Reopening reality check: Georgia's jobs aren’t flooding back (how much, cost)

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by toll_booth

Advocacy for "herd immunity" is an ideology, not science.

The goal of social distancing was to "flatten the curve" and thus buy us time to develop a vaccine without overwhelming the healthcare system. These were the recommendations from healthcare experts, not "herd immunity," which could have resulted in hundreds of millions of Americans getting sick, at least a million of us dying, and hospitals being overrun to the point where ERs had to do what Italy did during the worst stage of their outbreak: Decide within minutes whose lives will be saved and who will be left to die.

This is not exaggeration. This is not fear-mongering. This is the hard reality of what will happen if "herd immunity" were to become our national strategy.

Herd Immunity is a science.

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by toll_booth

The risk is disproportionate for the elderly, but anyone of any age can get seriously ill or die from COVID-19. And your call for "balance" is a false choice. Places that have beaten the virus, such as New Zealand and South Korea, get to start safely reopening.

Having been to both NZ and Korea they have several advantages. New Zealand is not a major hub nor destination. It has a smaller population and less density. While the China connection has been the focus the data seems to support greater infection coming from Europe. Koreans are also more likely to accept government intervention and policy. Had Americans adopted guidelines from the start we might have had better results. Instead you saw people all around not practicing social distancing, not wearing masks. That’s our cultural bias - independence even when it doesn’t help.

The UK is a bigger hub as well. With greater density.

Go back to my last post and do that data lookup from the 91-DIVOC website, but instead of selecting "Georgia," select "New York." They were the worst-infected state in the nation two months ago, but their lifesaving measures have brought the daily number of cases down.

I’ll take another look at the data. When I delved into it a week or so ago it was showing me that NY’s Herculean efforts have basically reduced them to a level approaching Georgia.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Herd Immunity is a science.

Notice I said advocacy for "herd immunity." Not "herd immunity" itself. That advocacy is an ideology that has dangerous ramifications if implemented.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by markjames68

Having been to both NZ and Korea they have several advantages. New Zealand is not a major hub nor destination. It has a smaller population and less density. While the China connection has been the focus the data seems to support greater infection coming from Europe. Koreans are also more likely to accept government intervention and policy.

The UK is a bigger hub as well. With greater density.




I’ll take another look at the data. When I delved into it a week or so ago it was showing me that NY’s Herculean efforts have basically reduced them to a level approaching Georgia.

My wife is Korean. Every Korean I have discussed this with has touted Korea’s success with COVID-19 to being a homogenous country. What works and worked there doesn’t work here or in the UK. Koreans listen to what they are told and they do it.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by markjames68

Having been to both NZ and Korea they have several advantages. New Zealand is not a major hub nor destination. It has a smaller population and less density. While the China connection has been the focus the data seems to support greater infection coming from Europe. Koreans are also more likely to accept government intervention and policy. Had Americans adopted guidelines from the start we might have had better results. Instead you saw people all around not practicing social distancing, not wearing masks. That’s our cultural bias.

The UK is a bigger hub as well. With greater density.

As I freely admitted, New Zealand and South Korea had geographic advantages.

But Seoul, South Korea has a population density of 42,000 people/sq. mi., 50% higher than that of New York City. With that kind of density, Seoul should have become one of the world's worst hotspots. It kind of did for a time, but because Koreans respect the common good much better than Americans do, they were willing to follow protections. As a result, they have beaten back the virus and have the privilege of slowly, safely reopening.

I’ll take another look at the data. When I delved into it a week or so ago it was showing me that NY’s Herculean efforts have basically reduced them to a level approaching Georgia.

You have to consider the overall trends, not just numbers on any given day, which never paint the full picture. New York was in a horrible situation two months ago, and they've progressed to an undesirable but not dire situation.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by toll_booth

Notice I said advocacy for "herd immunity." Not "herd immunity" itself. That advocacy is an ideology that has dangerous ramifications if implemented.

Your statement doesn’t change anything. Why are you trying to deny science? What next? You are going to tell me the earth is only 6,000 years old? You can advocate for just about anything. It doesn’t change what it actually is.

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by ronricks

My wife is Korean. Every Korean I have discussed this with has touted Korea’s success with COVID-19 to being a homogenous country. What works and worked there doesn’t work here or in the UK. Koreans listen to what they are told and they do it.

Except for the student protests of course - but my experience with the corporate environment there is extremely conformist.

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by toll_booth

As I freely admitted, New Zealand and South Korea had geographic advantages.

But Seoul, South Korea has a population density of 42,000 people/sq. mi., 50% higher than that of New York City. With that kind of density, Seoul should have become one of the world's worst hotspots. It kind of did for a time, but because Koreans respect the common good much better than Americans do, they were willing to follow protections. As a result, they have beaten back the virus and have the privilege of slowly, safely reopening.



You have to consider the overall trends, not just numbers on any given day, which never paint the full picture. New York was in a horrible situation two months ago, and they've progressed to an undesirable but not dire situation.

FYI Manhattan is nearly 67000 per square mile. But the case rate is likely lower as many people fled. The poorer people packed into areas of Queens didn’t have options to leave.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by ronricks

My wife is Korean. Every Korean I have discussed this with has touted Korea’s success with COVID-19 to being a homogenous country.

Absolutely irrelevant. New Zealand is more diverse, yet they also beat the virus. Any nation, whether diverse or homogeneous, can follow these life-saving recommendations.

What works and worked there doesn’t work here or in the UK. Koreans listen to what they are told and they do it.

That is why their measures worked. They didn't have people who thought they knew better than the health experts and acted recklessly out in public. We have that here. That's why we are struggling and why we will continue to struggle for the foreseeable future.

Originally Posted by ronricks

Your statement doesn’t change anything. Why are you trying to deny science? What next? You are going to tell me the earth is only 6,000 years old? You can advocate for just about anything. It doesn’t change what it actually is.

That is a "when will you stop beating your wife?" fallacy. Nowhere did I deny that herd immunity is a thing. But for the third time, I am criticizing the ADVOCACY of "herd immunity" for the coronavirus. Am I really going to have to explain the difference to you?

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by markjames68

Except for the student protests of course - but my experience with the corporate environment there is extremely conformist.

You are very right.