Why are we acting so different now with this pandemic compared to the Hong Kong Flu pandemic? (deaths, Obama)
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I think the response is shocking and to be honest very scary to me how the media and fear mongering is having such an effect on our minds to lock up healthy people like we are doing. Read these couple of articles to get where I am coming from. The Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 in the US back when our population was only 200 million and people only lived to an average age of 70 instead of today's 79. That would make the Hong Kong Flu much worse if it happened today and probably would have a death total of 250K in the US alone if you plugged in those numbers from years ago to today's population and age. Not to mention how fat we are now compared to the late 60's. So why are we locking up our healthy and disregarding everything else, but the pandemic?
I think the response is shocking and to be honest very scary to me how the media and fear mongering is having such an effect on our minds to lock up healthy people like we are doing. Read these couple of articles to get where I am coming from. The Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 in the US back when our population was only 200 million and people only lived to an average age of 70 instead of today's 79. That would make the Hong Kong Flu much worse if it happened today and probably would have a death total of 250K in the US alone if you plugged in those numbers from years ago to today's population and age. Not to mention how fat we are now compared to the late 60's. So why are we locking up our healthy and disregarding everything else, but the pandemic?
You certainly aren't the first person to post something like this. What I notice is that most of you don't seem to bother to read the replies you get. Its like you are in an echo chamber and all you are interested in is hearing or seeing your own words. But, I'll try again.
Rather than being fear-mongering, our response to coronavirus has been a rational one. The disease as of today has killed over 77,000 Americans and is projected to kill over 130,000 by the end of August. Prior to instituting measures of social distancing the spread rate for coronavirus was approximately 2.2. This means that the average person who got it was likely to spread it to more than two other people. This accounts for the fact that before social-distancing the disease was spreading at an exponential rate. This disease is not the influenza. It fatality rate is far higher. It is estimated that it may kill 3% of the total people infected. Influenza only kills about 1/10 of one percent of those infected. Potentially this disease could kill millions of Americans. Without social distancing it would have killed probably 500,000 people.
Economic activity is important, but it does not take precedence over human life and limb. Freedom is important too, but there is no more important freedom than the right to be able to remain alive (or not become horribly ill) and conduct your affairs. As the disease dissipates we will reconsider and fine-tune social distancing measures. As we develop an ability to test and trace the disease randomly (and not just based on those who have symptoms) it will be possible to reopen most parts of the economy.
What is needed right now in this country is a certain amount of patience not knee-jerk reactions that assert "let's go back to doing things the way we did six weeks ago".
I suggest you review this excellent article by Dr. Fauci in the New England Journal of Medicine. Our knowledge of CV may be a little bit better now, but all the main points of the article are still correct. The New England Journal of Medicine is a better source for medical information than conservative publications like the National Review.
People never cease to amaze me. There are very Nervous Nellies who think the last (Flu) Pandemic was in 1918. Ok, maybe they did not know about 1957 and 1968 Pandemics, but WHERE WERE THEY in 2009????? Pandemic declared, AND Obama also declared that a National Emergency. No shutting down businesses, no masks, no social distancing, stay at home orders, etc., but it was still a DECLARED PANDEMIC.
I think the response is shocking and to be honest very scary to me how the media and fear mongering is having such an effect on our minds to lock up healthy people like we are doing. Read these couple of articles to get where I am coming from. The Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 in the US back when our population was only 200 million and people only lived to an average age of 70 instead of today's 79. That would make the Hong Kong Flu much worse if it happened today and probably would have a death total of 250K in the US alone if you plugged in those numbers from years ago to today's population and age. Not to mention how fat we are now compared to the late 60's. So why are we locking up our healthy and disregarding everything else, but the pandemic?
Again, with the fixation on 'the media' boogeyman...
Fact:
When such reputable sources as Imperial College London, Michael Osterholm (Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota), the CDC, etc., model deaths in the several hundreds of thousands to low millions sans mitigation, and the media reports that, it is not 'media fear mongering'.
That.
Is.
News.
Period.
As for the Hong Kong Flu of 1968-69, that pandemic occurred over seven months (about 30 weeks), from September to March with little in the way of mitigation. Before today is out, we'll go over 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in 10 weeks, most of which have entailed major mitigation efforts. How is that very simple math confusing people? Note also that I am comparing CDC estimates of the total Hong Kong Flu deaths with only definitively documented cases of COVID-19, which virtually every epidemiologist on the planet thinks are a major undercount. And basic logic essentially assures that some significant number of COVID-19 deaths go unreported and/or undetected.
What part of that confuses you?
Furthermore, do you not understand that we are still early in this event? There is no reason to think that we're not going to continue at this death rate of somewhere in the general neighborhood of ~2000 deaths per day for the next several months, especially as some states are beginning to reopen. That equates to ~60,000 monthly fatalities. And even at that rate, we still won't hit herd immunity this year (7+ months, or perhaps 400,000+ deaths from now), assuming that those recovered do possess immunity, or if that immunity is enduring - things we don't presently know.
You cherry-pick incomplete data taken while the outbreak is still burning hot and claim it is valid to compare that to previous outbreaks in totality. You are either doing this in bad faith or you don't comprehend the very elementary absurdity of such comparisons.
Also, I've noted that those dedicated to running interference for the LET'S DO NOTHING! idea is undeterred by their serial wrongness lo those past few months. They've blithely shifted from "Oh, we'll stop by by shutting down all flights from China" to "Oh, a normal flu season is far, far worse" to "Well, a major outbreak 50 years ago was worse". Notwithstanding the fact that the latest claim - that Hong Kong Flu was somehow worse and comparable - is both wrong and totally ignores the fact that comparing a pandemic in which there is Herculean mitigation to one in which there is virtually none is nonsensical, there is the fact that these claimants take no responsibility for their long line of claims that have now been shown to be wildly wrong. And yet despite that abysmal track record, they still seem to think their latest claims deserve to be taken seriously.
Case in point, this post from none other than you:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gg
Apparently this amount of death is okay, or we would be on lockdown during flu season. Guess we can use this as a benchmark of death allowed?
You posted that one month ago today. You were claiming that since 15,000 U.S. deaths (at that point) was less than the listed flu seasons, we were over-reacting. Does it not follow that since total U.S. deaths have now far exceeded all of those flu seasons, that we're not over-reacting?
But, no, you just move on to your next hand-waving and abandon your previous standard.
What's next? I breathlessly await the "Well, ya know, the Black Death was much worse, so..." assertions that undoubtedly will be coming at some point.
As for the Hong Kong Flu of 1968-69, that pandemic occurred over seven months (about 30 weeks), from September to March with little in the way of mitigation. Before today is out, we'll go over 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in 10 weeks, most of which have entailed major mitigation efforts. How is that very simple math confusing people? Note also that I am comparing CDC estimates of the total Hong Kong Flu deaths with only definitively documented cases of COVID-19, which virtually every epidemiologist on the planet thinks are a major undercount. And basic logic essentially assures that some significant number of COVID-19 deaths go unreported and/or undetected.
Scientific America had a blog post on the apples to oranges nature of comparing corona talies which are direct counts of "confirmed cases where patients died of corona related causes" vs flu talies which are based on after the fact statistical estimates. If we looked only at the apples to apples comparison of direct measure there would be only 3-15k flu deaths reported each year. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...es-to-oranges/
Also death rates have been up nationally this year. In many states death rates are up even when you remove known Covid cases. These so called "excess deaths" could be a sign of Covid undercounting. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ta/3048381001/
I'm sympathetic to the idea that we can't keep our society locked down until a vaccine arrives. The economic and social costs of lock down are no doubt massive. But I don't get the NR article rhetoric about overreacting and comparing this to a bad flu season. The data is objectively horrible. We have seen 80k reported deaths in ten weeks even with a lock down.
We're facing a challenge on par with WW2 or the Spanish flu. Do we try and mitigate the damage by keeping society locked down for months or do we reopen society and risk seeing cases spiral out of control and destroy the economy (including the critical medical and food supply sectors) anyways. There are no easy answers unfortunately.
People never cease to amaze me. There are very Nervous Nellies who think the last (Flu) Pandemic was in 1918. Ok, maybe they did not know about 1957 and 1968 Pandemics, but WHERE WERE THEY in 2009????? Pandemic declared, AND Obama also declared that a National Emergency. No shutting down businesses, no masks, no social distancing, stay at home orders, etc., but it was still a DECLARED PANDEMIC.
Pandemic just means worldwide spread. It has nothing to do with the number of cases or the severity of the disease. There was treatment with antiviral medication and a vaccine available quickly.
In other words, you are comparing oranges and grapefruit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2x3x29x41
Again, with the fixation on 'the media' boogeyman...
I think the response is shocking and to be honest very scary to me how the media and fear mongering is having such an effect on our minds to lock up healthy people like we are doing. Read these couple of articles to get where I am coming from. The Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 in the US back when our population was only 200 million and people only lived to an average age of 70 instead of today's 79. That would make the Hong Kong Flu much worse if it happened today and probably would have a death total of 250K in the US alone if you plugged in those numbers from years ago to today's population and age. Not to mention how fat we are now compared to the late 60's. So why are we locking up our healthy and disregarding everything else, but the pandemic?
If we knew how to contain it so that the number of US deaths stayed below 250K without lockdowns, I think a lot of people would be in favor. The problem is not that it might get to 250K, the concern is that it could go up into the seven-figure range.
You certainly aren't the first person to post something like this. What I notice is that most of you don't seem to bother to read the replies you get. Its like you are in an echo chamber and all you are interested in is hearing or seeing your own words.
]
This can be said of BOTH sides -- those who support an indefinite "lockdown" and those who don't.
The point is that I would guess that 90% of the people posting an opinion on City-Data have been reading the articles and/or watching the news, and they have, by this time, formed an opinion one way or the other, so I think that many people get tired of the same arguments and the same people citing the same facts. I think that what determines the viewpoint of most people about this issue is how much risk they are personally willing to take, how much freedom they are personally willing to give up, and how much the economy slowdown has affected them and those they care about.
Just because two people have different opinions does not mean that one person is stupid and/or ignorant, and the other is not.
However, I will say AGAIN that the number of infections and deaths that being given out cannot be trusted for all the reasons that have been stated over and over again, and not just by me.
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