Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
You're entirely right, we cannot tell which healthy person regardless of age will live or die and which high-risk groups live or die as well. Also we don't know who is giving who the virus. Is it that guy I gave a fiver to at the toll booth? Perhaps it was the guy in line before that paid by check and the cashier touched it. Could it be my parents were in a waiting room with another patient hacking up in the waiting room? We don't know. For this reason, we HAVE to stay at home if we can.
I had asthma as a youth and sometimes have bronchitis. I have been lucky and haven't gotten it (I'm obese and likely pre-hypertensive.) But at the same time, we see people standing shoulder to shoulder at piers watching naval medical ships, packed national and state parks, and churches with people shoulder to shoulder and who knows who has the virus in these gatherings and if it spreads throughout the groups. That includes the elderly and others who are immunodeficient and other high-risk groups who maybe there or may see a family member or friend who was.
I do think more and more people should in fact stay at home. I plan on going out maybe twice a week tops and not for "small stuff." I went today for my oil change, a stop at the comic store that is closing, Walmart and lunch at Taco Bell through the drive-thru. Tomorrow I may go out but I'm not sure, but if that is the case I will not until the weekend. Next week I'm giving blood and I will go another day out for food and what not. If I lived in an area I could do Amazon shopping for groceries, I would.
We are not trying to eradicate the virus. We can in the future but not in the initial spread. We currently in the initial spread. The question is if we can slow the virus until perhaps we can have a vaccine that can eradicate it. I doubt it will stretch that long, maybe it could.
Exactly, we are just trying to slow down the rate of spread to not overwhelm the hospitals (though in a good number of metro areas, they are already.) The more cities that see the hospitals hit a failure point like New York has hit, Detroit can in days, Chicago is getting to that point, etc. we will have a larger death toll.
Well we can be at a point where it is far safer to in society again with reduced risk. That's all I can hope, and that's all any of us can hope.
Nope, we would sink the economy anyway if we quarantine all that.
How fast do you think the public is going to simply 'go back to normal' though? I would bet anything when they lift the orders and allow places to re open, MANY MANY people will stay inside or they will not go near big crowds of people for awhile.
How fast do you think the public is going to simply 'go back to normal' though? I would bet anything when they lift the orders and allow places to re open, MANY MANY people will stay inside or they will not go near big crowds of people for awhile.
Especially in places like Seattle and NYC, which have had a good first-hand look at what this virus is capable of doing.
This is going to be an unpopular answer, but no, I don't think it's worth it. If the lock down goes past April 30, the economy will suffer and people will go insane. We have to let people go back to work and continue on with their lives. The world shouldn't stop because of this virus.
So you would be okay with hospital personnel (doctors, nurses, technicians, orderlies, cleaning staff, etc.) being indefinitely flooded with thousands more cases of this virus, with little to no equipment to even try to save them, or get sick themselves? Will hospital personnel end up parking COVID19 patients over 60 (or all COVID19 patients) in a separate area so they can die without infecting the doctors and other staff? Or, if they try to save young and middle-aged patients, will the hospital personnel become so exhausted and sickened by the virus themselves that if you need to go to the hospital for other reasons, you will have to wait weeks or hours and good luck if you aren't on the point of death from a car accident or shooting?
At least let the shutdown continue to the middle or end of May if there is no improvement by the end of April. Perhaps, by then, there will be more respirators and ventilators and proper masks so that the American medical community has a chance of giving good care to COVID19 patients.
I'm close to 65, am (temporarily) immunocompromised (until I stop chemo, which should happen in about 2 years, though possibly less), and also vulnerable to cellulitis that necessitates a visit to a hospital E.R. and an IV antibiotic every 1-3 years. I'm not ready to die alone in a hospital room or in a tent due to this virus so that business as usual can resume in one month rather than two or three. Should I get the virus, I want at least a fighting chance, with a respirator and ventilator if I need it; and if they don't keep much of the general public from congregating in streets and restaurants and (some) offices for several more weeks, I and millions of others in comparable risk groups (as well as younger people) won't get that chance.
...We can’t afford to have every adult over the age of 60 and every adult between the ages of 25 and 60 who has hypertension, other cardiac problems, pulmonary problems, diabetes, kidney disease, or who is obese to be self-quarantining indefinitely. That knocks out way too much of the workforce (and many people in those categories aren’t working McJobs, either - we NEED them to keep working!). But people in every one of those groups are at significant risk.
You're right. We can't afford that. But then how can we afford a quarantine of everyone?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aredhel
The solution is to do what we are doing now for another month or so in order to knock the number of infected people to a very low level....
For a "month or so"? Perhaps. But what is the "...or so"? Is it...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Regina14
...At least let the shutdown continue to the middle or end of May if there is no improvement by the end of April. ...
...Actually two months, instead of one? Do I hear three? Six, perhaps? At what point do we decide that it is simply better to just die, than to be under house-arrest, jobless and impoverished?
You're right. We can't afford that. But then how can we afford a quarantine of everyone?
For a "month or so"? Perhaps. But what is the "...or so"? Is it...
...Actually two months, instead of one? Do I hear three? Six, perhaps? At what point do we decide that it is simply better to just die, than to be under house-arrest, jobless and impoverished?
Actually two months; hopefully the number of new cases will have decreased and maybe there would be more ventilators and respirators and masks and (very important) tests to detect the virus; and in any case, re-assess the situation at the end of May. That would be a better time to think about re-opening businesses at least to some extent; not six months from now (not sure we could survive that).
Why couldn't more factories open up to manufacture the medical equipment we need to treat (and often cure) the virus - that could employ tens of thousands of workers, maybe more.
Actually two months; hopefully the number of new cases will have decreased and maybe there would be more ventilators and respirators and masks and (very important) tests to detect the virus; and in any case, re-assess the situation at the end of May. That would be a better time to think about re-opening businesses at least to some extent; not six months from now (not sure we could survive that).
Why couldn't more factories open up to manufacture the medical equipment we need to treat (and often cure) the virus - that could employ tens of thousands of workers, maybe more.
Businesses cannot survive being closed for weeks at a time, much less months!
In my opinion, we have already crossed the threshold...we just havent seen it yet.
Businesses cannot survive being closed for weeks at a time, much less months!
Is anyone asking why this is?
Individual Americans are told that good personal financial management involves building up a savings to cover household expenses for at least 6-12 months in the event of a layoff, illness, etc. Yet - often extremely large - companies operate on an apparently razor-thin margin with absolutely no savings to cover salaries and expenses for a few months in the event of a economic downturn?
Are American companies just that bad at budgeting, or do they have a lot better access to emergency funding than individuals so they don't bother to build up a responsible level of savings to get through a crisis? At this point, periodic economic crisis is an inevitability.
How fast do you think the public is going to simply 'go back to normal' though? I would bet anything when they lift the orders and allow places to re open, MANY MANY people will stay inside or they will not go near big crowds of people for awhile.
I don't know, it keeps changing based on when the curve ends. I would say June/July we get back to normalish but who knows if people go back to vacations or back to movie theaters without some gimmick attached. Most Americans only see about two movies a year.
Individual Americans are told that good personal financial management involves building up a savings to cover household expenses for at least 6-12 months in the event of a layoff, illness, etc. Yet - often extremely large - companies operate on an apparently razor-thin margin with absolutely no savings to cover salaries and expenses for a few months in the event of a economic downturn?
Are American companies just that bad at budgeting, or do they have a lot better access to emergency funding than individuals so they don't bother to build up a responsible level of savings to get through a crisis? At this point, periodic economic crisis is an inevitability.
I think a lot of it is executive pay and the change since the 1980's where companies blocked greenmail through leveraged buyouts or bought up similar sized companies. I have only heard of two company CEOs officially going on record to forgo their pay so that employees are covered, Texas Roadhouse and Walt Disney Company. That don't mean others aren't, but many decided to furlough if not fire people outright.
Largely due to the extreme measures taken, Dr. Fauci now estimates that U.S. deaths from COVID-19 will now total between 100,000 and 200,000 instead of the previous estimate of up to about ten times that number that some other experts had predicted. https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronaviru...ry?id=69859267
So IF the final U.S. death toll from COVID-19 turns out to be about 150,000 (or less), if you figure in the despair of those who lost their jobs or businesses and might not recover, the possible violence due to shortages, the increased domestic abuse resulting from people being forced to stay home to some extent, medical personnel losing their lives because of caring for the sick, the stress and worry about loved ones, and the trillions of dollars that taxpayers will end up paying -- and also knowing that the usual number of deaths annually in the U.S. is about 3,000,000 -- do you think the extreme measures taken to prevent possibly hundreds of thousands more deaths will have been worth it?
P.S. As I personally have not formed an opinion on this question yet, I will not be debating anyone who responds, but I will most definitely be reading any responses that this post receives, so thanks in advance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rstevens62
Businesses cannot survive being closed for weeks at a time, much less months!
In my opinion, we have already crossed the threshold...we just havent seen it yet.
A holistic cost/benefit analysis appears to be a rare thing.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
