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Also, the assumption that Africa will simply keep growing is probably unfounded; as Listener pointed out, the Africans cannot feed themselves. Four billion people on that troubled continent would be unsustainable. All of the megafauna would be wiped out for food, the jungles razed for timber and farmland, the chimpanzees gone, lions gone, elephants gone. It would be a mess of awful, impoverished slums, with the elites dwelling in secure compounds walled off from the riffraff, and wars over shrinking resources would be raging.
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the world might hit its 10 billion peak prior to the 22nd Century, then quickly drop back to 9 billion by 2100. Just the China/East Asian Rim/India crash alone will probably take a billion out of that number, and Africa can't possibly sustain 4.2 billion. It will stop around 2 billion and implode.
Meanwhile, Siberia will become the new bread basket of the world, possibly taking in lots of people from war-devastated regions to shore up the Russian Federation's population as its European component fades. The future RF will be brown and Asian. And probably less inclined to start wars.
The United States, alone among nations, will retain some semblance of its national character, because of its melting pot tradition and resilient form of self-government. We will go through some difficult times, undoubtedly (right now feels difficult but I suspect the worst is yet to come). But in the long run, the 21st Century will be the Second American Century.
These are my predictions; okay I'll stop now
I agree with ohio_peasant that there is something fundamentally off with the human species. Without going to look it up there have been vast quantities of species that have gone extinct. We know this. We also know that their extinction didn't happen overnight. We also know that in some cases the earth birthed (evolution) a replacement species. When I was in my teens (70s) I would try to imagine what type of species (if there's one to be) would replace us? What does the human species evolution look like? Then I determined that that was a fools notion and went on with my life. However, this conversation does give to me pause to reflect, once again.
Every animal on this planet has survival instincts ingrained within them. Humans being the only animal on the planet with reasoning abilities, could it be that fewer babies is our survival instinct kicking in? Or maybe it's our survival instinct that's fundamentally off kilter and is being overshadowed by man's ability to reason.
In the 70s we talked about the ozone layer. That that is laid out as a cushion between the earth and the sun. (again without looking it up) It was said that we are killing the ozone layer and without that layer, the earth and its inhabitants will become more susceptible to the rays of the sun. Maybe, nature, is setting things right, to protect the planet and humans are not to be replaced, but are to evolve out. It took us 10,000 years to get here. I suspect it'll take another 10,000 years for the proof to be seen in that pudding.
What will the future look like? I got a sneak peak into that the other day on YouTube and the shorts, a video rolled up, that made me go wow Here is an extended version of that video ... (our future real or imagined, the new habitat, that I'm sure will be a gas)
"The Line is Actually Happening" is the title of the short I viewed. Cities developed in this fashion takes care of empty buildings, vacant houses, policing and the cities affordability to keep the lights on ... however, imo, there's something missing. But I bet the people living in the future, won't know what it is, to even miss it.
Nicely illustrated. The gist is that "Children born today will very likely live to see the end of global population growth."
Key excerpts:
Quote:
A baby born this year will be 60 in the 2080s, when demographers at the U.N. expect the size of humanity to peak. The Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna places the peak in the 2070s. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington puts it in the 2060s. All of the predictions agree on one thing: We peak soon. ...And then we shrink. Humanity will not reach a plateau and then stabilize. It will begin an unprecedented decline. ...
The authors are using two sources on top of the usual U.N. predictions.
Here's a key excerpt for me:
Quote:
Because most demographers look ahead only to 2100, there is no consensus on exactly how quickly populations will fall after that.
No one KNOWS what will happen; some predict dire consequences, some think it's no problem.
The reader comments on Times articles are usually excellent, especially those under "Reader Picks."
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And in 60 years, we went from a world full of people that thought about environment as some sort of site localized pollution issue to climate change being something on the tip of seemingly every conversation. There is no way demographics will not be on the tip of every conversation in 60 years. This won't hit people in some sort of OMG moment.
Also, what will the current social and cultural attitudes be when we've got all these childless elderly folk telling stories to younguns... Younguns will probably think, jeez, the elderly people with kids have it better off than the childless ones. I've mentioned it before, but I'll bring it up again - by 2050, most all kids globally will be born to people that distinctly had a drive to make those kids, despite it being easier financially and lifestyle wise not to have them. Kids born from those subset of people will be different than kids born in the 1980s set of birthers.
There's been this perpetual theme in this thread that as people get high incomes, they stop having babies. I really doubt that will be the case when people ACTUALLY hit todays upper middle class levels. I just really don't think people will chase the $240,000 household income lifestyle over the $140,000 one. Since covid, the dominant theme is people are trading more time instead of bigger incomes. We'll be at some level of a 4 day workweek 2040 - that's a pretty certain estimation by this point.
Also not to be underestimated is the proliferation of remote work. On virtually every level, remote work makes it easier to raise kids: being able to move to a lower COL area, schedule flexibility, ability to be with them physically... even if it is just one of the spouses. On the other hand, this will eventually cross borders. For low income countries this means people will rapidly be lifted out of the have lots of kids mode to the upward rising middle class, and at the high income countries, it like a recipe for kid creation - especially as it matures. Both positive trends.
So, here's my prophesies: no way are we getting to 10 billion - that gets revised down every time and Africa will not balloon to like 4 billion people or something absurd. Likewise we are not going to drop down below 6 billion people after peak. The positive feedback loops that make people want to have kids will kick into high gear post 2100.
And it will be a good world. Canada will be warm enough to live in, we'll be a lot more efficient, people will mostly all be environmentally minded, and the population will be much better distributed instead of clumped into metros with vast tracts of agriwilderness between...
Last edited by Mike from back east; 09-19-2023 at 09:06 AM..
Reason: Fixed a typo.
And in 60 years, we went from a world full of people that thought about environment as some sort of site localized pollution issue to climate change being something on the tip of seemingly every conversation. There is no way demographics will not be on the tip of every conversation in 60 years. This won't hit people in some sort of OMG moment.
Also, what will the current social and cultural attitudes be when we've got all these childless elderly folk telling stories to younguns... Younguns will probably think, jeez, the elderly people with kids have it better off than the childless ones. I've mentioned it before, but I'll bring it up again - by 2050, most all kids globally will be born to people that distinctly had a drive to make those kids, despite it being easier financially and lifestyle wise not to have them. Kids born from those subset of people will be different than kids born in the 1980s set of birthers.
There's been this perpetual theme in this thread that as people get high incomes, they stop having babies. I really doubt that will be the case when people ACTUALLY hit todays upper middle class levels. I just really don't think people will chase the $240,000 household income lifestyle over the $140,000 one. Since covid, the dominant theme is people are trading more time instead of bigger incomes. We'll be at some level of a 4 day workweek 2040 - that's a pretty certain estimation by this point.
Also not to be underestimated is the proliferation of remote work. On virtually every level, remote work makes it easier to raise kids: being able to move to a lower COL area, schedule flexibility, ability to be with them physically... even if it is just one of the spouses. On the other hand, this will eventually cross borders. For low income countries this means people will rapidly be lifted out of the have lots of kids mode to the upward rising middle class, and at the high income countries, it like a recipe for kid creation - especially as it matures. Both positive trends.
So, here's my prophesies: no way are we getting to 10 billion - that gets revised down every time and Africa will not balloon to like 4 billion people or something absurd. Likewise we are not going to drop down below 6 billion people after peak. The positive feedback loops that make people want to have kids will kick into high gear post 2100.
And it will be a good world. Canada will be warm enough to live in, we'll be a lot more efficient, people will mostly all be environmentally minded, and the population will be much better distributed instead of clumped into metros with vast tracts of agriwilderness between...
Yes, I believe this as well. We (in the post-industrial West, and in east Asia) are bifurcating into the birthers and the birth-nots.
The birth-nots are saying, why should I have a child. I can't relate to the experience. It costs too much, I'm too maladjusted to be a good parent, there are too many people in the world, climate change, I want to enjoy life, I can't find a partner, etc. etc.
The birthers are saying, I can't wait to have kids. I love kids. I want to pass on my genes/traits. I want someone to tell stories to, to show them how magical and wonderful the world is. I feel an instinct to procreate. I want someone to take care of me when I'm elderly. Etc.
The intentional families will likely be larger. The birth-nots will either totally avoid it, or may have one child by accident or 40-regret (women turning 40, saying OMG I'd better do it now, or never).
Regardless, the population will crash. Is crashing. But, it will stabilize because the young ones will be raised with stronger family orientation and will be more likely to have children themselves.
Last edited by Mike from back east; 09-19-2023 at 09:07 AM..
Reason: Fixed a typo in the quoted material.
Yes, I believe this as well. We (in the post-industrial West, and in east Asia) are bifurcating into the birthers and the birth-nots.
The birth-nots are saying, why should I have a child. I can't relate to the experience. It costs too much, I'm too maladjusted to be a good parent, there are too many people in the world, climate change, I want to enjoy life, I can't find a partner, etc. etc.
The birthers are saying, I can't wait to have kids. I love kids. I want to pass on my genes/traits. I want someone to tell stories to, to show them how magical and wonderful the world is. I feel an instinct to procreate. I want someone to take care of me when I'm elderly. Etc.
The intentional families will likely be larger. The birth-nots will either totally avoid it, or may have one child by accident or 40-regret (women turning 40, saying OMG I'd better do it now, or never).
Regardless, the population will crash. Is crashing. But, it will stabilize because the young ones will be raised with stronger family orientation and will be more likely to have children themselves.
Exactly. There's a lot of people who are good people, but don't necessarily have the physical or mental temperament to want to raise kids. Now days they don't, before (even as recently as the 60s), that was not a culturally acceptable option. Even today in places like Pakistan, I believe we're seeing a big divergence here where people aren't obligated to have kids. There will likely be more 3-5 kid families and less 1-2 kid ones. Regarding population, I think this leads to a short term substantial drop, but a long term sustaining feature as the future set of humans will be more inclined to reproduce than the prior set.
One of the main reason I believe contributes to population declines in the western world is centralized on greed. I want to enjoy excess but I don't want to share with others unless there are benefits to me.
I've met so many young people today and they could only think of being with someone or providing somebody if it offers them some benefits.
Fewer younger couples would adopt a child but they have no issues adopting that pet puppy or turtle. Because they see children as a huge liability with no benefits.
I warned them, don't complain when there aren't enough children there to assist with changing your diapers when you are old and frail.
China Is Suffering a Brain Drain. The U.S. Isn’t Exploiting It. China’s brightest minds, including tech professionals, are emigrating, but many are not heading to America. We spoke to them to ask why.
They went to the best universities in China and in the West. .... Now they are living and working in North America, Europe, Japan, Australia — and just about any developed country. (i.e., any western-style democratic nation.)
Chinese — from young people to entrepreneurs — are voting with their feet to escape political oppression, bleak economic prospects and often grueling work cultures. Increasingly, the exodus includes tech professionals and other well-educated middle-class Chinese.
“I left China because I didn’t like the social and political environment,” said Chen Liangshi, 36, ... He made the decision after China abolished the term limit for the presidency in 2018, a move that allowed its top leader, Xi Jinping, to stay in power indefinitely. ... “I will not return to China until it becomes democratic,” said Chen Liangshi, who works for Meta in London.
There you have it. They've had a taste of democracy when they studied abroad and they want more of it. Like that old WW-1 song, "How ya gonna keep'em down on the farm after they've seen Paree." (Paris)
Since the link will get you past the paywall, be sure to check out the comments from readers, especially those under "Reader Picks" as these usually are outstanding comments.
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Last edited by Mike from back east; 10-03-2023 at 01:42 PM..
There you have it. They've had a taste of democracy when they studied abroad and they want more of it. Like that old WW-1 song, "How ya gonna keep'em down on the farm after they've seen Paree." (Paris)
Since the link will get you past the paywall, be sure to check out the comments from readers, especially those under "Reader Picks" as these usually are outstanding comments.
U.S. State Dept. and INS seem mainly interested in helping keep up the flow of illegals over the southern border. They have zero interest in recruiting the best and brightest from China and other nations.
In keeping with the topic, this will certainly maintain birth rates and low end worker population around the U.S. and I suppose that is the goal... to the extent that the U.S. gov't has any rational goals.
China has long practiced hostage politics. People who go abroad to study, for example to get a doctoral degree in the U.S. or Europe, generally aren't allowed to bring their families with them. "You ever want to see your mom and dad again? You have to come home."
I don't believe this policy benefits China, over the long run. It fosters a kind of refugee mentality of desperation among the elite technology people, a sense they are prisoners. Obviously, many people are just making a living and not thinking much about these things, but there must be a certain number of them who feel imprisoned.
This video just dropped on Youtube. It reiterates many of the points discussed in this forum. Her main thing is that there is a large and growing untapped labor force in the world that we call "migrants".
Millennials, aka Gen Y, are the demographic cohort following Gen X and preceding Gen Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years, with the generation typically being defined as people born from 1981 to 1996 . . .
Annual live births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44 peaked in 1957 at 122.9 and once the birth control pill was approved in 1958 the rate by 1975 was down to 66. Since then it has now fallen to 56, less than half of the peak year.
Zero-child families are now 35% of the population.
There's discussion about what size of family people think is the right size..... and lots of good graphics.
Still, a few key excerpts:
Quote:
For now, we can tell you that marriage rates have steadily declined, and unmarried folks are less likely to have kids. The same goes for that other major marker of building your own household: a building. Millennials were late to homeownership, which made it harder to start families.
But neither offers a full explanation. Both married and unmarried Americans have shifted toward childlessness in the millennial era. And levels of childlessness have actually accelerated among millennials as their homeownership rates have recently grown.
... just about every source we consulted pointed to the broader economic climate. Hammered by the Great Recession, soaring student debt, precarious gig employment, skyrocketing home prices and the covid-19 crisis, millennials probably faced more economic headwinds in their childbearing years than any other generation. And, as sociologist Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, told us, it put them behind on everything you’re supposed to line up before you have kids.
So the decision to avoid having children may amount to a kind of performance anxiety in the face of intense expectations and weak governmental and social support, Guzzo said: “If I don’t do everything right, then my kid will end up living on my couch forever or be a serial killer. … I don’t know if or when I’ll have what it takes to be a ‘good’ parent. “The stakes are so high. I don’t want to screw it up.”
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Here is an extended version of that video ... (our future real or imagined, the new habitat, that I'm sure will be a gas)
