The Shrinking Global population.. (extremist, banks, employment, Putin)

[Listener2307]

Originally Posted by leastprime

Population economics is something I am watching. We've had population declines before.
Add in AI, we are in new uncharted territory.

Isaac Asimov, presented glimpse of population collapse and robotics/AI in his early novellas featuring, R. Daneel Olivaw.

How did I miss that?! I used to love R Daneel Olivaw.


The population decreases I am aware of were the result of plague or other natural disaster. Have we ever had a reduction in population due to low childbirth?..... If so, I am surprised. As far as I know the fertility rate has only gone down, never up.


Uncharted territory?.... You betcha! Japan and South Korea seem to be doing well for now, but global reduction has not yet started, and much of those economies are international in scope.

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Im not sure what this has to do with jealousy?

The gentleman is convinced that the child-free are somehow "jealous", as if they grossly miscalculated and now rue their poor judgment. He has a pro-natalist agenda, evidently viewing it as a lamentable travesty, if the able-bodied and decently-established nevertheless eschew parenthood. Broad lament over a "shrinking global population" is thus a convenient pulpit for preaching the pro-natalist gospel.

I instead view it as a great boon and testament to progress, that in the developed world, reproduction has by and large come to be viewed as optional, and not necessarily even desirable. If this goes global, and the global population consequently shrinks, I view it as a logical next-step in human evolution. But that is the anti-natalism vs. pro-natalism debate... probably beyond the scope of this thread.

[msRB311]

In remember back in the 90s when I was about 12 or so my friends dad said, everyone gets married, it's rare not too. He was basically saying there's nothing really special about it, it's just what people do. Maybe it's because they want to Or because they feel they have to. Same can be said for having kids. Many women in particular seem to have a need for a child. For some it might be one for others, it's many. I honestly don't know many women my age who have no kids but I know they are out there. What also happens is men get multiple women pregnant in their lives. And women also have multiple husbands they end up having kids with (divorced or whatever). It's kind of wild if you think about it. Like why the need to bring all those kids into your mess that you think is so fabulous?

Maybe I have a darker view of the world lately. It isn't all bad, it can be great. I guess I'm just glad some people are being smarter about their reproductive habits.

[blisterpeanuts]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

In today's NY Times is: Young Chinese Women Are Defying the Communist Party

This link WILL get you past the paywall to read the full article.

Still, here are some selected excerpts:

There's a lot more in the article, I hope you read it.

The institution of marriage and parenthood is falling by the wayside in many nations, for many of the reasons we've discussed since the start of this thread.

The “China Observer” channel on YT had a report out yesterday noting the widespread closure of kindergartens and elementary schools in southern China. Entire cities with millions of people are experiencing unprecedented reductions in marriages and childbirth rates. Obstetric facilities are empty and starting to be shuttered.

The situation indeed is unprecedented in its scale and speed of onset. Perhaps Covid-19 played a role, as did the growing hostility in the West toward trade with China.

Coincidentally, I noticed an article posted by ABC this morning on Twitter/X citing the closure of obstetric facilities in many parts of the U.S. (By the way, the article referred to “women and other pregnant people”.)

I believe this is an unrelated trend, however. The U.S. birth rate is much higher than in China, but obstetrics is a high litigation field that doctors have been fleeing from for decades. Liability lawsuits over birth “imperfections” have killed the profession and only the largest hospital consortiums can afford the insurance.

[Mike from back east]

Thanks for that great info.

I found that YT report, very interesting stuff. Here's what one woman said, and it mirrors what I've said several times in this thread. It's only 16 minutes long and I hope our readers click on the link to watch it.

"It's not about having the money to raise a child, or not being able to devote energy to a child. It's that this society doesn't give me confidence in the environment for a child's growth. I think that's a sad reality for many young people. ... We just don't have confidence here with the high housing prices."

Here's the link.

[Mike from back east]

Today must be my day for this topic as here's another story that gets at the birth dearth from the economic side, in The Atlantic, a paywall site that doesn't have gift links for me to use here.

This MSN link should get you the article.


Here's a key excerpt:

If there is one statistic that best captures the transformation of the American economy over the past half century, it may be this: Of Americans born in 1940, 92 percent went on to earn more than their parents; among those born in 1980, just 50 percent did. Over the course of a few decades, the chances of achieving the American dream went from a near-guarantee to a coin flip.

What happened?

One answer is that American voters abandoned the system that worked for their grandparents. From the 1940s through the ’70s, sometimes called the New Deal era, U.S. law and policy were engineered to ensure strong unions, high taxes on the rich, huge public investments, and an expanding social safety net. Inequality shrank as the economy boomed. But by the end of that period, the economy was faltering, and voters turned against the postwar consensus. Ronald Reagan took office promising to restore growth by paring back government, slashing taxes on the rich and corporations, and gutting business regulations and antitrust enforcement. The idea, famously, was that a rising tide would lift all boats. Instead, inequality soared while living standards stagnated and life expectancy fell behind that of peer countries. No other advanced economy pivoted quite as sharply to free-market economics as the United States, and none experienced as sharp a reversal in income, mobility, and public-health trends as America did. Today, a child born in Norway or the United Kingdom has a far better chance of outearning their parents than one born in the U.S.

And people wonder why the birth rate is declining?

[blisterpeanuts]

Not to get into a politico-economic debate here, but The Atlantic is a very left wing outlet and they can be relied upon to bash supply side economics.

Actually, in my opinion Reagan laid the groundwork for the tech boom of the 1990s that doubled or tripled the U.S. economy and left Japan and other countries in the dust.

Japan never recovered from that, and even China, which benefited temporarily from economic colonization by American manufacturers, is now suddenly finding itself out on a limb as the Americans turn away from China.

To explain why Japan, Taiwan (as a major China surrogate/investor), and China are tanking today economically and socially, with suddenly declining birth rates, we need only look at the American preoccupation with "taking back" manufacturing, and simultaneously distractions like climate, gender politics, and DEI.

If the Americans ever get back on the Reagan train of supply side stimulating growth through private investment and smaller government (though his military outlays were enormous), perhaps the U.S. locomotive can pull these countries out of the doldrums and back to the go-go days of the 1940s-80s.

Rapid economic growth will boost the population, one way or another. Migrants from high birth, low opportunity areas will flock to the high growth, low birth rate areas and things will even out. Though, I doubt Japan will ever admit huge numbers of migrants; there's already a backlash developing there against some troublemakers from the U.S. and Africa.

[Listener2307]

Reagan is a handy target and scapegoat, but that hardly explains why so many countries have a low fertility rate.
It's not an American problem. Personally, I believe population decline was always going to happen. It just had to wait until human society was successful enough to make it happen. As humans struggled they had 6 children or more. But now that the struggle is over, the need to have that many children is gone. It has almost nothing to do with the politics of any particular country.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Listener2307

Reagan is a handy target and scapegoat, but that hardly explains why so many countries have a low fertility rate. It's not an American problem. Personally, I believe population decline was always going to happen. It just had to wait until human society was successful enough to make it happen. As humans struggled they had 6 children or more. But now that the struggle is over, the need to have that many children is gone. It has almost nothing to do with the politics of any particular country.

Thank you. A good observation, bolding mine. The birth rate has been declining in most advanced nations since the pill was introduced in 1958 via FDA approval, regardless of which political party was in power in this and other nations.

[msRB311]

I think women's rights everywhere have led to a lower birth rate. Most women don't start getting pregnant at 20 anymore and continue it on until their 40. If anything some women might not even start until their late 30's/40 so naturally you end up with less kids when you do that. Women (and perhaps men) have realized they werent necessarily placed on this earth simply to reproduce.

I also see a lot more complaints these days about being pregnant, giving birth, post partum depression, having a hard time working and being a mother, the list goes on. I've already mentioned many other reasons but i feel like some people don't want to hear it and keep questioning why there's a birth decline? It seems pretty obvious to me.