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Chester County, the wealthiest and fastest growing county in PA has become increasingly blue with each election cycle.
Montgomery and Delaware Counties are solidly blue with red pockets. The most purple county near Philadelphia is Bucks County, which will be closely watched in 2024.
New Jersey suburbs are trending red, and outside the NEC urban cities such as Jersey City, Newark, Plainfield, Princeton and Trenton, and what immediately surround them…. NJ is actually pretty damn red. I live in Bergen County in a municipality that is about 60:40 to Republicans favor, which is really high given we are 7 miles outside Manhattan.
Monmouth County NJ is a republican hot spot as well.
Overall, I would say Long Island, Staten Island and the suburban NJ towns are trending more red.
Its a big change coming from Massachusetts where its solidly blue around Boston. My fruends from NY always call NJ, the “Republican Massachusetts “. Lol
I was always surprised at how many Republicans were in Orange County, CA as well. It seems to trend blue with Trump in the mix, but otherwise, pretty red.
If you look at more fine grained maps you'll see there's a more or less contiguous stretch of red from Huntington Beach, down the coast, into San Diego County right down to the border.
We're seeing some shift similar to Atlanta in both DFW and Houston.
For Houston - the biggest shift is probably in Fort Bend Co, which is far and away the most diverse suburban county in the metro area, and has been shifting to purple / light blue from historically heavy red.
For DFW - areas like Collin Co is nowhere as red as it was, as it continues to grow along with getting more and more diverse. Denton Co is slightly behind in that regards, but is also shifting bluer (although still red overall).
Suburbs like Montgomery Co of Houston (i.e. The Woodlands area) or Rockwall Co of DFW remains deep red, though.
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A few suburban areas I'm familiar with:
Baltimore - Baltimore City and Co is fully blue nowaday. The biggest recent shift would be Howard Co, which is the most diverse county in the metro - it's now heavy blue after being somewhat purple for years. Anne Arundel Co is shifting bluer overall as West County (the part closer to Fort Meade, which is more commutable to DC) grows but the former "blue collar" area of AA Co (i.e. Glen Burnie) is definitely redder, with votes mostly along racial lines.
Otherwise, Harford Co and Carroll Co are deep red, and will remain so for awhile.
DC:
On Maryland side, Frederick Co shift blue (and is shifting bluer) as it continues to grow due to MoCo mostly being built out. MoCo itself has always been blue similar to FFX in NoVA. Places like PG and Charles are deep blue due to its large African-American population (some of them quite well off).
On Virginia side - FFX, Arlington, and Alexndria had been blue for years, and will stay so. Loudoun Co and PW gets the new growth, and are both solid blue now. For Loudoun there's definitely a divide between the suburbia part around Dulles Airport / East of Leesburg, versus the exurban part to the west which is deep red.
On the other part of "NoVA", Stafford Co had shift blue recently and should be trending bluer as the suburbia parts continue to grow. Spotsylvania Co remains light red, though, and doesn't look like it'll change for another 10 years or so.
The exurban part of NoVA (Fauquier, Warren, Clarke, etc.) stays deep red.
Williamson County near Austin used to be crazy conservative but now I think even it is shifting left.
Not just Williamson (which is more or less purple now leaning blue), but Hays County to the SW as well. As Austin metro continues to grow, the suburban counties also trend a lot more blue. And it's not necessarily just anti-Trump votes, either - Abbott barely won Williamson in 2022 and Hays turned blue in governor election since 2018.
Of the top 50 metros how would break down about? It's easy to say blue state, red state, blue city, red city but when you look at the immediate suburbs of these cities (the big ones all blue) what does that situation look like? Not asking for a drawn out political ideology war more just asking what it is.
The bay area appears to always have had blue suburbs even back when California was red.
I notice the inland empire (if that's still considered LA's extended suburbs to me it is) has going blue in recent years when it was traditionally very red.
Philadelphia and Boston look like they have blue immediate suburbs.
New York City interestingly enough seems to have some red suburbs like Long Island that seem to be getting redder.
Atlanta's historically very red suburbs seem to be getting more blue rather famously having big time national election consequences in recent years.
Chicago's collar counties seemed to have gone blue over the years after historically being red.
Dallas and Houston have very red suburbs.
Am I off on any of these? What are your takes and what direction do you think they are going in? Even in plenty more not listed.
The only “Very Red” suburbs of Houston are in Montgomery County. The rest of the suburbs are pretty much purple. Both Harris and Ft. Bend as a whole lean blue. This would have been true 10 years ago.
The only “Very Red” suburbs of Houston are in Montgomery County. The rest of the suburbs are pretty much purple. Both Harris and Ft. Bend as a whole lean blue. This would have been true 10 years ago.
Both Brazoria and Galveston Co remains very red overall. Places like Pearland is mix bag (The newer part closer to 288 leans blue, the older part closer to TX-35 leans red), but once you're in the more rural part (i.e. Alvin) it's very red.
Fort Bend Co overall is light blue, but it's also divided - MO City with its large African-American population is very blue, Sugar Land is purple (Asians tend to vote both way, although leaning blue), and Katy (i.e. Cinco Ranch) is light red. It definitely did changed as Fort Bend used to be much redder.
Not just Williamson (which is more or less purple now leaning blue), but Hays County to the SW as well. As Austin metro continues to grow, the suburban counties also trend a lot more blue. And it's not necessarily just anti-Trump votes, either - Abbott barely won Williamson in 2022 and Hays turned blue in governor election since 2018.
Out of all the suburban counties in Texas, Williamson shocks me the most. I would never have thought it would be competitive. But Williamson County has been trending purple since 2016. No way I would even say this even in 2005. Also you are definitely correct that it isn't just Trump. Williamson County also went to Collier for LT Governor and Garza for Att. General.
As for Dallas and Houston. Houston has more deep red suburbs such as Montgomery, Galveston, and Brazoria counties. But the metro still went slightly blue due to the large populations of Harris and Ft. Bend County. Brazoria will be interesting in the coming cycles though. I think it is headed in the same direction as Ft. Bend County.
DFW counties are purple outside of Dallas. Tarrant I don't believe is no longer reliably red. Collin and Denton county is trending in that direction.
Both Brazoria and Galveston Co remains very red overall. Places like Pearland is mix bag (The newer part closer to 288 leans blue, the older part closer to TX-35 leans red), but once you're in the more rural part (i.e. Alvin) it's very red.
Fort Bend Co overall is light blue, but it's also divided - MO City with its large African-American population is very blue, Sugar Land is purple (Asians tend to vote both way, although leaning blue), and Katy (i.e. Cinco Ranch) is light red. It definitely did changed as Fort Bend used to be much redder.
Forgot about Galveston and Brazoria. I guess I forgot Brazoria because Pearland is really the only developed part of the county that’s connected to Houston though Iowa Colony and Manvel are developing. Pearland is kinda purple like you said with it being split between new and old. Galveston is pretty red too I agree. I would say most of the Houston suburbs are in a purpleish range (either light blue, light red, or mixed) and the more rural parts of the counties are solid red. Montgomery County seems to be the main exception of having heavily developed areas that are “very red” (The Woodlands) though I guess League City would qualify too in Galveston County.
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