NH VT and ME are not like Massachusetts... furthermore yo believe they're right about 4/5 other nearby states but just wrong about Massachusetts 2 years in a row? Our governor-elect and mayo have both implied theyre worried about losing out to sates like Texas North Carolina, California..
I’d say I highly doubt it’s both true CT, ME and NH are growing and Massachusetts is not. It’s entirely possible Massachusetts did hit the breaks due to Corona and people being untethered to Boston commutes. But i don’t know how for example CT would be a winner from COVID, reversing a decline while Mass was not. I kind of feel like the logic to jet off to FL or AZ from Mass, CT would have the same pressures. NH is linked to Mass in a way I struggle to see their fortunes diverging as radically as the Census says.
So I think one set of numbers is incorrect. Especially since the census underestimated
Massachusetts by about 200,000 people in 2019 and overestimated Fl, TX and AZ.
Also the estimates for MA would have an error range of +/- 350,000 (at 5%, which if you asks me, does seem a wee bit useless)so when they say the population decreased by 8,000 *the census* is saying it’s possible it grew
Last edited by btownboss4; 12-23-2022 at 09:43 AM..
I’d say I highly doubt it’s both true CT, ME and NH are growing and Massachusetts is not. It’s entirely possible Massachusetts did hit the breaks due to Corona and people being untethered to Boston commutes. But i don’t know how for example CT would be a winner from COVID, reversing a decline while Mass was not. I kind of feel like the logic to jet off to FL or AZ from Mass, CT would have the same pressures. NH is linked to Mass in a way I struggle to see their fortunes diverging as radically as the Census says.
So I think one set of numbers is incorrect. Especially since the census underestimated
Massachusetts by about 200,000 people in 2019 and overestimated Fl, TX and AZ.
Also the estimates for MA would have an error range of +/- 350,000 (at 5%, which if you asks me, does seem a wee bit useless)so when they say the population decreased by 8,000 *the census* is saying it’s possible it grew
that makes so much sense. They're cheaper and offer similar lifestyles and proximity to family or work . That's like the #1 logical explanation.
You're mentioning Mass and CT as if they're comparably priced but they're not. Mass has a huge push factor that CT does not.
CT and VT also gain from NYC ex-pats. I dunno..this all seems to line up.
that makes so much sense. They're cheaper and offer similar lifestyles and proximity to family or work . That's like the #1 logical explanation.
You're mentioning Mass and CT as if they're comparably priced but they're not. Mass has a huge push factor that CT does not.
CT and VT also gain from NYC ex-pats. I dunno..this all seems to line up.
Agreed with most of this. CT has a lot of people moving south (retirees) but sees even more influx from NY NJ and MA... mostly NY.
However, their calculations for more urban areas are way off. New York City and Boston... with rents at an all time high, vacancies at an all time low and persons per household ticking upwards... are not continuously losing people. Im not sure how they are counting growth, but its not working for our more urban areas.
Does any of this take into account the number of illegal immigrants?I know some people want them counted, others don't. But the fact is, they are here and they gotta live somewhere.
Next census is going to be interesting. I think we're going to end up counting them - or at least asking them to be counted. A lot of them will continue to hide themselves.
Illegals are counted.
The problem is they don't want to be counted, being afraid of the authorities. The undercount is significant since most reliable estimates of the illegal population is between 25 and 40 million!!
The other issue with recent census data is treatment of people with second homes. My county is 40% second homes and with COVID they were ALL over here on April 1st, 2020. But they counted themselves as back at their primary home.
The 2020 Census was one of the worst counts in recent history.
The problem is they don't want to be counted, being afraid of the authorities. The undercount is significant since most reliable estimates of the illegal population is between 25 and 40 million!!
The other issue with recent census data is treatment of people with second homes. My county is 40% second homes and with COVID they were ALL over here on April 1st, 2020. But they counted themselves as back at their primary home.
The 2020 Census was one of the worst counts in recent history.
Unauthorized Immigrants count for 11,000,000 people in the USA lol. Thats 1/3 to 1/4 the number you stress.
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