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Mass immigration/migration from Africa and some central Asian and middle eastern countries to Europe, United States, Canada, Australia, etc is the future. The population of these nations are choosing not to reproduce and will need workers in the future. They will have no choice, but to reach out and recruit immigrants. A nation will collapse with 2 elderly to one worker.
The best thing a nation can do is create a system of immigration and assimilation. Canada seems to do a good job with this.
Otherwise start having more children or face a dire situation.
Mass immigration/migration from Africa and some central Asian and middle eastern countries to Europe, United States, Canada, Australia, etc is the future. The population of these nations are choosing not to reproduce and will need workers in the future. They will have no choice, but to reach out and recruit immigrants. A nation will collapse with 2 elderly to one worker.
The best thing a nation can do is create a system of immigration and assimilation. Canada seems to do a good job with this.
Otherwise start having more children or face a dire situation.
Australia has relied heavily on immigration for the past nearly eighty years. Currently the highest number of immigrants are coming from India, China, the UK and the Phillipines (New Zealand is not counted) we had a half million arrivals the last financial year compared to our total population of 25 million. About 29% of the population were born overseas. Whereas at the conclusion of WW2, it was 10%.
There is a down side which apparently Canada is also experiencing, namely housing supply. Sydney and Vancouver are the second and third least affordable world cities where the median home price is at least twelve times the median household income.
Thus mass immigration has to be very closely planned and implemented if it is to be successful.
There is a down side which apparently Canada is also experiencing, namely housing supply. Sydney and Vancouver are the second and third least affordable world cities where the median home price is at least twelve times the median household income.
Thus mass immigration has to be very closely planned and implemented if it is to be successful.
That is why happens in highly centralized nations, where not only do immigrants flock to 1-2 major cities, but that's where most of the best jobs happen to be. How is real estate in Perth or Brisbane? Or Calgary or Winnipeg or Quebec City? Real estate is notoriously costly in London, but what about Bristol or Manchester or Leeds?
We see the same in the US, principally in the major coastal cities.
The problem isn't mismanagement of immigration per se, but a stilted and lopsided concentration of resources and opportunities, in a small handful of places, where "everyone" wants to live. Take Germany as a counterexample. It had a flood of immigrants in 2015. One reason that it was able to absorb them, is that Germany doesn't have 1-2 overwhelmingly dominant cities. Berlin isn't that much bigger or more appealing that Munich or Bremen or Dusseldorf. The immigrants can fan-out, as can fresh native graduates say in engineering or finance.
Vancouver is unusual, because it's the one major Canadian city with a pleasant climate. Canada can't do much about that, but Australia can. Most of the coastline is...mostly similar in terms of climate, yes? Just don't go too far inland, and you'll be OK. Lots of open land, to build new cities, if desired. But is there enough desire?
Mass immigration/migration from Africa and some central Asian and middle eastern countries to Europe, United States, Canada, Australia, etc is the future. The population of these nations are choosing not to reproduce and will need workers in the future. They will have no choice, but to reach out and recruit immigrants. A nation will collapse with 2 elderly to one worker.
The best thing a nation can do is create a system of immigration and assimilation. Canada seems to do a good job with this.
Otherwise start having more children or face a dire situation.
Don’t discount the potential of robots. Tesla’s Optimus for example, which is rapidly becoming capable of replacing a manual laborer for many menial tasks.
Then there is A.I., rapidly replacing the white collar class. Already these systems can write prose and music, computer programs, diagnose illnesses, answer the phone, provide financial analysis, etc.
The question is not whether we’ll have enough people to do all the work, but whether we’ll need any people at all, in a couple of decades.
I wanted to clarify a bit. Sometimes a jolt can wake up and spurn action better than a long slow trend. No system is perfect, but there can be underlying problems that are better off addressed now than trying to use immigrants as a band aid to keep up business as usual. For China, this sudden drop in birth rates might be better to make adjustments to the way their society uses top down dictates that put people either under too much or not enough work. In the US part of the problem is the way immigrants themselves are treated as employers always having someone else knocking on the door if they mistreat their current set of workers.
I wanted to clarify a bit. Sometimes a jolt can wake up and spurn action better than a long slow trend. No system is perfect, but there can be underlying problems that are better off addressed now than trying to use immigrants as a band aid to keep up business as usual. For China, this sudden drop in birth rates might be better to make adjustments to the way their society uses top down dictates that put people either under too much or not enough work. In the US part of the problem is the way immigrants themselves are treated as employers always having someone else knocking on the door if they mistreat their current set of workers.
Jolts can radically change policy, but they won't change culture. Pearl Harbor and 9/11 were sudden jolts that greatly altered policy, with repercussions lasting for generations (perhaps forever). They changed all sorts of laws, budgetary considerations, even civic priorities. But they didn't radically transform core cultural postulates. I think that the same would be faced by a modern China, grappling with its population-stagnation problem. Sure, policy can be changed, even more quickly than in the US, because of the top-down authoritarian society. But to change cultural attitudes about family structure, the role of women in the family, urban vs. rural and so on... that's really, really hard.
The culture of large families, has been the human norm since basically forever... up to, depending on the place, maybe a century ago. France was likely the first, already in the mid 19th century, to witness a stark reduction in birthrate. In the US we had the much-celebrated baby boom, some 70 years ago. What are the odds, that some sudden Black Swan type of event, would suddenly spur a change in the modern culture, reverting to a recrudescence of the Baby Boom?
Jolts can radically change policy, but they won't change culture. Pearl Harbor and 9/11 were sudden jolts that greatly altered policy, with repercussions lasting for generations (perhaps forever). They changed all sorts of laws, budgetary considerations, even civic priorities. But they didn't radically transform core cultural postulates. I think that the same would be faced by a modern China, grappling with its population-stagnation problem. Sure, policy can be changed, even more quickly than in the US, because of the top-down authoritarian society. But to change cultural attitudes about family structure, the role of women in the family, urban vs. rural and so on... that's really, really hard.
The culture of large families, has been the human norm since basically forever... up to, depending on the place, maybe a century ago. France was likely the first, already in the mid 19th century, to witness a stark reduction in birthrate. In the US we had the much-celebrated baby boom, some 70 years ago. What are the odds, that some sudden Black Swan type of event, would suddenly spur a change in the modern culture, reverting to a recrudescence of the Baby Boom?
Very true.
I'd argue that the pains of overpopulation, like the current housing issue in the US or the unemployment in China are policy errors, so that's where jolts help. The family size issue is not something that will be jolted though, that's a cultural thing that will be gradual.
That is why happens in highly centralized nations, where not only do immigrants flock to 1-2 major cities, but that's where most of the best jobs happen to be. How is real estate in Perth or Brisbane? Or Calgary or Winnipeg or Quebec City? Real estate is notoriously costly in London, but what about Bristol or Manchester or Leeds?
We see the same in the US, principally in the major coastal cities.
The problem isn't mismanagement of immigration per se, but a stilted and lopsided concentration of resources and opportunities, in a small handful of places, where "everyone" wants to live. Take Germany as a counterexample. It had a flood of immigrants in 2015. One reason that it was able to absorb them, is that Germany doesn't have 1-2 overwhelmingly dominant cities. Berlin isn't that much bigger or more appealing that Munich or Bremen or Dusseldorf. The immigrants can fan-out, as can fresh native graduates say in engineering or finance.
Vancouver is unusual, because it's the one major Canadian city with a pleasant climate. Canada can't do much about that, but Australia can. Most of the coastline is...mostly similar in terms of climate, yes? Just don't go too far inland, and you'll be OK. Lots of open land, to build new cities, if desired. But is there enough desire?
Relaesate is very pricy accross Australia - not just at Sydney Levels.
Hoewever at the moment both Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing a lot of outward movement to both Perth and Brisbane. Which natually pushes up prices in thoes cities, to the extent that Brisbanes real estate is now more expensive than Melbournes, and perth is also Catching up to Melbourne Fast
Mass immigration/migration from Africa and some central Asian and middle eastern countries to Europe, United States, Canada, Australia, etc is the future. The population of these nations are choosing not to reproduce and will need workers in the future. They will have no choice, but to reach out and recruit immigrants. A nation will collapse with 2 elderly to one worker.
The best thing a nation can do is create a system of immigration and assimilation. Canada seems to do a good job with this.
Otherwise start having more children or face a dire situation.
If there is mass emigration from these other countries does that mean those countries are overpopulated? And if ever increasing population is the holy grail why are these heavily populated countries not doing well and losing their citizens?
I have heard it argued that women joining the workforce in mass in the 70's caused inflation and the downfall of our economy and quality of life. Seem like before that there was no problem with elderly or non-workers to workers that would collapse the nation. Based on that argument why would more workers be a good thing.
Looking at the chart on statista it looks as if the only age range decreasing in employment rate is 16-24 year olds while all others have taken a sharp increase including those 55 and older. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...t-rate-by-age/
The employment ratio in 2005 was 63% while the population was 287 million, in 2023 the population is at 342 million with an employment ratio of 60%
Looking at the current age distribution and the workforce statistics I just don't see this oncoming dire situation.
A healthy country needs a strong economy that broadly benefits its people, plus the rule of law. And it needs to be able to feed itself, or at least buy food using its strong economy.
A country that's growing because of high birth rates but lacks these things will tend to see out-migration.
And yes, countries with low birthrates need strong immigration to avoid the worst worker/dependent imbalances.
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