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Long Island is pretty red - probably the reddest suburban area of a major US city in the country. I think that comes from many working class families employed in civil service (lots of firefighters and police officers from the city live in Long Island, lots of HVAC business owners etc). Entrepreneurs and business owners seem to vote red. Even many of the affluent towns in Connecticut, while some have gone blue, still have a lot of Republicans. Many are still solid red - but not nearly as red as Long Island.
Down here in South FL, it’s an interesting mix. Many inner core Miami suburbs are red, but once you cross into Broward County suburbs, they turn dark blue. Then you hit the Palm Beach County suburbs where Boca is red, Delray is blue, and it’s all over the map depending on where you go. Palm Beach County went blue against Trump, but red for DeSantis.
I was always surprised at how many Republicans were in Orange County, CA as well. It seems to trend blue with Trump in the mix, but otherwise, pretty red.
4 out of the 6 Congressional seats in Orange County are currently held by Democrats (although one of the four is in a district that contains territory from LA County as well). According to Wikipedia, the two Orange County districts that are currently represented by a Republican were among the 18 Republican-helmed districts nationally that went for Biden in 2020. Edit to add that Orange County, like San Diego to its south, overall seems to be trending blue in recent years--both were formerly Republican mainstays. I'm less aware of the Inland Empire, but the OP reports similar developments in that swath of LA exurbia
Are these demographic changes due mainly to huge surges in minority populations in these counties, or is it that white people are leaving them in droves? Or both? If the latter, where are they going?
It’s due to a couple of things. The white population of Gwinnett County for instance grew larger; however, there was also a massive increase in other races occupying the county as well.
According to USAFacts.org, “In 2021, the largest racial or ethnic group in Gwinnett County was the white (non-Hispanic) group, which had a population of 320,319. Between 2010 and 2021, the Black (non-Hispanic) population had the most growth increasing by 91,965 from 187,063 in 2010 to 279,028 in 2021.”
Source - https://usafacts.org/data/topics/peo...innett-county/
The county’s racial makeup as of 2021 is 33% white, 29% black, 22% hispanics, 13% asian, and 3% other making it one of the most diverse counties in the nation and is considered the most diverse county in the southeast - https://www.georgiatrend.com/2019/08...utiful-mosaic/.
The population of Gwinnett is younger, more diverse, and constantly growing which coincides with it flipping from red to blue some years ago. The same is happening with other surrounding counties around Atlanta too, such as Cobb, Henry, Newton, Rockdale, Douglas, and soon Fayette. Fayette should turn blue next election.
It’s due to a couple of things. The white population of Gwinnett County for instance grew larger; however, there was also a massive increase in other races occupying the county as well.
According to USAFacts.org, “In 2021, the largest racial or ethnic group in Gwinnett County was the white (non-Hispanic) group, which had a population of 320,319. Between 2010 and 2021, the Black (non-Hispanic) population had the most growth increasing by 91,965 from 187,063 in 2010 to 279,028 in 2021.”
Source - https://usafacts.org/data/topics/peo...innett-county/
The county’s racial makeup as of 2021 is 33% white, 29% black, 22% hispanics, 13% asian, and 3% other making it one of the most diverse counties in the nation and is considered the most diverse county in the southeast - https://www.georgiatrend.com/2019/08...utiful-mosaic/.
The population of Gwinnett is younger, more diverse, and constantly growing which coincides with it flipping from red to blue some years ago. The same is happening with other surrounding counties around Atlanta too, such as Cobb, Henry, Newton, Rockdale, Douglas, and soon Fayette. Fayette should turn blue next election.
The same dynamic comes into play in Fort Bend Co TX (Houston suburb) anyway - it starts to shift purple circa 2008, and in the past 2 presidential election, the margin for Democrats is growing more. All due to the county being one of the most diverse county not just in Texas, but the entire country.
I do wonder about what's going in the NY suburbs that's not going on in Philadelphia and Boston as much. Very similar culturally but perhaps NYC is such a behemoth the difference in suburban vs city life becomes a radical change.
And when you talk about think about some of these metros, it could be possible to start looking down south for blue states. It's clearly a blue direction that way in many sunbelt metros.
I do wonder about what's going in the NY suburbs that's not going on in Philadelphia and Boston as much. Very similar culturally but perhaps NYC is such a behemoth the difference in suburban vs city life becomes a radical change.
And when you talk about think about some of these metros, it could be possible to start looking down south for blue states. It's clearly a blue direction that way in many sunbelt metros.
Is greater Philly really much bluer than metro NYC?
In regards to Boston
1) Long Island is much more traditional tract suburbs than anything in Massachusetts. White flight suburbanites mixed with existing communities rather than creating totally new ones
2) Boston was far less diverse historically so there was much less racial polarization (eg Whites retained control of the Democratic Party)
3) even rural New England is much bluer than rural NY/NJ there was no sprawling into Deeply conservative areas
There are some metro west suburbs bluer than Boston.
Is greater Philly really much bluer than metro NYC?
In regards to Boston
1) Long Island is much more traditional tract suburbs than anything in Massachusetts. White flight suburbanites mixed with existing communities rather than creating totally new ones
2) Boston was far less diverse historically so there was much less racial polarization (eg Whites retained control of the Democratic Party)
3) even rural New England is much bluer than rural NY/NJ there was no sprawling into Deeply conservative areas
There are some metro west suburbs bluer than Boston.
There’s a Trump belt south of Boston that roughly follows Route 44 from Carver to Seekonk at the RI line. Historically, those were the Irish white flight towns. Cheap land until recently. Lots of 1960s and 1970s starter homes.
The white collar Boston suburbs used to be Republican before Republican shifted to religious right and populist.
There’s a Trump belt south of Boston that roughly follows Route 44 from Carver to Seekonk at the RI line. Historically, those were the Irish white flight towns. Cheap land until recently. Lots of 1960s and 1970s starter homes.
The white collar Boston suburbs used to be Republican before Republican shifted to religious right and populist.
There actually isn’t a single precinct in Massachusetts that voted over 60% for Trump in 2020
There actually isn’t a single precinct in Massachusetts that voted over 60% for Trump in 2020
That doesn't mean there aren't a large number of areas that are much less liberal than Boston/environs.
The state is often caricatured as being uniformly liberal and Democratic, but it's much more moderate/Independent than folks give credit for.
It does still ticket-split for Republicans, for sure, as many are leery of giving the state carte blanche to the Dems, unless they're assured that the Governor will run the state from the center-left (i.e., Maura Healey).
That doesn't mean there aren't a large number of areas that are much less liberal than Boston/environs.
The state is often caricatured as being uniformly liberal and Democratic, but it's much more moderate/Independent than folks give credit for.
It does still ticket-split for Republicans, for sure, as many are leery of giving the state carte blanche to the Dems, unless they're assured that the Governor will run the state from the center-left (i.e., Maura Healey).
Yes it isn’t 100% blue but in 2020 NJ was D+15.8, Massachusetts was D+33.5%.
It’s actually more true now than on 08 when Mass was “only” D+27 that there really isn’t a red direction. In 2008 you could argue the South Shore had Republican suburbs but increasingly, that’s not true. Not a single town on the Shore voted for Trump. Trump got the majority of the vote in 1 town in Suffolk, Norfolk, Middlesex and Essex Counties combined. Carver a town in the “Trump Belt” Trump won by 3 points.
Obviously not the whole state is D+70 like Boston but the fact not a single precinct (Eg 1 polling location) (typical 1500-3000 people blocks) that Trump broke 60% is remarkable. Massachusetts isn’t ultra super blue, it’s has a remarkably consistent political geography. Tennessee, the state with the highest raw margin for Republicans in 2020, still has two Dem congressmen because there are very blue areas of the state. Mass hasn’t elected a Republican congressman since 1994.
2 or 3 people mentioned Long Island and New Jersey suburbs trending Republican, but parts of the Hudson Valley, indeed much of NY State outside NYC, is trending red as well. I am not 100% sure why as there are a number of different issues going on.
If you're basing this trend just on 2022 results that's premature. Those LI and Upstate seats that went Republican used to be Republican strongholds ten years ago but were flipped by Dems recently so if anything they trended blue until 2022. There was also a new map that might've hurt Dems by confusing voters. Other than George Santos who tricked everyone and won't be reelected I don't think the newly elected Republican representative are Trumpers or social conservatives.
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