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Businesses cannot survive being closed for weeks at a time, much less months!
In my opinion, we have already crossed the threshold...we just havent seen it yet.
Can businesses survive losing portions or more of their workforce lost to quarantines or hospitalizations or death?
If we don't stay shut down until at the very least the end of April, and the cases of COVID19 explode far beyond the capacity of American hospitals to contain them, what happens when the truckers and factory workers, the people who keep the water flowing and the electric grid working and the food getting to the consumer, sicken and infect others? Who's going to ship out the computers and other business products so customers can pay for them?
I doubt that hundreds of thousands will die. We're at 4000 USA deaths today, three months out, and we surpassed China's lying number but their real numbers are probably more like 70-100,000 vs. their claimed 3500~.
Collapsing the US and world economies will save NO lives at all, it will cost far more in the long run than this agitprop-overblown panic-fueled crisis.
Now, suppose by some ODD coincidence, something very similar happens next winter? Do we shut down the economy for a few months?
And where in hell does a governor or POTUS get any authority to tell a legal, legitimate, licensed business to close its doors.
If you think this is chaos, wait for the avalanche of lawsuits that follow this. It will be like nothing we've ever seen before.
We've already committed to 2.2 TRILLION that's probably 50% pork and kickbacks, and Trump says hey let's spend another imaginary 2 tril that we don't have. He's gone insane.
Just to be clear, the POTUS has not shut down anyone - Governors have. States and local governments have the power to compel under police powers. They can set curfews, declare martial law, pull licenses, etc. There is less that the Feds can do. From politico https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...navirus-135826
Quote:
States—and their cities and counties by extension—possess what has long been known as a “police power” to govern for the health, welfare and safety of their citizens. This broad authority, which can be traced to English common law and is reserved to the states by the 10th Amendment, is far from radical; it justifies why states can regulate at all.
The police power of the states has been invoked on multiple occasions by the Supreme Court, often in contrast to the limited powers of the federal government. This power also has been recognized in the context of public health for decades. In a 1905 Supreme Court case that upheld mandatory smallpox vaccinations, the court observed that “upon the principle of self-defense, of paramount necessity, a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members.”
State and local governments can indeed decide to force even unwilling businesses to shut down, require people to stay mostly at home, impose curfews and even threaten noncompliance with arrest if necessary.
Can businesses survive losing portions or more of their workforce lost to quarantines or hospitalizations or death?
If we don't stay shut down until at the very least the end of April, and the cases of COVID19 explode far beyond the capacity of American hospitals to contain them....
I´m thinking at least the end of May - if - The US can do things like China did.
Can the US do this? No, IMO.
It got bad in China in mid-January. About 10 weeks later, around the first of April, China is slowly yet steadily returning to life economically and with health (knock on wood).
IMO, the US will take longer.
How much longer?
Who knows. It'll be longer than the 10 weeks China took.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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@OP
Yes, it is worth it.
This is a real life test on USA and World's ability to coup with a crisis.
JMO, it tests Leadership and the depth of the existing preparedness from the Leadership's closest advisers, WestWing directors, department heads, on down to the lowest soldier. We have seen poor advice and poor leadership. We have seen good advice and good leadership. Can we improve on it?
JMO, this particular crisis its seniors and less prepared countries hard but did not hurt the most productive members of society. Perhaps the next crisis will?
We don't know what changed DJT's mind and got him into gear. We'd like to think he came to the realization that he is the most affected person in this crisis: +70yo, overweight, probably high BP, and a near probability of 1.0 to get this virus, unless action is taken. Seems odd, that a national shutdown, will increase his chances of not getting CorVid19, damage the economy , yet ultimately save his legacy.
JMO.
YMMV
wait until, the next Pandemic, Rising oceans, Droughts, or the Zombie Apocalypse #1.
What DJT hasn't told us is that although Peak Deaths may be "at" April 30, the fat tail of this crisis assumes the continual tight social distancing protocol to at least June.
PS, with all these daily updates by DJT, we have noticed a marked improvement in his speaking and reading skills
You shouldn't be focused on numbers but looking at the whole picture. I don't understand this myopic take on a very serious situation.
Here's a for instance. I need a hysterectomy asap. I can't get one for maybe 3 months? Why? Because the health care system around the globe is being overwhelmed or about to be overwhelmed by Covid patients. My friend told me last night the her hospital is overwhelmed with Covid and one therapist just tested positive on her department. What happens if half the staff is out sick or some choose to quit? Whose going to take care of you if you have a heart attack and the rest of the staff is too busy intubating someone else with Covid? This is more than just about the number of people dying.
The supply chain from China was disrupted. That means a shortage of everything needed for health care workers. Not just PPE but medications as well. When health care providers run out or are having to reuse the same mask and gown all day like they're dong now? That's a recipe for disaster and contributes to the spread. Want to make it ten times worse? Open up the economy.
Don't even think about the collateral damage here. It's too frightening.
Lets say you open up the economy and let nature take its course. Yes, there will be some bone heads out there congregating spreading the virus at an even faster rate. The healthcare system becomes totally broken, and people are not going to go out anyway when they see the bodies piling up in refrigerator trucks in their neighborhood. You have a virus so far out of control that it makes New York look like childs play. People will be dying in waiting rooms. Even Trump sees that and has extended the stay at home guideline for 30 days, and no, we won't be open for Easter. I'm sure the Evangelicals are breathing down his neck because of lost revenue.
Stop looking at just numbers. It's simple minded nonsense.
You shouldn't be focused on numbers but looking at the whole picture. I don't understand this myopic take on a very serious situation.
Here's a for instance. I need a hysterectomy asap. I can't get one for maybe 3 months? Why? Because the health care system around the globe is being overwhelmed or about to be overwhelmed by Covid patients. My friend told me last night the her hospital is overwhelmed with Covid and one therapist just tested positive on her department. What happens if half the staff is out sick or some choose to quit? Whose going to take care of you if you have a heart attack and the rest of the staff is too busy intubating someone else with Covid? This is more than just about the number of people dying.
The supply chain from China was disrupted. That means a shortage of everything needed for health care workers. Not just PPE but medications as well. When health care providers run out or are having to reuse the same mask and gown all day like they're dong now? That's a recipe for disaster and contributes to the spread. Want to make it ten times worse? Open up the economy.
Don't even think about the collateral damage here. It's too frightening.
Lets say you open up the economy and let nature take its course. Yes, there will be some bone heads out there congregating spreading the virus at an even faster rate. The healthcare system becomes totally broken, and people are not going to go out anyway when they see the bodies piling up in refrigerator trucks in their neighborhood. You have a virus so far out of control that it makes New York look like childs play. People will be dying in waiting rooms. Even Trump sees that and has extended the stay at home guideline for 30 days, and no, we won't be open for Easter. I'm sure the Evangelicals are breathing down his neck because of lost revenue.
Stop looking at just numbers. It's simple minded nonsense.
Great post. My mother is in a similar case to you. She has the last phase of her treatment for next month. I she is cancer-free but has one follow-up procedure. Once I heard about the elective procedures being postponed, I wondered if cancer is included and it is. She didn't think it was until her doctor told her. Her surgery is up in the air.
The biggest problem with the virus is there is a LOT of things that we do not know. We are still finding new ways of the virus spread. Days ago we were told it is OK to go and not to wear masks unless you have underlying issues, now it is encouraged to wear masks as even talking and breathing is said to expose it to the air. Before it was fine to be in small groups of 50 people or less, then it was 10. This is the main reason schools are closed. Who'd of thunk that? And people wonder why companies have closed and many were long before local areas were hit. This includes churches especially for Easter. It is sickening that Christian groups still want to have Easter events despite social distancing.
I agree that China has stalled PPE production. The issue is we are not producing them fast enough for hospital workers to use to protect themselves and patients to do the same. A healthcare worker said it was like leading sheep to slaughter every day and she had to worry about writing her last will and testament at 28 years old. Let me repeat that, she is 28 year old nurse and has to worry about writing her last will and testament. Tell me again how we handled this crisis correctly.
As for the numbers, numbers are the easiest way to translate to more people. People will cite that stock photos are rather fake and doctored. A YouTube channel attacked CBS using the same video for an Italian hospital and a few days later for a New York hospital. It could have been stock, not every video or picture is live from a story.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,072 posts, read 7,508,849 times
Reputation: 9798
^
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk
I agree that China has stalled PPE production. The issue is we are not producing them fast enough for hospital workers to use to protect themselves and patients to do the same. A healthcare worker said it was like leading sheep to slaughter every day and she had to worry about writing her last will and testament at 28 years old. Let me repeat that, she is 28 year old nurse and has to worry about writing her last will and testament. Tell me again how we handled this crisis correctly.
Until a few days before March 6 [Friday], USA had a tariff on PPE from China.{https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-lifts-tariffs-on-chinese-medical-supplies-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-3-1028973176}.
A little googling came up with this:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...nt_142827.html
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