The Shrinking Global population.. (Congress, wages, salaries, lawyers)
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I am one of the people who believes in "more for the rest of us" but I do not believe that it applies to every item in existence today. With population decline there will be more land / space, water, food and other basic items for each individual person. The area where it will hit hard will be advanced manufacturing with complicated supply chains. This means semi-conductors and everything that contains semiconductors. As I grow older I feel like I need the semiconductor-based products less and less and honestly I would be very happy if society lost the capability to manufacture smartphones and returned to basic cellular phones. The digital arena seems great but it comes with a dark side of mass surveillance and tracking. I'd be happy if that all disappeared and I'd relish a return to the analog world.
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The same thoughts have crossed my mind as well.
I believe in fact that as society ages and technology continues to mature and evolve, more people will demand simpler products. There's probably a pretty good market for a simple cell phone - no camera, no apps, no heavy battery - just a phone phone that phones and doesn't app app. Someone will come up with one. Better than a flip because it'll do video calls, and probably texts, but other than that, just a light little plastic thing that you can drop on the floor, or in the swimming pool, and it'll keep on working. And recharge it once a month or so.
Ditto many other things. Cars will become simpler even as they add amazing features like self-driving and electric drivetrains. Eventually a car will be so simple and cheap that the clunky, massively engineered giants of yore will seem like dinosaurs. They'll be made by robots (and, for the elderly, probably driven by robots as well).
As these products become more mass produced and commoditized, it'll spread throughout the developing world as well. In a way, we'll become more like the 3rd World.
I believe the mass importation of cheap labor into the U.S. and Europe is misplaced; these people won't have jobs in 10-15 years. Mistake. They should stay home, or go home, and help build their countries. There's no future for most of them here.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AtkinsonDan
I am one of the people who believes in "more for the rest of us" but I do not believe that it applies to every item in existence today. With population decline there will be more land / space, water, food and other basic items for each individual person. The area where it will hit hard will be advanced manufacturing with complicated supply chains. This means semi-conductors and everything that contains semiconductors. As I grow older I feel like I need the semiconductor-based products less and less and honestly I would be very happy if society lost the capability to manufacture smartphones and returned to basic cellular phones. The digital arena seems great but it comes with a dark side of mass surveillance and tracking. I'd be happy if that all disappeared and I'd relish a return to the analog world.
The same thoughts have crossed my mind as well.
Basically My thoughts too (). As for semiconductors, the need for newsprint is virtually non-existent because of semiconductors (). Writing can be done away with "smilies" and "emoticons". And what is left will be smilies of poops, and emoticons of crying.
Much too wordy, and my reply can be shorten to: Same thinking.
Just imagine, you could easily live on $1/week in those days, own a patch of land, build your own house, etc. It was a true pioneering society with all the pluses and minuses that implies.
The U.S. today, like the rest of the industrialized world, is an overdeveloped, overcrowded mess. The only way out of this, in my opinion, is a gradual slowing of population growth, without falling into the top-heavy geriatric situation of Japan and other aging nations.
No doubt that's not going to happen as those many who are aging decided that having children wasn't all that it was cracked up to be ...
In looking at the money and how today's economy rates it, will the $30.80 be valued as $1.00 in about 200 years? Or will the trillion in dollars be sucked up into someone's basement, never to circulate or be seen again?
There are trillions of dollars in circulation and over 3 million people in the u.s. to circulate it; 8 billion in the world all playing their part in cash flow. When the population numbers really begin to shrink, how will governments manage, debt, wages and the flow of cash?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AtkinsonDan
I am one of the people who believes in "more for the rest of us" but I do not believe that it applies to every item in existence today. With population decline there will be more land / space, water, food and other basic items for each individual person. The area where it will hit hard will be advanced manufacturing with complicated supply chains. This means semi-conductors and everything that contains semiconductors. As I grow older I feel like I need the semiconductor-based products less and less and honestly I would be very happy if society lost the capability to manufacture smartphones and returned to basic cellular phones. The digital arena seems great but it comes with a dark side of mass surveillance and tracking. I'd be happy if that all disappeared and I'd relish a return to the analog world.
The same thoughts have crossed my mind as well.
"More for the rest of us"? Land, water and food all come at a price, through companies who love to see profits on their balance sheets. Price will more than quadruple for sure when the average population numbers begin to lessen. Manufacturing and supply chains, just may have to close their doors, as affording operations with fewer buyers just may prove to be most difficult.
Never mind the digital age --- back in time to the dark ages perhaps, where most everything that could be had was made at the hands of the person needing it and safety was something a person achieved with a colt 45.
Peter Zeihan addresses this issue in his book, Accidental Superpower. Africans and middle easterners immigrate to Europe, South Americans go to US and sometimes Canada.
My own thinking is that, in the distant future this is where people will congregate. Europe and North America share both a political system and an geography that works for people.
It would be hard to make a case that Africa or South America would some day be abandoned, but it is easy to imagine that several countries on those continents will become non-functioning, with neither imports nor exports that amount to much.
Never in the history of humans have weaker nationals invaded power nations without much of a fight. Every potent country have walls and powerful armies to fight off invaders.
Which is why the West is dying and the super power will be in the east. Once these invaders pollute the gene pools of the West it is game over.
When your daughters will be happy to interbreed with these 3rd world invaders then you know it's time.
Never in the history of humans have weaker nationals invaded power nations without much of a fight. Every potent country have walls and powerful armies to fight off invaders.
Which is why the West is dying and the super power will be in the east. Once these invaders pollute the gene pools of the West it is game over.
When your daughters will be happy to interbreed with these 3rd world invaders then you know it's time.
My Chinese sister (age 82) by a different father, takes great umbrage at your racist remark. Our mother "interbred" with one of the "invaders" in 1941 so we actually have a lot of experience with "gene pool polluting".
It didn't pollute the gene pool much, though. Sis has done very well, as has her daughter, whose lineage is Japanese, Chinese and Irish. Sis has a masters degree from Chicago Art Institute; Daughter has Masters in business from Berkeley in business and French.
I will ask the moderators to leave your message for all to see, though. Population migration and attitude shift are intertwined and it is important that every attitude be displayed.
FWIW, Daughter's father - that would be my brother in law - Is Japanese. He spent part of his childhood in an internment camp in Arizona, since he was considered an invader during WW2. He remembers it as a pleasant experience, but his parents, now deceased, recount how they were moved out of a home they had lived in for years and sent to live in a barracks. "Invasion" by "3rd world" people has been going on for a very long time.
He got even by becoming a design engineer.
Last edited by Listener2307; 03-08-2024 at 08:52 AM..
I believe the mass importation of cheap labor into the U.S. and Europe is misplaced; these people won't have jobs in 10-15 years. Mistake. They should stay home, or go home, and help build their countries. There's no future for most of them here.
The US has had a surplus of low skilled labor for several decades which is seen in the lack of wage growth at the lower end as compared to higher skill workers. Robots and automation have been eliminating the need for low skill workers. That demographic should be emigrating out to less developed countries where they are needed and they can afford a better quality of life because of the lower cost of living.
The US has had a surplus of low skilled labor for several decades which is seen in the lack of wage growth at the lower end as compared to higher skill workers. Robots and automation have been eliminating the need for low skill workers. That demographic should be emigrating out to less developed countries where they are needed and they can afford a better quality of life because of the lower cost of living.
I really don't think the surplus of low-skilled workers will ever end. Low-skilled people are the ones easiest to replace and as labor costs of people rise, more devices will be developed to replace them.
But that doesn't mean they will gravitate toward the more demanding jobs. I don't think they will. What will happen, I believe, is the workers who do not fit in will simply fall by the wayside. Social programs will have to deal with them.
The increased demand on social programs will further exacerbate an already stressed system of taxes. Older populations are expensive, just as unemployable people are expensive. And the shrinking number of middle class workers will be expected to contribute an ever-increasing portion of their salaries to the care and upkeep of both categories of non-working people.
You and I could list jobs all day that will never be replaced by machines. We could start with emergency workers, go on to health care workers, and to construction workers, roofers, those who maintain roads and power lines and repair your car. We would never run out of jobs that require actual people. But we will - some day - run out of people who work.
Which is why the West is dying and the super power will be in the east. Once these invaders pollute the gene pools of the West it is game over.
When your daughters will be happy to interbreed with these 3rd world invaders then you know it's time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
I will ask the moderators to leave your message for all to see, though. Population migration and attitude shift are intertwined and it is important that every attitude be displayed.
.
Just read this post and was shocked it still stood but the OP is right, it should be left up. The writer of the post has just outed himself, and not in a good way.
The numbers of 'interbreeding' for younger people in the US is higher than ever...and that number is doing nothing but going up. I guess all of us 'interbreeders' should be ashamed of ourselves!
Japan has entered into a recession. Several other countries have, too, but Japan has been losing population for a long time and it looks like a few things have come to a head.
Back in the 90s Japan was the #2 economy in the world, as measured by GDP. The media widely reported Japan would overtake the US, and Japanese officials once referred to America as "Japan's subcontractor". Now Japan has slipped to #4, behind Germany, who, ironically enough, is also in recession territory.
China, who is #2, is expected to slip into recession shortly and will remain in recession for a long time.
Birth rate has been coming down for some years, but last year only 800,000 babies were born in Japan - the smallest number since record keeping began in 1899!
The population in Japan is aging and old people do not spend money the way youngsters do. So now, Japan cannot find buyers for their local goods and services. Deflation, where prices drop, is expected to soon be the norm and may go on for many years....
Is that what is going to happen to the rest of the countries whose population becomes smaller and older?.... Deflation and contraction? Sure seems like it to me.
Japan has entered into a recession. Several other countries have, too, but Japan has been losing population for a long time and it looks like a few things have come to a head.
Back in the 90s Japan was the #2 economy in the world, as measured by GDP. The media widely reported Japan would overtake the US, and Japanese officials once referred to America as "Japan's subcontractor". Now Japan has slipped to #4, behind Germany, who, ironically enough, is also in recession territory.
China, who is #2, is expected to slip into recession shortly and will remain in recession for a long time.
Birth rate has been coming down for some years, but last year only 800,000 babies were born in Japan - the smallest number since record keeping began in 1899!
The population in Japan is aging and old people do not spend money the way youngsters do. So now, Japan cannot find buyers for their local goods and services. Deflation, where prices drop, is expected to soon be the norm and may go on for many years....
Is that what is going to happen to the rest of the countries whose population becomes smaller and older?.... Deflation and contraction? Sure seems like it to me.
This presenter certainly makes it sound like Japan is in grim condition. Whereas, one might also note that it is an exceedingly safe society with very little crime, and the cost of living there is not too unreasonable, especially food and transportation.
I found another town in Japan that is bucking the trend: Akashi, in western Japan, has a fertility rate of 1.65, versus the national average 1.3 (the article was written in 2023 and uses data from 2022 and previous). They achieved this the same way that Nagi did, which I wrote about earlier in this thread: by subsidizing the cost of having children and caring for them. Now Akashi has 300,000 population and rising rapidly, as young couples flock there to enjoy the benefits of having a baby.
P.M. Kishida is pushing similar benefits at a national scale, but some say it's not sufficient to move the needle. We'll see. Japan, unlike the U.S. and Europe, does not believe in mass immigration and is rather strict about who they will allow in and for how long.
I read an article recently about Chinese ex-patriots moving to Tokyo for extended periods; they have money, they are sophisticated and fashionable, and are seeking a stable, safe place to live that has excellent health care, shopping, etc. Their problem is that they don't speak the language, can limp along by reading the kanji which are often but not always similar in meaning to Chinese characters.
Interestingly, there's also a growing, but somewhat under the radar, pro-Japan movement in China, that is, young people who greatly admire Japanese culture such as manga and anime much as in the West. Were China not run by such a nasty Communist regime, it's possible these two countries could come together and share their strengths.
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). As for semiconductors, the need for newsprint is virtually non-existent because of semiconductors (
). Writing can be done away with "smilies" and "emoticons". And what is left will be smilies of poops, and emoticons of crying.
