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Yall really feel metros are getting less centralized? All the jobs seem to be dying to locate in the primary city, hence the gentrification.
I think that’s being counteracted by the trend in hiring where you spray your resume to every company within 25 miles and pray. Rather than before Indeed/LinkedIn when you tended to apply to things locally and work out from there. As a result even people with non specialized roles are commuting say 13 miles vs 3 miles to the town center like before. Even the most suburban suburb does not have the majority working in the city. (Also Boston, New York, DC and Chicago are actually outliers in outperforming their metro growth rate going into 2020)
However I don’t think it’s a huge trend issue. It’s just that the census methodology is a poor fit for regions of the country for more than one city. And it’s really bad when you have multi county MSA’s interacting with each other. Then you got Mansfield and Attleboro commuters to Norwood dragging Kingston and Narragansett into the “Boston area” where it does not belong.
I think multiple core counties are a mistake. Especially in Boston where it just happens that Norfolk and Middlesex kind of Radiate from the city. With Cambrudge and Quincy being in far Corners of the county.
CT is a really good example how Gerrymandering for a lack of a better word can radically reshape CSA areas. Hartford changed by 1.3 (50%)million people by redrawing some lines and thus reassigned a chunk of SW/South-Central to it rather than NY. However, it’s MSA was pretty stable. While New Haven lost 35% of its MSA cause apparently a few towns in the west of New Haven County were the only thing tethering anew Haven to New York. Without changing commuter pattern significantly.
Last edited by btownboss4; 07-24-2023 at 10:14 AM..
Well CT is a good example of how Counties are bad base units. They’re too big. The fact is all these years eastern New Haven County was being dragged into the New York CSA because a few towns on the western edge of the county are sort of NYC suburbs.
They are upgrading the New Haven line of Metro North to NYC on the CT side.
Expect New Haven to be back in NYC CSA by 2040 census if the definitions will stay more or less the same as the upgrades will take 10 years apparently...
New Haven county is now the only one not in NYC CSA that has a direct commuter rail access to NYC.
Yall really feel metros are getting less centralized? All the jobs seem to be dying to locate in the primary city, hence the gentrification.
Perhaps too much of a blanket statement. The increase in the number of metropolitan divisions indicates a certain level of decentralization. Atlanta and Tampa having metropolitan divisions this go around is an indication. There are also metros losing counties. St. Tammany from New Orleans being the prime example (though this may be a case due to New Orleans continued decline.) Asheville lost Haywood County to its own micro is another example. I think there is some decentralization going on.
Dying to relocate to the primary city?
You must be pulling our legs.
Take DFW. They have been killing it on corporate relocations, but Dallas daytime population has not budged in the last 20 years.
Yeah the metro has grown by about 3M people in that time, but the decentralized nature of the metro does not reflect that change on the central city.
DFW has suburbs that are comparable to full fledged cities in terms of the number of jobs .
Even a place like Austin. Which has had a ton of jobs concentrated in the core is becoming less centralized.
I need to take a wider look at other cities daytime population, but I would wager it is much of the same
In Boston? yea. 100%. A huge huge complaint is the metro is hyper-centralized in downtown Boston/Cambridge. Constant lab space builds with few residential builds.
People are always clamoring for more jobs in the gateway cities. And more housing outside of Boston. And they talk about putting a new airport outside of Boston. Its not like DFW in this respect at all.
I've been to the Metroplex. It is the antithesis of Boston/NYC/Philly. But especially Boston.
They are upgrading the New Haven line of Metro North to NYC on the CT side.
Expect New Haven to be back in NYC CSA by 2040 census if the definitions will stay more or less the same as the upgrades will take 10 years apparently...
New Haven county is now the only one not in NYC CSA that has a direct commuter rail access to NYC.
New Haven County doesn't really exist anymore, I wonder if it will at all by 2040- 80 years after its county government would have been eliminated. And 20 years after its been basically scrapped altogether by the state.
What are the upgrades and what difference in commute times are anticipated?
New Orleans dropped a full 10 spots in the MSA rankings. Never thought I’d see the day where NOLA becomes a peer city to Omaha. They’ve essentially accelerated a couple decades worth of population decline. Has a change this dramatic occurred in recent times? I can’t think of one example since I started following this stuff in the 2000s.
Yeah New Orleans has only dropped it's position on paper. In reality it didn't just magically drop behind 10 metros in population. Clearly there are commuting shifts happening in the region.
I also noticed that since Grand Rapids gained a county back it's within 4,000 of Buffalo and Hartford. It could surpass them by next years estimates in theory. Though again they are still larger cities when you're there on the ground and away from the statistics.
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Btw, I love your position on the fraud metros. Thank you for continuing to call them out
Lol thanks. Perhaps I feel a bit too strong about them. There are a couple others that I'm on the fence about, but these 2 are the most egregious IMO. Seeing Riverside ahead of both Detroit and Seattle grinds my gears lol. I think metros should at minimum have their own TV market to be considered full MSA's, but I don't make the rules.
New Haven County doesn't really exist anymore, I wonder if it will at all by 2040- 80 years after its county government would have been eliminated. And 20 years after its been basically scrapped altogether by the state.
What are the upgrades and what difference in commute times are anticipated?
The county exists for census purposes.
They are upgrading Metro North train speed in CT to shave off 25 minutes from New Haven to Grand Central.
In Boston? yea. 100%. A huge huge complaint is the metro is hyper-centralized in downtown Boston/Cambridge. Constant lab space builds with few residential builds.
People are always clamoring for more jobs in the gateway cities. And more housing outside of Boston. And they talk about putting a new airport outside of Boston. Its not like DFW in this respect at all.
I've been to the Metroplex. It is the antithesis of Boston/NYC/Philly. But especially Boston.
True, but it is more representative of current growth. Boston, NY, Philly is the exception.
It's also why I don't see the US having a 3rd megacity anytime soon. The closest city with the intensity of a megacity is Chicago and it is going in the wrong direction.
There are places, such as Hong Kong, with less than 10M but is so intense, then we have DC... it's just not the same.
After Chicago, SF would be my next choice for US mega city status, but it too is becoming more decentralized.
DFW is waaay to decentralized that I wouldn't call it a mega city even if it had 15M.
DC is increasing its central density, and is changing before my eyes, but Baltimore is too much of a crutch in getting it to 10M.
Miami is far from centralized, and isn't growing as fast as it was 20 years ago. But I am impressed by its structural growth.
New Haven County doesn't really exist anymore, I wonder if it will at all by 2040- 80 years after its county government would have been eliminated. And 20 years after its been basically scrapped altogether by the state.
What are the upgrades and what difference in commute times are anticipated?
What does "it doesn't exist" mean? I know town governments are generally stronger in New England vs. county (polar opposite of out west where there are 50,000 person suburbs that are unincorporated), but has the county government literally been dissolved, and it's only used for statistical purposes? Is it happening to other counties out there?
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